EUROPEAN OPEN: Anta takes 29% stake in PUM GY for EUR 1.5bln; ROG SW's Genentech reports positive trial results; SAND SS core profits rise; SIE GY downgraded at Kepler

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities are opening mostly firmer. Overnight, APAC shares were mostly higher following a rebound on Wall Street, but some gains were capped ahead of key events and big tech earnings stateside, while participants also digested Trump’s latest tariff salvo against South Korea; Trump said he would raise US tariffs on South Korea to 25% (from 15%), citing delays in implementing last year’s trade deal. Data showed China’s industrial enterprises recorded their first annual profit increase since 2021 as producer deflation eased; profits rose 5.3% Y/Y (prev. -13% in November), while FY profits edged up 0.6%. In energy, US natgas prices fell as traders took profits after prices jumped almost 30% on Monday amid an Arctic blast boosting heating demand. ING said “there are some signs that production is already recovering, with gas output from the Permian estimated to be up 11% day-on-day yesterday,” adding that “if this trend continues, it suggests prices have likely peaked.” Oil prices fell as traders focused on ample supply while monitoring disruption from the winter storms; WTI slid toward USD 60/bbl, and Brent below USD 65/bbl. Kazakhstan plans to resume output at Tengiz, while Chevron (CVX) seeks more Venezuelan crude for a well-supplied market. Gold extended gains as a weaker USD, geopolitical risks and investor moves away from sovereign bonds boosted demand, with the yellow metal around USD 5,100/oz. Bloomberg writes that options traders are positioning for further gains in gold after prices broke above USD 5,000/oz. In data, the BRC said inflation in UK shops rose to the highest level in almost two years as retailers faced higher costs; prices rose 1.5% Y/Y in January (exp. 0.7%, prev. 0.7%), while food inflation increased to 3.9%. Elsewhere, EY research showed large UK companies are seeing profits eroded by UK policy changes and rising geopolitical instability; more than 40% of profit warnings issued by FTSE-listed firms last year cited these factors, the highest proportion in over 25 years of EY’s analysis.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In M&A, France’s Pinault family agreed to sell its entire 29.06% Puma (PUM GY) stake to China’s Anta Sports for EUR 1.5bln; Anta will pay EUR 35/shr, becoming Puma’s largest shareholder, and Anta has no current plans to make a takeover offer for sports apparel maker. The deal follows Puma restructuring, including 900 job cuts by end-2026. Of note for the UK hospitality sector, the government will announce a support package for pubs this week to help offset business rates, after pressure on Chancellor Reeves following last year’s reforms; the measures are expected to apply only to pubs, excluding hotels, restaurants, holiday parks and nightclubs. In autos, European car sales rose for a third consecutive year in 2025 as buyers favoured more affordable electric and hybrid models. New-vehicle registrations increased +2.4% to 13.3mln units, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said, though volumes remained about 15% below pre-pandemic levels. Sinochem’s Cnrc proposed spinning off Pirelli’s (PIRC IM) cyber tire business to address US rules, which prohibit the import of vehicles with ties to China and Russia, but Camfin rejected it as ineffective and harmful, Corriere reports. In materials, Steel Dynamics (STLD) shares were choppy but ended the extended US trading session flat after better than expected earnings, and management expressing optimism for the year ahead. Nucor (NUE) shares fell 2.4% in extended US trading after the company reported Q4 earnings and sales below expectations, driven by weaker steel mills results due to lower volumes and margin compression. In industrials, Sandvik (SAND SS) reported a larger-than-expected Q4 core profit, while non-adjusted EPS came in at 3.35/shr (exp. 3.37), and it proposed a higher dividend; it reported Q4 revenue of SEK 32.5bln (exp. 32bln), and Q4 orders of SEK 32.7bln (exp. 32.4bln). In healthcare, WSJ reports that the Trump administration proposed roughly flat Medicare insurer rates, below Wall Street expectations, with payments rising an estimated 0.09% on average in 2027. Roche (ROG SW) said Genentech’s Phase II CT388-103 trial showed once-weekly CT-388 delivered 22.5% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 48 weeks, with Phase III Enith1 and Enith2 starting this quarter. Getinge (GETIB SS) reported Q4 core earnings below expectations, citing the impact of US import tariffs and unfavourable currency exchange rates. In financials, HSBC (HSBA LN) will close a retail branch at Raffles Place in Singapore and replace it with a wealth centre, deepening its focus on affluent clients, the bank said. In tech, SK Hynix (HXSCL) shares rose after news that it has become the exclusive supplier of fifth-generation HBM3E memory for Microsoft’s (MSFT) Maia 200 AI accelerator used in its data centres. In notable broker updates, Siemens (SIE GY) was downgraded at Kepler; Aker BP (AKERBP NO) was downgraded by Danske Bank; Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) and Sanofi (SAN FP) were initiated with Neutral ratings at Citi.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: The NBH is expected to keep rates at 6.5%, delaying easing until an inflation slowdown is evident. Stateside, the ADP will release its weekly labour market pulse (last week, it reported an average of 8k jobs/week over the rolling four-week period). The FHFA monthly house price index is expected to rise 0.3% M/M; Case-Shiller’s gauge is seen cooling to 1.2% Y/Y from 1.3%. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for January is seen nudging up to 90.9 from 89.1. Elsewhere, new home sales for December, Richmond Fed’s monthly business surveys, and the Dallas Fed’s services readings are out today. After hours, the API will report its weekly energy inventory data. President Trump will return to Iowa today and deliver a speech focussed on energy and the economy. ECB President Lagarde, and policymaker Nagel are due to give remarks today. On the supply slate, UK will sell GBP 3.25bln of 2033 Gilts; Germany will sell EUR 6bln of 2028 Schatz; US Treasury will auction USD 70bln of 5yr notes. Today’s US corporate earnings slate includes UNH, SYF, UPS, GM, KMB, NOC, ROP, RTX, AAL, JBLU, IVZ, HCA, BA, NEE, UNP, PCAR, SYY, TXN, FFIV, STX, PPG, BXP, PKG; European heavyweight LVMH (MC FP) is due to report after the European close.