EUROPEAN OPEN: AAPL announces CEO transition; ABF LN to separate Primark by end-2027; HO FP Q1 sales beat, defence orders jump; VOW3 GY plans 1mln capacity cut by 2028; Ahead, US-Iran peace talks, Warsh Senate hearing

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened higher amid signs Iran may join talks, with improved sentiment ahead of the ceasefire deadline, and today’s peace talks. Apple (AAPL) shares slipped in extended US trading following a CEO transition announcement (see below). Overnight, APAC stocks were mixed, with the region cautious amid uncertainty over US-Iran talks before the ceasefire expires at 20:00EDT on 22nd April, as reports conflicted on timing and whether Tehran would participate. Nonetheless, the latest headlines offered some optimism, with sources saying the US and Iran are expected to reach an agreement by Wednesday and that Pakistan’s PM will ask for a two-week ceasefire extension. Iran is expected to send a delegation to Islamabad for the second round of talks; US VP JD Vance is also expected to lead the US delegation. Pakistani and Iranian sources said the talks remain on schedule and that an agreement could come by Wednesday, though Iran’s judiciary chief warned it is “very possible” negotiations will not produce a result, in which case Tehran would respond to the US interception of an Iranian ship. Oil fell as signs emerged that Iran will attend negotiations in Islamabad, with Brent dropping back below USD 95/bbl after Monday’s rise. Citi warned oil could climb to USD 110/bbl if Strait of Hormuz traffic remains disrupted for another month, adding that global crude and product inventory losses from the US-Iran conflict could reach an estimated 1.3bln bbls if the route stays blocked for a further four weeks. US Treasury yields were little changed in Asian trade ahead of the ceasefire deadline and fresh peace talks. BofA said Treasuries are still pricing in a Middle East war that other asset classes have largely shrugged-off, creating scope for yields to fall as they catch up; its strategists recommend buying 5yr notes and favour steepener trades as markets raise Fed rate cut bets. Gold fell as traders assessed prospects for further US-Iran talks, with bullion dropping below USD 4,800/oz. On today’s radar, traders will watch US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan and Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing for the Fed.
• UK JOBS DATA: The UK labour market showed unexpected resilience in February, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.9% (exp. 5.2%), its lowest since the three months to August 2025; employment rose +25k (prev. 84k), while HMRC payrolls data for March showed a decline -11k (prev. 20k), hinting at softening momentum heading into the spring. Average earnings ex-bonus were 3.6% on a three-month/year basis (exp. 3.5%, prev. 3.8%). The ONS noted that regular wage growth is running at its lowest rate in over five years. Analysts said the figures would be welcomed by both fiscal and monetary policymakers; the unemployment surprise offered a constructive signal given the potential employment spillovers from the Middle East conflict, even as wage pressures remain marginally elevated relative to expectations. Ahead, analysts will be watching vacancy levels, already near five-year lows, and are likely to provide the earliest indication of labour market stress stemming from the external shock; for now, however, the data suggests the market is holding up better than feared.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, Apple (AAPL) stock slipped in extended trading after it announced Tim Cook will become Executive Chairman and John Ternus will become CEO on 1st September; analysts view Ternus’ appointment as a signal of continuity, leveraging his deep hardware expertise, however, some suggested that the sudden timing has raised questions regarding Apple’s AI strategy and upcoming earnings. Atos (ATO FP) narrowed its FY organic revenue view to a fall of 1-5% (prev. previously saw positive growth with a negative scenario of a 5% drop); Q1 organic revenue -11% amid market softness, with revenue ex-disposals at EUR 1.64bln; it flagged a softer-than-expected North America ramp-up, citing client caution in an uncertain environment. In communications, Vivendi (VIV FP) reported Q1 revenue up 1.3% Y/Y to EUR 