EUROPEAN OPEN: CFR SW FY sales beat on Cartier demand; BAER SW expects substantially higher H1 profit; Bharti mulls raising BT/ LN stake; PUIG SM & EL end merger talks; SHEL LN faces Dutch Supreme Court proceedings on CO2

EUROPEAN OPEN:

European equities opened higher, with Stoxx 600 and Euro Stoxx 50 futures on track for weekly gains, helping offset last week’s downside. Asian stocks rose for a second day overnight, led by Japan’s Nikkei as investors rotated into AI-linked names; SoftBank surged, while Lenovo hit a 26-year high in Hong Kong after results.
Middle East headlines remained mixed. Reports of a final draft Pakistani-mediated US-Iran agreement were later described as fabricated. A senior Iranian source said no deal had been reached, though gaps had narrowed, with uranium enrichment and control over the Strait of Hormuz still key sticking points.
Oil rose, with Brent around USD 105.50/bbl, as Middle East tensions continued to threaten supply disruption, though the benchmark remains down around 4% this week. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent forecast at USD 100/bbl, saying risks are skewed higher and inventories are on track to test the lowest levels since 2020, even under its most optimistic case.
Gold edged lower overnight, entering the European session around USD 4,510/oz, as mixed signals on US-Iran ceasefire prospects kept traders uncertain over the interest rate outlook. Iranian media reported the latest US proposal had narrowed gaps and Secretary of State Rubio cited “good signs”, though optimism faded after Iran’s Supreme Leader reportedly prohibited the export of near-weapons-grade uranium.
Copper and other base metals rose as optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement supported risk assets, though unresolved sticking points remain.
Yen traders are watching for potential Japanese government intervention on Monday, with London and New York public holidays set to thin liquidity. USDJPY is hovering around 159, near its weakest since April, when authorities bought as much as JPY 10tln during Golden Week.
Elsewhere, Japan FinMin Katayama suggested Japan’s extra budget will likely be around JPY 3tln, adding that cancelled bond sales from last year’s budget could limit fresh debt issuance.
DATA: In data, Japan’s core CPI rose 1.4% Y/Y (exp. 1.7%), the slowest pace in four years, which analysts said complicates the case for a near-term BoJ rate rise; ex-energy, CPI climbed 1.9% (exp. 2.2%). German GfK Consumer Confidence rose to -29.8 (exp. -34, prev. -33.3); Gfk said consumer confidence has ended its downward trend for now, citing improved income expectations, softer saving behaviour and a slight recovery in consumption sentiment, while warning that the Middle East conflict’s negative impact remains largely unchanged and continues to limit a stronger recovery. GfK’s UK consumer confidence index rose points to -23 in May (exp. -28), though analysts said the headline improvement masked sharp divergences across income groups; lower-earning households saw the biggest deterioration in confidence, while only those earning GBP 50K or more reported an uptick. Savings intentions fell 10 points, the largest monthly drop since September 2024, suggesting consumers are drawing on savings to cover day-to-day expenses. UK retail sales fell by -1.3% M/M (exp. -0.6%, prev. 0.7%), with the ex-fuel measure -0.4% M/M (exp. -0.3%, prev. 0.2%); the annual rate fell to 0.0% Y/Y (exp. 1.3%, prev. 1.7%). Analysts at Pantheon Macro say recent weakness reflects tighter consumer spending amid higher motor fuel prices and Iran War uncertainty, though the headline fall was exaggerated by lower fuel sales after March panic buying; it expects weaker sales growth to persist, and Q2 GDP growth to slow sharply.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

