EUROPEAN OPEN: ASML NA lifts FY26 sales guidance, but Q2 view falls short; KER FP reports flat sales in Q1; RMS Q1 revenue misses amid Iran war drag; CBK GY-UCG IM far apart on valuation; STLAM Q1 shipments rise; Trump interview, cbank speak ahead

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities are mixed after the open, though risk sentiment has improved on optimism around renewed US-Iran talks and several major markets retracing war-driven losses. President Trump told Fox that he sees the Iran war as “very close to being over” and said talks could resume “over the next two days”; the full interview is due to air at 11:00BST/06:00EDT. Overnight, China’s CSI 300 rose and fully reversed losses tied to the conflict, joining Singapore and Taiwan among the first regional markets back in positive territory since the war began at the end of February. On Wall Street, benchmarks have also recovered those losses, with the S&P 500 nearing its late-January record high and the Nasdaq posting its longest winning streak since 2021, helped by softer oil, solid US bank earnings and constructive CEO commentary on the economy. In crude, prices swung as traders weighed prospects for a second round of US-Iran talks against the near-total double blockade of flows through the Strait of Hormuz; Brent was little changed around USD 95/bbl after Tuesday’s near-5.0% slide, while WTI traded near USD 91/bbl. Bloomberg reports the Trump administration will allow a waiver covering certain Iranian crude stranded at sea to expire this weekend, with the US Treasury saying it will not renew the short-term authorisation and will use other measures to keep pressure on Iran. Gold eased into the European session near USD 4,815/oz, with some desks viewing the move as technical, while lower oil and easing inflation worries reduced haven demand; separately, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth raised gold allocations as part of a broader defensive tilt against Iran war risks. In base metals, London copper has now erased all losses triggered by the conflict, moving above its 27th February close as traders focused on possible peace talks. In rates, Bloomberg says bond traders are positioning for a Treasury rally on hopes of a Middle East peace deal and lower oil, with some options targeting the US 10-year yield at 4.18% within three weeks, while another trade looks for 4.1%. On the data front, final French March inflation was revised up to 1.0% M/M (exp. 0.9%; prev. 0.6%).
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, ASML (ASML NA) raised its FY26 net sales guidance to EUR 36-40bln (from 34-39bln) after Q1 revenue and profit beat expectations, with strong AI-driven demand, robust orders, and it proposed a higher FY25 dividend; exec said order intake remains very strong as customers accelerate 2026 and beyond capacity expansion on AI infrastructure demand, with chip demand outpacing supply and capacity increases continuing into 2027. In consumer sectors, Kering (KER FP) said Gucci Q1 sales fell 8% to EUR 1.35bln, marking an 11th straight quarterly decline, while the Iran war cut Kering sales by 1% overall; Q1 2026 comp revenue was flat despite Middle East disruptions; jewellery and eyewear grew; all brands except McQueen are targeted to grow in 2026. Hermes (RMS FP) Q1 revenue -1% at EUR 4.07bln (exp. 4.15bln) as the Iran war weighed on Middle East and tourist-driven sales; FX-adjusted sales grew +6% (exp. 7.1%); Middle East sales -6% to EUR 160mln (prev. EUR 185mln); UAE luxury mall sales were -40% in March; Asia ex-Japan saw growth, while Greater China continued its slight growth. Stellantis (STLAM IM) Q1 global shipments +12% Y/Y to around 1.4mln vehicles; North America +17%, Enlarged Europe +12%; shipments in GCC countries fell more than 50%. Barratt Redrow (BTRW LN) cut its annual land approval target to 7,000-9,000 plots (from 10,000-12,000), and reduced its land spending estimate to GBP 700-800mln, citing cost pressures and interest rate uncertainty linked to the Iran war; the homebuilder reaffirmed its FY profit and home completion forecasts, but warned of limited visibility beyond the current fiscal year. In financials, Pimco (ALV GY) bought the full USD 400mln bond sale issued on Monday by a Blue Owl (OWL) private credit fund; the purchase comes during a sell-off that has pushed spreads on similar fund notes to multiyear highs amid concerns over lending standards and software-sector exposure to AI disruption. Commerzbank (CBK GY) CEO said she has held talks with UniCredit (UCG IM) after the Italian bank announced a takeover bid, but the two sides remain far apart on valuation; she said they also disagree on the exchange ratio and on aspects of the potential future business model. UBS (UBSG SW) Sergio Ermotti could remain CEO well into H2 2027 to steer bank through regulatory overhaul, according to Reuters. Aegon (AGN NA) will sell Aegon UK to Standard Life for a total consideration of GBP 2bln. In materials, Antofagasta (ANTO LN) reported Q1 copper production -7.3% Y/Y at 143k tonnes, and sales -19.5% Y/Y at 137k tonnes, while gold production +8.4% Y/Y at 46.5k ounces, as a result of higher gold grades, which were partially offset by lower ore processing rates at both concentrators; FY guidance was unchanged. In industrials, Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GY) pilots’ union Vereinigung Cockpit has called two more strike days this week, planning a 48hr stoppage from Thursday to Friday; the union also proposed binding mediation through an independent third party to help resolve the labour dispute and avoid further escalation. Anglo American (AAL LN) was upgraded at Oddo; Antofagasta (ANTO LN) was initiated with a Neutral at Oddo; Entain (ENT LN) was upgraded at Peel Hunt; Imperial Brands (IMB LN) was downgraded at UBS; Ageas (AGS BB) was downgraded at ING; BBVA (BBVA SM) was downgraded at Barclays; CaixaBank (CABK SM) was upgraded at Barclays; Givaudan (GIVN SW) was upgraded at JPMorgan; Equinor (EQNR NO) was downgraded at Danske Bank; Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) was downgraded at Deutsche Bank.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: The interview US President Trump gave to Fox News will air today at 06:00EDT/11:00BST. Japan PM Takaichi is expected to on Wednesday announce plans to provide up to USD 10bln in financial support to Southeast Asian nations to help manage soaring crude oil prices linked to the Middle East war during a virtual meeting with regional leaders. In Europe, Eurozone industrial production are scheduled. Stateside, MBA mortgage applications, import/export prices, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, the NAHB Housing Market Index, the Fed’s Beige Book, TIC/foreign bond investment data are due. On the speaker slate, Fed’s Barr (voter; no text expected) is due to speak on consumer compliance supervision and regulation; Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove; no text expected) will speak at the IIF; Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter; no text expected) will give an interview to CNBC; ECB President Lagarde will give a keynote address at a conference (no text expected), ECB’s Schnabel will participate in a panel discussion on mid-term challenges for central banks (text expected), and ECB’s Cipollone are also scheduled; BoE Governor Bailey appears on panels at the IIF; SNB’s Schlegel. In energy, API data reportedly showed headline crude posting a surprise build of +6.1mln bbls (exp -1.3mln), though stocks at Cushing drew down by -1.7mln bbls; distillate stocks saw a larger than expected draw of -3.4mln bbls (exp. -2.5mln), while gasoline inventories posted a surprised build of +0.6mln bbls (exp. -2.2mln). The more widely followed DoE figures will be published later today. In supply, Germany will sell EUR 2.0bln across 2052 and 2056 lines. Notable corporate earnings due today include: ASML Holding (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Progressive (PGR), PNC Financial (PNC), M&T Bank (MTB), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), First Horizon (FHN).