EUROPEAN OPEN: EZJ LN & ITH LN indicated to join FTSE100; AKRBP NO starts Skarv Satellites production early; ENR GY plans standalone industrial unit with minority stake; BAMI IM reviews BMPS IM offer; SWON SW revenue rises

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities have opened in the green. Overnight, APAC stocks were up, following the gains on Wall Street, where sentiment was underpinned amid Strait of Hormuz optimism, lower oil prices and a drop in yields. Asian semis advanced ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, due after the US close today; Samsung and SK Hynix both rose amid reports that they plan to increase 8-stack HBM4 shipments to Nvidia in H2.
• Data released out of Australia showed inflation rising 3.5% Y/Y in July (exp. 3.3%), adding pressure on the RBA to raise rates again, following three hikes in the first-half of the year; Governor Bullock has previously said that further hikes are “quite possible.”
• Crude futures have eased; November Brent fell below 86/bbl, and October WTI is below USD 81/bbl, as Iran and Oman discussed a temporary maritime corridor to resume Strait of Hormuz shipping. Oman said talks will continue toward a permanent route. Elsewhere, API data reportedly showed US crude inventories posting a surprise build in the week.
• Gold slipped to USD 4,640/oz after a five-day rally, with investors focused on the Fed’s rate path and Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech later this week. Bullion is still up around 7% in the last week.
• In the European premarket, ECB’s Schnabel said rates must rise further to address inflation risks and prevent second-round effects, adding that any tightening will depend on incoming data. She said markets understand the ECB’s reaction function. She sees economic momentum strengthening in Europe, though thinks inflation is likely to remain above 2% for an extended period, noting that the natgas situation was particularly concerning.
• In addition to earnings from Nvidia, the US data slate is packed today, and features July PCE inflation data (see below for preview) and a second look at Q2 GDP; afterhours, the Kansas City Fed will outline the schedule for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (27-29th August), where Fed Chair Warsh will deliver remarks on Friday.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• INDEX: Indicative FTSE 100 quarterly review changes show easyJet (EZJ LN) and Ithaca Energy (ITH LN) are set to join, with Entain (ENT LN) and Persimmon (PSN LN) to be removed; in the FTSE 250, Entain (ENT LN), Persimmon (PSN LN), Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN), Seraphim Space Investment (SSIT LN) and Volex (VLX LN) are set to join, while Aston Martin (AML LN), easyJet (EZJ LN), GB Group (GBG LN) and Ithaca Energy (ITH LN) are to be removed. Confirmed changes will be announced after market close on 2nd September.
• TECH: SoftwareOne (SWON SW) H1 2026 revenue +68.2% Y/Y to CHF 818.3mln (exp. 813.1mln), EBITDA +5.2% to CHF 185.4mln (exp. 190mln); it achieved CHF 100mln of run-rate cost synergies, the top of its target range, and identified a further CHF 5-10mln of synergies expected in H2 2026. Intuit (INTU) shares dropped over 10% in extended US trading after its outlook disappointed, overshadowing a strong quarterly earnings and revenue beat.
• COMMUNICATIONS: Meta Platforms (META) and state attorney generals have discussed a potential mid-trial settlement of the teen social media harm lawsuit, with several state attorneys general subsequently issuing advisories announcing press conferences.
• INDUSTRIALS: Siemens Energy (ENR GY) plans to separate its Transformation of Industry division as a standalone entity while retaining a meaningful minority stake; CVC, EQT, Bain, Brookfield and KKR are considering majority-stake bids on a potential transaction valued EUR 10bln+.
• CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Of note for UK homebuilders, the FT reports that PM Burnham is mulling giving mayors in England powers to suspend the “right to buy” policy and block sales of council homes.
• CONSUMER STAPLES: Sainsbury’s (SBRY LN) will create 10K work experience and employability opportunities for young people under a UK Government plan.
• FINANCIALS: Banco BPM (BAMI IM) said its board acknowledged receipt of an unsolicited offer from BMPS (BMPS IM) and will evaluate it; Banco BPM added that the proposal constitutes an acquisition, rather than a merger. BNP Paribas (BNP FP) and KB Financial’s KB Kookmin are reportedly in talks over a USD 2bln stake in Vietnam’s Techcombank.
