European Market Wrap - 15th September 2026

• European equity futures were in the red; US equity futures follow suit.
• G10s broadly lower against the USD, with mild underperformance in the JPY.
• Crude benchmarks choppy; initially lower on reports Oman held talks with the US, before reversing on Libya's NOC stating that production and operations have been suspended.

EQUITIES

• European bourses initially began the session entirely in the red but has bounced off lows, helped by the reversal seen in energy benchmarks. Catalysts for the reversal in crude prices are two-fold: 1) Oman's FM spoke with US Secretary of State Rubio to discuss regional developments and efforts to de-escalate tension, and 2) constructive commentary from Ukrainian and Russian officials about potential de-escalation measures. However, the downside in energy prices have reversed after Libya's NOC warned of force majeure while Saudi Arabia reportedly informed European oil refiners of the cancellation of crude loadings.
• Sectors ended with a mixed picture. Telecoms topped the sector pile, closely followed by Energy and Utilities. To the downside remained Financial Services, Consumer Products & Services and Food, Beverages & Tobacco.
• Key stories include: Acciona Energia (+4.5%), EQT and Norway's Sovereign Fund partner to bid for the Co.; Puig (-3.1%), purchases the remaining 50% stake in Isdin for EUR 1.2bln; Telenor (+0.3%), charged on suspicion of violating the Sanction Act in Myanmar; Essity (-1.4%), reportedly preparing to start the sales process for its consumer tissue business.
• US cash equities opened lower and drove to the downside amid the energy updates. Giving comments at a Barclays conference, Wells Fargo CFO pointed to NIM being better than initially expected, which has driven shares higher by 2.7%.

FX

• G10s were mostly lower against the USD to varying degrees. JPY was the underperformer on widening yield differentials; closely joined by the Kiwi and EUR.
• Initial action saw the USD much stronger against all G10 peers, benefiting from stronger energy prices and elevated yields. The index then waned off best levels as crude benchmarks moved lower in afternoon trade; but this soon reversed, as oil prices moved higher once again. Focus now remains on the Fed policy decision on Wednesday. (A full preview can be found on the Newsquawk Research Suite)
• JPY underperformed throughout the day, on the back of widening yield differentials. As mentioned in prior pieces, the JPY would likely require a hawkish BoJ this Friday to spur another bout of downside in USD/JPY. The BoJ will likely deliver a 25bps hike, so focus will be on whether or not policymakers guide for a faster pace of rate hikes.
• GBP has been hampered by the broad USD strength. Earlier, markets saw the release of a mixed Jobs/Wages report, whereby Unemployment remained steady at 4.9% (exp. 5%), whilst the wages components were in-line. Overall, it will not do much to shift views at the BoE ahead of Thursday’s meeting, where expectations are for rates to remain on hold.

FIXED

• Global fixed income benchmarks steadily fell throughout the European morning but have since reversed as energy prices continued to fall. Catalysts for the reversal in crude prices are two-fold: 1) Oman's FM spoke with US Secretary of State Rubio to discuss regional developments and efforts to de-escalate tension, and 2) constructive commentary from Ukrainian and Russian officials about potential de-escalation measures. However, the downside in energy prices has reversed after Libya's NOC warned of force majeure while Saudi Arabia reportedly informed European oil refiners of the cancellation of crude loadings.
• USTs (-9 ticks) fell to a trough of 105-21 before reversing, which has helped bring the US 10yr yield back to the 5.00% mark. Outside of the above geopolitics, newsflow has been light ahead of the 20-Year Note auction. To compare, the Japanese 20-year received decent demand, bringing in a b/c 4.01x and a tighter price tail than prior.
• Gilts (U/C) were pressured early in the morning and recently came under renewed downside amid the recent energy updates but outperformed their peers. Early in the session, the UK ONS released a mixed jobs/wages report, which had little impact on Gilts at the open. The Unemployment Rate remained at 4.9% (exp. 5%), whilst wages were in-line. On the supply side, The Telegraph reported that the BoE has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts.
• Bunds (-7 ticks) were initially subdued and have since rebounded slightly but have now trundled back lower amid the latest energy updates. Little in terms of news flow on German debt. On the supply front, the 2.70% 2028 Schatz auction brought in weak demand, with the b/c falling below the prior.
• The Bank of England has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts, the Telegraph reported.
• Analog Devices (ADI) files to sell USD-denominated 5-parter.
• UK sold GBP 750mln 4.25% 2040 Gilt via Tender: b/c 3.67x, Average Yield 5.640%.
• Germany sold EUR 3.817bln vs Exp. 5bln 2.70% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.26x (prev. 1.49x), average yield 3.27% (prev. 2.85%), retention 23.66% (prev. 23.4%).
• UK sold GBP 1.25bln 2029 Gilt via Tender: b/c 3.65x (prev. 3.61x), average yield 4.818% (prev. 4.062%), Tail 0.4bps.