HEALTHCARE: AstraZeneca (AZN LN) will showcase Phase III data in liver, breast and bladder cancers at ASCO 2026, including Imfinzi and Imjudo in early liver cancer. Bayer (BAYN GY) Kerendia received Chinese NMPA approval for a label update extending its indication to adults with heart failure and LVEF above 40%. Recordati (REC IM) received a voluntary cash tender offer from CVC Fund IX and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert at EUR 51.29/shr, seeking delisting from Euronext Milan (Recordati last closed at EUR 51.70/shr). Sandoz (SDZ SW) urged the EU Commission to investigate alleged dumping by China of key ingredients. Biogen (BIIB) and Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) will discontinue BIIB122 development in idiopathic Parkinson’s after the Phase 2b LUMA study missed primary and secondary endpoints. AbbVie’s (ABBV) Allergan received a positive CHMP opinion for Boey in moderate to severe eyebrow lines, with a European Commission decision expected in the coming months.
TECH: ASML (ASML NA) CEO Fouquet said the EU risks pushing AI companies out of the region. AMD (AMD) CEO said stronger-than-expected demand is tightening CPU supply, with China about 20% of revenue and AI driving growth. Workday (WDAY) rose 11% in extended US trading after stronger than expected results, as well as an upgraded margin forecast, with management citing strength in AI and rising use of its AI agents. Lenovo Group (LNVGY) shares rose overnight after FY profit grew +38% and revenue +20%, with AI revenue at 38% of Q4 sales, and said that Nvidia (NVDA) Rubin-based platforms are due in H2.
COMMUNICATIONS: Bharti Enterprises is reportedly considering increasing its BT (BT/ LN) stake to just under 30% (from 24.95%), without planning a full takeover. Take-Two (TTWO) shares rose 7% in extended US trading after a Q4 beat, despite weaker guidance for the next quarter and upcoming financial year, as it reiterated a 19th November release date for its key GTA6 game. Nintendo (NTDOY) asked suppliers to assemble about 20mln Switch 2 consoles through March, around 20% above its 16.5mln FY sales forecast.
CONSUMER: Richemont (CFR SW) FY sales rose 11% (exp. 9.8%) on resilient Cartier jewellery demand, and all regions contributing to growth; it also announced a share buyback of up to 10mln shares; ahead, said uncertainty is likely to persist. Puig Brands (PUIG SM) and Estee Lauder (EL) have ended talks over a proposed multibillion-dollar combination, with reports noting tensions over Charlotte Tilbury’s compensation demands. Renault (RNO FP) priced JPY 159bln of Samurai bonds, its second-largest such offering, including JPY 100bln for retail investors.
FINANCIALS: UBS (UBSG SW) accused the Credit Suisse Nazi-linked accounts probe ombudsman of bias, as it withholds over 27,000 privileged pages, which it says are legally privileged; UBS notes it has already given more than 48mln documents to the probe. Julius Baer (BAER SW) expects H1 profit to be substantially higher Y/Y, as exceptionally high activity offset client inflows slowing. UK banks are set to save over GBP 1bln from financial services red-tape cuts, including up to GBP 18.7mln from compensation rule changes, Politico reports.
INDUSTRIALS: Smiths Group (SMIN LN) cut FY26 organic revenue growth guidance to around 2% (from 3-4%), citing USD 10mln Q4 Middle East disruption at John Crane. Of note for airlines, US HHS threatened to curtail customs processing at sanctuary-city airports, including JFK, Newark Liberty and Washington Dulles, despite industry and Transport Secretary Duffy opposition. SpaceX (SPCX) postponed a Starship launch due to a malfunctioning hydraulic pin on the launch tower, with another attempt planned for 22nd May.
ENERGY: Shell (SHEL LN) faces Dutch Supreme Court proceedings by Milieudefensie seeking 45% CO2 cuts below 2019 levels by 2030, with decisions expected in 2026 and 2027. ExxonMobil (XOM) is in talks to acquire rights to produce oil in up to six Venezuelan fields, nearly two decades after leaving the country; a deal could be finalised and announced this month.
MATERIALS: BASF (BAS GY) said Weidmuller is using its Ultramid Advanced N3U41 G6 polyphthalamide in OMNIMATE 4.0 PCB connectors and terminals.
NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Sandvik (SAND SS) downgraded at Nordea; Evonik (EVK GY) was downgraded at JPMorgan; Arkema (AKE FP) downgraded at JPMorgan; Clariant (CLN SW) upgraded at JPMorgan; Lanxess (LXS GY) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs; Generali (G IM) upgraded at Oddo Securities.

DAY AHEAD:

EVENTS: Kevin Warsh is due to be sworn in as Fed Chair. In UK politics, Manchester Mayor Burnham will deliver remarks at 10:45BST. Pakistani Interior Minister meets Iran’s Foreign Minister again to study proposals to resolve US-Iran disputes.
DATA: Final US Michigan consumer sentiment is seen at 48.2 (prev. 49.8), current conditions at 47.8 (prev. 52.5), and expectations at 48.5 (prev. 48.1), the 1yr inflation expectation is expected to print 4.5% (prev. 4.7%) and 5-year inflation at 3.4% (prev. 3.5%); the Conference Board’s leading index is also due (prev. -0.6% M/M). Canada reports March retail sales (exp. 0.6% M/M, prev. 0.7%) and April PPI (exp. 1.3% M/M, prev. 2.4%).
CENTRAL BANKS: The BoC senior loan officer survey is released.
SPEAKERS: Fed’s Waller (voter, dove) speaks on the economic outlook. ECB’s Lane (dovish) delivers opening address at AMPF in Singapore (text expected). Riksbank’s Hjelm speaks on monetary policy.
CRA: Moody’s reviews UK (Aa3) and Portugal (A3); Scope Ratings reviews China (A); Moody’s reviews Hungary (Baa2); S&P reviews Norway (AAA).
EXPIRIES: Bund, Bobl and Schatz June options expire. US Treasury June 2026 options expire.
ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig counts (prev. oil 410, gas 129, total 548).