69mln, driven mainly by Gameloft, which held steady in a tough videogames market, with two new games planned for 2026. Its listed holdings portfolio fell to EUR 4.4bln at end-March from EUR 5.5bln at end-December, before recovering to EUR 5.18bln by 20th April. In industrials, Thales (HO FP) reported Q1 organic sales growth of 9.7% (exp. 7.3%), and defence orders rose 75%, supported by strong defence spending. It booked five defence orders worth more than EUR 100mln each in Q1 (vs one in Q1 2025). In consumer sectors, Amazon (AMZN) and Anthropic are expanding their partnership, with Anthropic committing to spend more than USD 100bln on AWS over 10 years for Trainium, Graviton and up to 5 GW of capacity; Amazon will invest USD 5bln in Anthropic, and up to USD 20bln later, in addition to its previous USD 8bln investment. Associated British Foods (ABF LN) will separate Primark from its food and sugar businesses in a breakup expected to be completed by the end of 2027; the Weston family will retain majority stakes in both companies via Wittington Investments, and both Primark and the remaining food business are expected to be listed on the FTSE 100. Estee Lauder (EL) has reportedly asked JPMorgan for financing of about EUR 5bln for a takeover bid for Puig (PUIG SM); Expansion reports that the deal structure is still being finalised, with mixed consideration between cash and shares under discussion. Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) CEO said it plans to reduce global production capacity by 1mln cars by 2028, stating that overcapacity is not sustainable in the long term. In notable broker updates, Allianz (ALV GY) upgraded at Goldman Sachs; M&G (MNG LN) downgraded at Goldman Sachs; Commerzbank (CBK GY) upgraded at Barclays; Julius Baer (BAER SW) downgraded at Barclays; UBS (UBSG SW) upgraded at Barclays; Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) upgraded at Norne Securities; Tag Immobilien (TEG GY) upgraded at Barclays; JD Wetherspoon (JDW LN) upgraded at Peel Hunt; Kering (KER FP) downgraded at HSBC; Safran (SAF FP) downgraded at Jefferies; Leonardo (LDO IM) downgraded at Jefferies; ArcelorMittal (MT NA) downgraded at Santander; Volvo (VOLCARB SS) downgraded at SEB; Unilever (ULVR LN) upgraded at RBC.

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In Europe, Eurozone and Germany April ZEW sentiment is also due (Eurozone exp. -3.6, prev. -8.5; Germany sentiment exp. -5, prev. -0.5, current conditions exp. -70, prev. -62.9). In North America, US March retail sales are the main focus (exp. 1.4% M/M, prev. 0.6%; exp. 2.4% Y/Y, prev. 3.7%; preview below), alongside the weekly ADP employment change (prev. 39K), pending home sales (prev. -0.8% Y/Y; prev. 1.8% M/M), business inventories, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow update (was prev. tracking Q1 growth of 1.3%).
• EVENTS: US-Iran talks are set to resume in Islamabad, but with a ceasefire expiry looming on Wednesday. The US Senate hearing on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed chair (preview below). Eurogroup Foreign Affairs Council is also meeting.
• SPEAKERS: Fed’s Waller (voter, dove) will speak on modernising reserve bank operations, and is not expected to comment on monetary policy given that the central bank is in blackout ahead of its 29th April confab. ECB’s Nagel (hawk) and de Guindos (dovish; no text expected). Riksbank’s Bunge will speak on macroeconomics and decision-making psychology.
• SUPPLY: Germany sells EUR 6bln of 2028 Schatz. The UK sells GBP 5bln of 2029 debt.
• ENERGY: After hours, API publishes its gauge of weekly energy inventories. WTI May 2026 futures expire.
• EARNINGS: Notable companies reporting today include: GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth (UNH), RTX (RTX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Danaher (DHR), Chubb (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), Northrop Grumman (NOC), 3M Company (MMM), D.R. Horton (DHI), MSCI (MSCI), EQT (EQT), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Halliburton (HAL), United Airlines (UAL), Northern Trust (NTRS), Synchrony Financial (SYF), W. R. Berkley (WRB), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Equifax (EFX), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Genuine Parts (GPC), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), Sonoco (SON).