COMMODITIES

• Crude - WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures reversed their earlier gains as the session progressed, despite the Middle East conflict continuing to underpin the complex, with Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline still offline following attacks, Riyadh seeking to boost shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran reiterating that the Strait remains closed and under its control. Pressure was seen after Oman’s Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State discussed efforts to de-escalate regional tensions, before crude recovered somewhat after Libya’s NOC suspended production and operations at three oil fields following the closure of a valve on the Al-Hamada-Zawiya pipeline. Further, it was recently reported that Saudi Arabia is reportedly informing some European oil refiners that their Sep' loading of crude cargoes are cancelled. Ultimately, WTI fell to a USD 101.21/bbl low from a USD 104.21/bbl high (vs yesterday’s USD 100.53-104.95/bbl range). Brent fell to a USD 105.10/bbl low from a USD 108.43/bbl high (vs yesterday’s USD 104.80-109.80/bbl range).
• Natural Gas - Dutch TTF extended its downside after earlier trading near recent highs, although elevated energy-supply risks continued to underpin European gas ahead of winter. TTF fell to an EUR 78.73/MWh low from a EUR 83.42/MWh high and traded around EUR 79.50/MWh (vs yesterday’s EUR 79.52-84.50/MWh range) heading into session end.
• Precious Metals - Precious metals were mixed as the firmer USD and elevated oil prices reinforced expectations of a Fed hike tomorrow. Spot gold extended its downside below USD 4,300/oz and fell to a USD 4,261.52/oz low from a USD 4,317.37/oz high (vs yesterday’s USD 4,253-4,355/oz range), remaining below its 100 DMA (USD 4,328.90/oz). Spot silver fared better, recovering to a USD 63.94/oz high from a USD 62.56/oz low.
• Base Metals - Base metals remained subdued amid the firmer USD, softer risk tone and mixed Chinese activity data, with weak retail sales and investment offset somewhat by stronger industrial production. Copper was also pressured by fresh deliveries into LME warehouses signalling easing supply tightness. COMEX copper traded within a USD 6.32-6.34/lb range, while 3M LME copper traded on either side of USD 14k/t in a USD 13,927.97-14,124.83/t range.
• Saudi Arabia is reportedly informing some European oil refiners that their Sep' loading of crude cargoes are cancelled, according to sources.
• Karachaganak output is reportedly to drop up to 450k tons during repair, IFX reported.
• Polish Energy Minister said the meeting with US Secretary Burgum discussed LNG, nuclear energy, new technologies, and further cooperation in Central and Eastern Europeupply security,.
• Libya's NOC said production and operations have been suspended in 3 oil fields after a valve was closed on the Al-Hamada-Zawiya pipeline, may need to declare force majeure if its remains closed.
• German's Finance Minister Klingbeil said we must reduce the burden caused by gas prices and find alternative funding, decisions must be reached quickly.
• UAE’s ADNOC bought millions of barrels of discounted Iraqi crude in tenders for August and September, Iraqi energy sources say.
• Azerbaijan's gas exports in Jan-Aug fell 0.5% Y/Y to 1.64 bcm.
• Orlen (PKN PW) bought several cargoes of non-Middle Eastern crude as Saudi oil imports face disruption risks, sources say.
• Polish PM Tusk said if the President backs the windfall tax, the government will cap fuel prices.
• Half of Russia’s leading diesel-producing refineries have reduced output following drone strikes. The Kirishi refinery has fully shut after Ukrainian drone attacks, while Trump urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian diesel infrastructure.
• Oman November OSP for November delivery set at USD 128.48/bbl.
• Libya's oil and gas minister said they plan to raise nat gas production to 4bln SCFD within 3-5 years.
• Iran’s South Pars Refinery 8 is scheduled to resume gas production in September after major repairs aimed at ensuring sustainable supplies for the coming winter, IRIB reported. The overhaul is underway using Iranian products and is expected to be completed as planned.

