EUROPEAN OPEN: ASML NA orders surge, raises guidance; LOGN SW profit beat, guidance in line; TXN shares rise on strong outlook; MC FP lower after earnings update; VOLVB SS tops expectations; FOMC and key earnings ahead

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities have started mixed, but the euro Stoxx 50 is gaining, supported by an earnings update from ASML (ASML NA), which reported strong orders and raised guidance. The USD on Tuesday slid to a four-year low after President Trump said he was not concerned about its recent decline, calling its performance 'great'; the President's remarks accelerated USD selling vs peers amid trader unease. EURUSD rose to above 1.20 for the first time since June 2021. Emerging Asia FX rose to its highest since July, as USD debasement fears intensified, with President Trump criticising some regional currencies; the MSCI EM currency index hit a record, after the Greenback slid on Trump’s comments. Japanese bonds rose after a 40yr auction attracted the strongest demand since March, easing immediate concerns over long-term debt ahead of snap elections. The BoJ's latest meeting minutes said that some officials raised concerns in December about how JPY depreciation is influencing price trends, stating that policy decisions should consider its impact on inflation (the central bank lifted rates in December to the highest since 1995). Japan's FinMin Katayama said the government will coordinate with the US on currency responses when necessary, again citing a joint statement from September. Australia’s trimmed mean CPI rose +0.9% (exp. 0.8%) in Q4, lifting annual core inflation to 3.4% (exp. 3.3%, prev. 3.0%), and headline inflation to 3.8% (exp. 3.6%, prev. 3.4%); the data prompted banks like ANZ, Westpac, CBA and NAB to back a February rate hike from the RBA, with markets pricing a 70%+ probability of this outcome. Aluminium reached its highest level in almost four years, with other base metals also advancing, after President Trump downplayed concern about USD weakness. Gold climbed to a fresh record high above USD 5,200/oz, extending its recent rally, underpinned by a softer USD and moves away from sovereign bonds and FX. Overnight, US natgas prices fell in thin trading after its recent record rally driven by cold weather conditions. February contracts dropped as much as 7.6%, while March contracts declined up to 2%. Oil extended gains as traders watched renewed threats by Trump against Iran, and amid a weaker USD; Brent traded around USD 68/bbl before paring to around 66.50, while WTI was above USD 62/bbl.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, China has reportedly approved its first batch of Nvidia (NVDA) H200 AI chips for import, covering several hundred thousand units, Reuters reports; it was later reported that the figure could be over 400k. Texas Instruments (TXN) shares rose +7.8% in extended US trading after it issued a stronger than expected Q1 outlook, signalling a recovery in demand for industrial equipment and vehicles. ASML (ASML NA) Q4 orders reached a record EUR 13.2bln (exp. 6.85bln), driven by strong demand for advanced chip-making equipment as rapid AI infrastructure development boosted investment in its most sophisticated machines. Q4 revenue EUR 9.72bln (exp. 9.26bln; guided 9.2-9.8bln), gross profit EUR 5.07bln (exp. 4.98bln). Announced a share buyback of up to EUR 12bln, and intends to declare a total dividend for 2025 of EUR 7.50/shr (+17% Y/Y). Execs said 2026 should be another growth year, driven by a significant increase in EUV sales, and growth in installed-base services, noting customers’ more positive medium-term outlook has been underpinned by AI-related demand. Sees Q1 revenue between EUR 8.2-8.9bln (exp. 8.11bln), Q1 gross margin between 51-53%. For FY26, sees total net sales between EUR 34-39bln (exp. 36.5bln), with gross margin between 51-53% (exp. 52.9%). Logitech (LOGN SW) reported Q3 adj. EPS 1.93 (exp. 1.81), Q3 revenue USD 1.42bln (exp. 1.41bln), with broad-based growth across categories, regions and both consumer and business channels, and record operating income outside pandemic peaks despite tariff headwinds. Sees Q4 revenue between USD 1.07-1.09bln (exp. 1.08bln), and operating income between USD 155-165mln; for FY26, sees revenue between USD 4.825-4.845bln (exp. 4.81bln), and operating income between USD 900-910mln. In consumer sectors, LVMH (MC FP) reported better than expected Q4 revenue of EUR 22.7bln (exp. 22.2bln), with FY revenue -1% Y/Y at EUR 80.8bln; organic growth returned in H2 of 2025, driven by improving trends in Asia ex-Japan, signalling stabilisation in China. However, fashion and leather goods remained weak, with FY organic sales -5%. CEO warned that 2026 would be challenging amid an uncertain economic environment, while analysts expect a gradual but uneven sector recovery. In