• PREVIEW - WARSH SENATE HEARING (15:00BST/10:00EDT): Kevin Warsh is set to tell lawmakers that Federal Reserve independence on interest rates is essential, but must be earned through rigorous, transparent decision-making. He is expected to argue that elected officials’ views do not, in themselves, threaten that independence, while stressing price stability, accountability and keeping the Fed focused on its statutory remit. At the same time, he is likely to support working with the Administration and Congress on non-monetary matters. The Senate hearing is likely to centre on Fed independence, given Warsh’s close ties to the White House, alongside his views on inflation, labour markets, regulation and financial disclosures. His name appearing in documents linked to Jeffrey Epstein is also expected to draw scrutiny. Lawmakers are likely to test his commitment to central bank autonomy amid political pressure for rate cuts, while his inflation framework may be examined for a hawkish bias and a willingness to tolerate restrictive policy. Progressive lawmakers may also focus on disclosures showing personal assets of USD 135-226mln, including potential conflicts of interest, divestment plans, Wall Street ties and the Epstein link; ahead of the hearing, Warsh has pledged to divest his interest in the iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index fund if confirmed as Fed chair, after ethics officials said his duties would affect the fund’s underlying holdings. Analysts say Warsh’s previous remarks point to a framework that diverges from the current Fed consensus. He has signalled openness to lower rates alongside balance sheet reduction, arguing that quantitative tightening can still deliver tighter financial conditions. He frames inflation as structurally driven by fiscal excess and an enlarged Fed balance sheet, while also highlighting potential disinflation from productivity gains such as AI. His approach prioritises anchoring inflation expectations, suggesting a willingness to keep policy sufficiently tight even if the tool mix differs. On labour markets, he has placed less emphasis on overheating risks, instead pointing to supply-side improvements that could ease wage pressures. On regulation, he appears to favour a narrower Fed remit, backing independence while resisting a broader role in oversight and financial stability. The hearing is further complicated by politics. Republican Senator Tillis has vowed to oppose confirmation votes until the DoJ probe into Chair Powell is resolved, a material issue given Republicans’ razor-thin committee majority. Powell said at the March FOMC he would serve as chair pro tempore until a successor is confirmed, while the administration has signalled that if no successor is confirmed by 15 May, Powell should not remain in the role. The legal position remains unsettled.
• PREVIEW - US RETAIL SALES (13:30BST/08:30EDT): The consensus expects headline retail sales to rise by 1.4% M/M in March (prev. 0.6%), with the annual rate cooling to 2.4% Y/Y (prev. 3.7%). Bank of Americaʼs March consumer checkpoint report suggests that retail sales should be firm; the bank’s card data shows broad-based consumer spending strength, with total credit and debit card spending per household rose +4.3% Y/Y in March (vs 3.2% Y/Y in its February report), the strongest pace since early 2023, while spending at petrol stations jumped 16.5% M/M amid higher gasoline prices. Under the bonnet, ex-gasoline card spending was up 3.6% Y/Y, suggesting underlying demand across core retail and services categories remained resilient. Analysts say this could point to a solid control-group reading within the retail sales data, and might reduce the risk that strength in the headline is dismissed as purely price-driven. Elsewhere, BofA says the income split of Americans remains important; higher-income households continue to outspend middle- and lower-income cohorts, and while the gap narrowed slightly in March, that was largely because fuel accounts for a bigger share of lower-income budgets. More notably, discretionary spending growth eased for lower-income households but increased for other groups, pointing to an uneven consumer backdrop rather than a uniformly strong one. Finally, BofA says that tax refunds are another near-term support; larger refunds are providing a meaningful boost to discretionary spending and debt paydown, though the benefit is skewed towards higher-income households and may prove temporary against other broader cost pressures.