EUROPEAN OPEN: FDX consortium to buy INPST NA for EUR 7.8bln; NWG LN to buy Evelyn Partners for GBP 2.7bln; UCG IM sees mixed Q4; Angola seeks 20-30% stake in AAL LN's De Beers; HIMS to stop selling NOVOB DC copycat drug

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities are starting the week with gains. Overnight, Japanese stocks hit a record as markets opened on Monday after PM Takaichi’s LDP party won 316 of 465 seats, its first two-thirds lower house majority since 1947, BBC reports. With coalition partner Japan Innovation Party, the bloc secured 352 seats. Japanese stocks recorded their biggest gain since April on boosted expectations of increased government spending; the Nikkei 225 rose to above 57k; tech and machinery shares led gains. JPY strengthened after the LDP won an outright majority in Sunday’s lower house election, easing intervention concerns; the country’s top FX official said authorities were closely monitoring FX markets. Bitcoin steadied above USD 70k in APAC trading after volatile moves last week, which saw it slump to USD 60k last Thursday, before rebounding to above USD 70k on Friday. Gold rose above USD 5,000/oz as dip-buyers returned following heightened volatility; the yellow metal has recovered around half of the losses since its drop from a record high on 29th January after a sharp selloff late last month. Silver also advanced. Treasury Secretary Bessent told Fox that Chinese trading activity contributed to last week’s volatility in gold prices, stating that market conditions in China had become “unruly,” prompting tighter margin requirements, and described recent moves in gold as resembling a speculative blowoff. The PBoC extended its gold buying for a fifteenth month in January, lifting holdings to 74.19mln fine troy ounces (vs 74.15mln in December); the value of its reserves rose to USD 369.58bln (from USD 319.45bln). Elsewhere, Chinese copper demand is set to ease as buyers extend Lunar New Year shutdowns amid near-record prices, Bloomberg reports; the holiday starts next Monday and officially ends on 23rd February, with demand seen slowing this week. China’s central bank also boosted liquidity to meet Lunar New Year cash demand, injecting CNY 600bln via 14-day repurchase agreements late last week, ending a two-month pause; Industrial Securities forecasts the central bank could add up to CNY 3.5tln more before the holidays begin on Sunday. Crude prices fell as easing Middle East tensions reduced near-term supply risks; Brent slipped toward USD 67/bbl after losses of around 4% last week, while WTI was near USD 63/bbl. President Trump said the US held “very good talks” with Iran in indirect negotiations and confirmed more discussions are planned, though no date has been set; Iran’s foreign minister said talks focused only on the nuclear programme and reaffirmed Tehran will not halt uranium enrichment, despite new US sanctions and ongoing military pressure. US natgas fell overnight as forecasts for warmer weather pointed to weaker heating and power demand; March futures dropped as much as 6.5%, as government forecasts show above-normal temperatures spreading across central, southern and eastern US later this week. In politics, UK PM Starmer is fighting for his political survival as calls for him to step down grow, after the weekend resignation of his top aide over the Mandelson-Epstein scandal.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In industrials, a consortium led by Advent and FedEx (FDX) agreed to buy Inpost (INPST NA) for EUR 15.60/shr, valuing the parcel locker operator at EUR 7.8bln; Advent and FedEx will each own 37%, with stakes also held by CEO Rafal Brzoska’s A&R and PPF; the deal is expected to close in H2. In materials, Angola is seeking a 20-30% stake in De Beers as Anglo American (AAL LN) moves to sell the diamond unit amid falling prices, a senior official said; Angola had bid for a majority stake in October, but shifted strategy; talks are ongoing. In energy, BP (BP/ LN) received a cautious mention in Bloomberg; Javier Blas writes BP’s share buybacks are a luxury it cannot afford, noting that shareholders are being urged to accept further financial strain in 2026, with a recommendation to cancel the USD 750mln quarterly share buyback and use the funds to reduce debt. Namibia said it will not recognise TotalEnergies (TTE FP) and Petrobras’ (PBR) purchase of offshore stakes in the Luderitz Basin until proper approval procedures are followed; the companies said they each acquired 42.5% of the PEL104 licence, but the government said no formal application was submitted and prior ministerial approval is required. In financials, the European Commission plans to revive efforts to create a common EU bank deposit guarantee scheme covering deposits up to EUR 100,000, seeking new ideas after the 2015 proposal failed, FT reports. The initiative aims to boost bank competitiveness and cross-border mergers, address market fragmentation, and unlock EUR 225bln of capital and EUR 250bln of liquidity. NatWest (NWG LN) announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire Evelyn Partners from funds advised by Permira and Warburg Pincus for an EV of GBP 2.7bln; deal is expected to complete Summer 2026; the bank also announced a share buyback of GBP 750mln. UniCredit (UCG IM) net income topped expectations, while sales slightly missed; it reiterated its capital return strategy, and plans to return around EUR 50bln to investors through dividends/buybacks over the next five years. In consumer sectors, Ocado Group (OCDO LN) is planning to cut up to 1,000 jobs as part of a cost-cutting drive, with most redundancies expected at its UK head office, The Times reports; talks are at an early stage, and the company has not yet finalised the scale or timing of the job reductions. In autos, Automotive Cells Company, backed by Stellantis (STLAM IM), has dropped plans for gigafactories in Italy and Germany, unions said; projects in Termoli and Kaiserslautern were shelved after being on standby since May 2024 due to weak EV demand, Reuters reports, and ACC will focus on its French plant. In healthcare, the US FDA said it intends to restrict GLP-1 active pharmaceutical ingredients used in non-approved compounded drugs mass-marketed as alternatives, citing safety and misleading advertising, with possible seizure or injunction; following the announcement, Hims & Hers (HIMS) said it will stop selling a copycat of Novo Nordisk’s (NOVOB DC) Wegovy just two days after its launch. Roche’s (ROG SW) Genentech said Phase III FENtrepid data showed fenebrutinib met its primary endpoint of non-inferiority versus Ocrevus in reducing disability progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: The week’s data docket starts off on a quiet note; the BoC’s market participants survey is due. Stateside, the NY Fed’s monthly survey of consumer expectations comes ahead of this week’s CPI data (in December, median inflation expectations for the 1yr ahead window increased +0.2ppts to 3.4%, while the 3yr and 5yr gauges were unchanged at 3.0%). Today’s speakers’ schedule includes ECB President Lagarde and chief economist Lane, Fed’s Waller (voter, dove), and Fed’s Bostic (2027 voter, retiring, hawk). Notable US corporates reporting today include: APO, BDX, ON, CLF.
• WEEK AHEAD: This week’s data highlights include US NFP and CPI, UK GDP and China inflation. Notable US corporates reporting this week include: AstraZeneca (AZN), Coca-Cola (KO), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), McDonald’s (MCD), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Gilead (GILD), Arista Networks (ANET), Shopify (SHOP), S&P Global (SPGI), Welltower (WELL), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), CVS Health (CVS).
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