materials, Wacker Chemie (WCH GY) reported preliminary FY25 EBITDA -42% Y/Y to EUR 430mln, or about EUR 530mln ex-special effects; EBIT was around EUR -180mln, the net result is seen as a EUR 800mln loss, and sales fell 4% to about EUR 5.49bln due to weak demand, lower utilisation, pricing, and currency effects. In industrials, Volvo (VOLVB SS) Q4 EPS 4.73 (exp. 4.34), Q4 revenue SEK 123.8bln (exp. 121.7bln), Q4 operating income SEK 12.8bln (exp. 11.7bln), supported by resilient truck demand and pricing, with management noting a slight improvement in some markets; board proposed an ordinary dividend of SEK 8.50/shr, plus an extra dividend of SEK 4.50/shr. Volvo also raised its FY26 North America truck order guidance to 265k units (prev. saw 250k), signalling improved demand visibility in the region. In materials, Fresnillo (FRES LN) reported 2025 attributable gold output of 600.3koz, beating guidance, while silver production fell 13.5% to 48.7moz, but met targets. Fresnillo cut its 2026 gold and silver guidance due to mine-plan changes and delays, though it expects production to recover from 2027. In notable broker updates, Boliden (BOL SS) was downgraded at Kepler; BBVA (BBVA SM) was downgraded at RBC; Neste (NESTE FH) was downgraded at UBS; SocGen (GLE FP) was downgraded at Keefe Bruyette; PSP Swiss Property (PSPN SW) and Swiss Prime (SPSN SW) were upgraded at UBS.

TODAY'S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: The main events today are the FOMC rate decision (preview below; analysts expect unchanged rates, but with potential dissent), and key US earnings reports, including from SBUX, DHR, GEV, T, ADP, APH, PGR, MSFT, META, TSLA, LRCX, IBM, NOW. The BoC is also expected to keep rates on hold today, at 2.25% (preview below). In data releases, MBA mortgage applications data for the week are due. In energy, weekly API inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise draw of -0.2mln bbls (exp. +1.8mln), Cushing -0.0mln bbls, distillates posted a surprise build of +2.0mln bbls (exp. -0.6mln), while gasoline stocks posted a surprise draw of -0.4mln bbls (exp. +1.0mln). The more widely followed DoE inventory report will be published later today. Speakers today include: Fed Chair Powell (post-meeting remarks), BoC Governor Macklem (post-meeting remarks), ECB's Elderson and Schnabel. In supply, Germany will sell EUR 6bln of 2036 Bunds; US will sell USD 30bln of 2yr FRNs.
• PREVIEW - FOMC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (19:00GMT/14:00EST) - The FOMC policy announcement is due at 19:00GMT/14:00EST, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 19:30GMT/14:30EST. The Committee is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%; around 58% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect rates to remain on hold through the quarter. Despite the anticipated hold, some dissent is expected, and traders may be more attentive to any forward guidance on policy. Money markets are pricing around 45bps of cuts by year-end, with the first 25bps reduction seen by July. Goldman Sachs expects an uneventful meeting, with no change to the policy rate, only minor statement adjustments, and limited insight into the future policy path. Chair Powell is likely to reiterate that the FOMC has already delivered three cuts to support labour market stability and is well positioned to assess incoming data. As in recent meetings, guidance is expected to be more important than the decision itself, particularly regarding how long policymakers intend to remain patient before easing comes into view. Analysts at Wrightson said that political pressures will loom over the press conference.
• Click here for Newsquawk's FOMC preview
• PREVIEW - BOC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (14:45GMT/09:45EST) - The BoC rate decision, Monetary Policy Report are due at 14:45GMT09:45EST, followed by a press conference with Governor Macklem at 15:30GMT/10:30EST. The central bank is unanimously expected to keep rates on hold at 2.25%, according to Bloomberg-surveyed analysts, as well as current OIS pricing. A Reuters poll shows around 75% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged in 2026, up from about 60% in the comparable December poll. Expectations for renewed tightening have been pared back amid worsening US-Canada trade relations, heightened uncertainty ahead of USMCA renegotiations later this year, and a rise in the unemployment rate in December. Money markets now price roughly 12bps of hikes by year-end, down from around 35bps. Recent data have been mixed, with unemployment rising despite full time job gains, headline inflation accelerating, and average core measures easing slightly. The meeting includes an updated MPR, with attention on the neutral rate estimate (currently seen at 2.25-3.25%), though no change is expected.
• Click here for Newsquawk's BoC preview