• ENERGY: UK Energy Secretary is expected to maintain the government’s existing position on whether to permit new North Sea drilling, Politico reports. Aker BP (AKRBP NO) started production from the Skarv Satellites one year ahead of the original schedule; the developments contain about 120mln bbls of oil equivalent, and are expected to increase flexibility and extend the life of infrastructure around Skarv.
• UTILITIES: UK PM Burnham is reportedly scrapping insolvency laws to make it easier to bring key utilities, including Thames Water, under public control, The Guardian reports.
• HEALTHCARE: Two suitors for Qiagen (QIA GY) have reportedly begun due diligence as the company’s sale process advances as part of its molecular diagnostics strategic review, CTFN reports.
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: E.ON (EOAN GY) upgraded at Berenberg; Aeroports de Paris (ADP FP) upgraded at Deutsche Bank. SAP (SAP GY) downgraded at UBS; Ferrovial (FER SM) downgraded at UBS; H&M (HMB SS) downgraded at Handelsbanken

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: US Secretary of State Rubio will meet Mexico’s Finance Minister at 09:30EDT/14:30BST.
• DATA: In Europe, UK CBI distributive trades (prev. -26). In North America, a second estimate of US Q2 GDP (exp. 1.5% Q/Q, prev. 2.1%). July PCE is expected to rise by +0.1% M/M in July (prev. -0.1%), with the annual rate expected to tick down to 3.6% Y/Y (prev. 3.7%); the core measure is seen rising by +0.2% M/M (prev. 0.1%), with the annual rate of core PCE seen unchanged at 3.3% Y/Y (See below for preview). US durable goods orders are also released today. After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its Q3 GDPNow tracking estimate (prev. 4.00%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Riksbank’s Hjelm speaks on the economic situation and the most recent rate decision; ECB’s Cipollone delivers remarks on the future of payments in Germany and Europe (text released).
• OPTION EXPIRIES: Gold, Silver and Copper September 2026 options.
• SUPPLY: US sells USD 70bln of 5-year notes and USD 28bln of 2-year FRNs. Germany auctions EUR 2bln of 2041 and 2048 debt. Italy sells between EUR 2.5-3bln of 2028 notes.
• ENERGY: EIA releases weekly energy inventories; afterhours on Tuesday, the API weekly inventory report showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise build of +4.2mln bbls (prev. -0.3mln), Cushing stocks building by +1.0mln bbls (prev. -1.4mln), gasoline seeing a surprise draw of -3.2mln bbls (prev. +1.1mln), and distillates posting a smaller than expected draw of -0.5mln bbls (prev. -2.8mln).
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates due to publish earnings reports today include: Nvidia (NVDA), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Agilent Technologies (A), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), HP Inc. (HPQ), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Kohl’s (KSS).
• PREVIEW - US PCE (13:30BST/08:30EDT): The consensus expects headline PCE prices to rise by +0.1% M/M in July (prev. -0.1%), with the annual rate expected to tick down to 3.6% Y/Y (prev. 3.7%); the core measure is seen rising by +0.2% M/M (prev. 0.1%), with the annual rate of core PCE seen unchanged at 3.3% Y/Y. In July, headline CPI rose by +0.1% M/M (prev. -0.4%), with the annual rate slipping to 3.4% Y/Y (prev. 3.5%); the core CPI metric printed +0.2% M/M (prev. 0.0%), with the annual core rate down one-tenth to 2.5% Y/Y. Meanwhile, headline PPI was unchanged in July (prev. -0.3%), with the annual rate dropping to 4.7% Y/Y from 5.5%; the core PPI measure rose +0.2% M/M, missing expectations for +0.3%, while the annual rate fell to 4.2% Y/Y from 4.7%. Writing after the CPI and PPI reports, WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos said that most forecasters were looking for a July core PCE reading of 0.22% M/M, and 3.3% Y/Y, adding that this would imply ‘no wedge’ with the July core CPI (also +0.22%); he noted that portfolio management fees are making a meaningful contribution to the core PCE measure in July. The data will be key in helping to shape expectations for the September FOMC meeting, where pricing for a rate hike has diminished following downside surprises in the latest jobs data, cooling inflation metrics, weak retail sales and a GDP miss. At the time of writing, markets are pricing a 65% probability of a hold vs 50/50 before the July data releases. However, traders may keep some powder dry ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s appearance at Jackson Hole towards the end of the week.