European Earnings Preview: ASML (ASML NA) to report Q1'2026 results on 15th April; analysts expect an upgrade to current sales forecast

• ASML (ASML NA) is expected to report its Q1 2026 results on Wednesday at 06:00 BST; an investor call, where both its CEO and CFO will start at 14:00 BST. Options markets indicate earnings-related volatility of around 5.5% in either direction.
• Focus for this report will be on any updates to guidance, where analysts at both Citi and UBS expect the chip-maker to raise its sales forecast to the upper end of its current guidance. It currently forecasts FY 2026 sales between EUR 34-39bln.
• That aside, investors will look at how the Co. describes the AI environment, and whether it still sees a strong demand environment. Elsewhere, investors will be cognizant of the Middle East situation, particularly given the supply constraints to helium, which is a key material used to make AI chips. Finally, there may also be some focus on reports earlier in the month, which suggested that US lawmakers will propose a crackdown on chip tool sales to China. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the Co. has already sounded cautiousness surrounding China, which “embeds” some of the uncertainty.
• It is also worth highlighting that ASML will no longer publish quarterly orders, which have long been used to give an indication of consumer demand; therefore, investors will look towards broader metrics such as sales.
• Weightings: 3.67% in STOXX 600; 7.50% in Euro Stoxx 50; 32.61% in STXE 600 (Tech);

ASML Earnings Expectations (EUR):

• Sales: 8.69bln (prev. 7.75bln Y/Y, prev. guided 8.2-8.9bln)
• Gross Profit: 4.54bln (prev. 4.18bn Y/Y)
• Gross Margin: 52.2% (prev. 54% Y/Y, prev. guided 51-53%)
• Net Profit: 2.58bln (prev. 2.36bln Y/Y)