EUROPEAN DATA

• European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep) 25.8 vs. Exp. 39.9 (Prev. 31.4).
• European Trade Balance (Jul) 14.2B vs. Exp. 3.7B (Prev. 7.2B).
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep) 34.7 vs. Exp. 37 (Prev. 34.2).
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Sep) -47.1 vs. Exp. -52.2 (Prev. -61.1).
• German Wholesale Prices (Aug YY) 6.8% (Prev. 5.3%).
• German Wholesale Prices (Aug MM) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%).
• Italian Trade Balance (Jul) 8.240B vs. Exp. 4.77B (Prev. 4.232B).
• UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (Jul 3MYr) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%).
• UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 3MYr) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.2%).
• UK Employment Change (Jul) 67K (Prev. 83K).
• UK Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.9% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.9%). ONS:. T
• UK Claimant Count Change (Aug) 27.8K vs. Exp. 8.3K (Prev. -11.8K).
• Spanish Core CPI Final (Aug YY) 2.9% (Prev. 3%).
• Spanish CPI Final (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.3%).
• Spanish CPI Final (Aug YY) 4.3% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 3.6%).
• Spanish HICP Final (Aug YY) 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 3.9%).
• Spanish HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.0%).
• French CPI Final (Aug YY) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.1%).
• French HICP Final (Aug YY) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.4%).
• French HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%).
• French CPI Final (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%).
• Norwegian Trade Balance (Aug) 100.4B (Prev. 84.3B).

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• French PM Lecornu plans to keep government spending at "exactly" the same level in 2027, as was in 2026, Les Echos reported citing a letter.
• EU government officials is to meet on Thursday to discuss how to set global AI rules, Politico reported citing sources.
• German Chancellor Merz said China distorts trade with subsidized overproduction. Corporation and trade have been significantly reduced through new US tariff rules. Will respond to price gouging on fuel, adding that for many people the burden has reached the limit of what they can bear.
• Italian Senate is reportedly set to approve PM Meloni's electoral reform.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• China and US reportedly discuss cutting tariffs on agriculture and energy, according to sources.
• China Steel Association said it condemns overproduction and urges controls; urges supply-side remedies, and strictly enforces output controls.

CENTRAL BANKS

• Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to hike rates by 25bp in September and December (vs previous forecast for no policy changes this year).
• ECB’s Moulin said the current increase in long-term bond yields reflects higher supply and increased inflation expectations. Inflation outlook justified recent ECB rate rise. Member states must take steps to reduce budget deficits. said France’s debt agency has no problem selling bonds, with no difficulty for the French Treasury in raising funds. said there are no plans to change mortgage lending rules in France.
• Brazil’s central bank sold 20k reverse FX swap contracts at auction.
• Bank of Israel minutes say four of five MPC members voted to cut rates to 3.25% on Sep 1, while one voted to keep rates unchanged.
• NBP's Dabrowski said rates are to remain on hold for 1 or 2 quarters, while after Q1'27 cuts are more likely than hikes.
• Polish CPI Final (Aug MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%).
• Polish CPI Final (Aug YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%).
• Polish Central Bank's Zarzecki said there's minimal room for Polish rate changes until end-2026.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukraine President Zelensky said Ukraine is prepared to take de-escalation measures, but partners must ensure Russia is sincere in implementing measures affecting Ukraine's critical infrastructure and that those measures are long-term and reliable.
• Russian TU-95MS strategic bombers fly over neutral waters of Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea.
• Denmark’s Defence Minister said a Russian frigate fired illumination flares that landed within metres of a Danish military helicopter without warning, adding that Russia’s willingness to take risks has increased. Denmark does not plan to seek NATO Article 4 or 5 consultations.
• Kremlin said Russia will stay in touch with the US on the energy truce idea, supports Trump’s proposed ceasefire on Ukraine energy targets. Kremlin said global energy prices would fall if sanctions are lifted, while stressing the need to ensure safe navigation and shipping.
• Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov plans to meet US Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, RIA reported.
• A top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee is investigating a Russian oligarch’s reported financial involvement in a celebration linked to Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding, Axios reported.
• Half of Russia’s leading diesel-producing refineries have reduced output following drone strikes. The Kirishi refinery has fully shut after Ukrainian drone attacks, while Trump urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian diesel infrastructure.
• Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia is ready for reasonable compromises on Ukraine, IFX reported; Russia will not stop fighting during peace talks.
• Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the US has never offered concessions to Russia over the Ukraine conflict in exchange for Moscow’s assistance in resolving the Iranian issue, Interfax reported. said Russia will fulfil all supply obligations despite Western obstacles and is restructuring logistics to bypass them.
• Ukraine President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces made new gains at the Syzran refinery and struck a UAV production facility in Taganrog, a UAV preparation and launch base in the Oryol region, and targets in the Black Sea.
• A Russian presidential aide warned that if Poland enters a war against Russia, Moscow would use its entire military arsenal.

MIDDLE EAST

• US military attacked 2 Iranian small boats on Monday after the IRGC tried to steal a Navy drone patrolling Hormuz, Axios reported citing sources. A US official said that Saudi had "significantly increased" the number of oil tankers its sends through the Strait, as fighting with the Houthis in the Red Sea escalates. Roughly 14mln barrels of oil are exported through the waterway daily, the official noted.
• Israel and Saudi Arabia are in contact through US CENTCOM to provide Saudi Arabia with intelligence assistance against the Houthis, N12 journalist posted.
• Saudi Arabia said that it will respond "firmly" to the Houthi attacks.
• China Foreign Ministry said Iran Foreign Minister will visit China on 16th September.
• Yemeni armed forces aircraft struck missile launchers at Taiz airport and Houthi positions in Khadir district, south of Taiz, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iran Government plane lands in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, according to live tracking data.
• Iran’s South Pars Refinery 8 is scheduled to resume gas production in September after major repairs aimed at ensuring sustainable supplies for the coming winter, IRIB reported. The overhaul is underway using Iranian products and is expected to be completed as planned.
• Iranian government aircraft that departed Tehran is reportedly preparing to land in Saudi Arabia, raising speculation that an Iranian delegation may be heading to Riyadh amid escalating Saudi-Houthi tensions, Kann News reporter said.
• Iran's IRGC said controlled explosions may be heard in southern Isfahan province until 13:00 local time today.
• Oman’s Foreign Minister spoke by phone with the US secretary of state to discuss regional developments, Oman’s state news agency said. During which they discussed the latest regional developments and the successive transformations unfolding in the region, exchanged views on efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions and containing their repercussions, and creating conditions for continuing diplomatic endeavors and addressing outstanding issues in a manner that supports the region's security and stability. The call also covered a number of regional files and issues of common interest.
• CEO of Oman LNG said on Tuesday that the crisis related to the Strait of Hormuz will end soon, reported Mehr News.
• Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said Qatar is working with regional and international partners to reach a consensus on the Strait of Hormuz, Al Araby TV reported.
• Oman said oil tanker Elgaia is being towed to an Omani port after an engine-room fire following an attack off the Omani coast.
• reported of explosions in multiple Saudi cities, according to Press TV.
• Saudi Civil Defense said "danger has passed from Mecca, Taif, and Jeddah".
• Several explosions were reported in Saudi Arabia's Taif, according to SNN; Saudi civil defense said early warning systems have been activated in Taif, Mecca and Jeddah.
• UKMTO said they received a delayed report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that a vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi holds talks with the leader of Iraq’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).
• The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on Tuesday on the situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to diplomats.
• IRGC said a fourth US MQ-1 has been destroyed east of the Strait of Hormuz, Mehr reported.
• "Missile attack on Saudi Arabia's Khamis Mushait air base", Tasnim reported.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iranian forces have full control of the Strait of Hormuz and will prevent enemy vessels from crossing.

NORTH AMERICAN DATA

• US Redbook (Sep/12 YY) 8.5% (Prev. 8.3%).
• US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep) 7.60 vs. Exp. 14.75 (Prev. 20.60).
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly 16.25K (Prev. 12K).