EUROPEAN OPEN: FLUT LN to delist from LSE in Aug; AM FP seeks AIR FP compensation over Eurodrone; IFX GY to open EUR 5bln Dresden fab; Orion mulls buying ERA FP stake; ENR GY warns offshore capacity may be downsized; ADBE falls as CFO leaves

EUROPEAN OPEN:

European equities have opened higher on geopolitical optimism. As things stand, the narrow Euro Stoxx 50 is red on the week following last week’s gains, while the broader Stoxx 600 are primed for small gains following last week’s downside. Overnight, stocks rose and oil fell after President Trump said the US was close to an agreement with Iran, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution.
President Trump said he had cancelled further strikes on Iran, claiming a deal had been approved by all parties and could be signed this weekend in Europe; CBS said that an MOU is likely to be signed early next week, enabling further negotiations on a long-term deal, while Axios reported the proposed deal would reopen Hormuz. Trump also rowed back on threats over Kharg Island. However, Iran said no final decision had been reached, accusing the US of shifting positions and making excessive demands, and also denied Trump’s claim it had asked him to stop attacks.
The Dollar Index fell on Thursday, booking its worst single-day performance since early May, after Trump indicated a peace deal was close, and starts the European session around flat. T-Note futures jumped on Thursday, and are also around flat as the European day gets underway.
Oil extended declines; August Brent futures trade beneath 89/bbl as the European day begins. Gold held gains after President Trump said the US could sign a deal to end the war, however, has given up gains, and starts the European day beneath USD 4,200/oz. Copper rebounded, while aluminium and zinc also gained.
Following yesterday’s ECB rate hike, ECB’s Nagel said the central bank is prepared to raise interest rates again at its July meeting if warranted, and that the fallout from the war in the Middle East was too significant to ignore, with high energy costs feeding through to core inflation. Nagel added that the ECB’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach remains appropriate. ECB’s Dolenc said Thursday’s rate hike was necessary to keep prices in check while officials assess the wider implications of conflict in the Middle East, adding that the latest data show it is “pretty obvious” that inflation will be higher and economic growth lower. ECB's Kocher said the war's impact on price trends are increasingly clear; he does not expect inflation to match 2022 or 2023 levels; reiterates that ECB will act decisively to ensure 2% inflation in the mid-term.
SpaceX (SPCX) will begin trading today at around midday Eastern time (see below for more).
DATA: UK GDP fell by -0.1% M/M in April (exp. -0.1%, prev. +0.3%), with the annual rate remaining at 1.2% Y/Y; the three-month average rate was at 0.7% in the month (exp. 0.0%, prev. 0.6%). Analysts said that the April contraction signals a tepid Q2 ahead, as the Iran war’s impact feeds through via higher energy costs and borrowing rates. Hopes for rate cuts have shifted to expectations of hikes, while the stockpiling boost that supported activity in the early weeks of the conflict is fading. Analysts added that the GDP figures reinforcing the case for BoE policymakers who favour weighing weak demand more heavily than inflation when deciding whether to hike. Elsewhere, the slowdown will add political pressure on PM Starmer, who faces a potential leadership challenge. Elsewhere, German final CPI for May was -0.2% M/M (exp. -0.2%, prev. 0.6%), and the annual rate was 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.6%); Final HICP was -0.1% M/M (exp. -0.1%), and the annual rate was 2.7% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.9%). French final CPI for May was 0.1% M/M (exp. 0.1%, prev. 1%), and the annual rate was 2.4% Y/Y (exp. 2.4%, prev. 2.2%); Final HICP was 0.1% M/M (exp. 0.1%, prev. 1.2%), and the annual rate was 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 2.8%, prev. 2.5%). Spanish final CPI for May was 0.1% M/M (exp. 0.1%, prev. 0.4%), and the annual rate was 3.2% Y/Y (exp. 3.2%, prev. 3.2%); Final HICP was 0.1% M/M (exp. 0.1%, prev. 0.7%), and the annual rate was 3.6% Y/Y (exp. 3.6%, prev. 3.5%).

STOCK SPECIFICS:

INDUSTRIALS: SpaceX (SPCX) will begin trading today at around midday Eastern time, according to the WSJ. Other newswire reports, citing shadow markets, indicate shares could open more than 35% above their IPO price. Reports on Thursday suggested that SpaceX raised USD 75bln at USD 135/shr, with 555.6mln shares sold; the total could reach USD 86bln at a USD 1.78tln valuation if underwriters exercise the greenshoe option. Individual investors placed orders exceeding USD 100bln, and will receive 20-25% of shares sold. DHL (DHL GY) CEO expects revenue from moving giant wind turbine components to grow to EUR 3bln by 2030 (vs EUR 600mln last year). Dassault Aviation (AM FP) is reportedly seeking compensation from Airbus (AIR FP) over procurement changes to the delayed Eurodrone programme.
MATERIALS: Orion Critical Mineral Consortium is reportedly considering buying some or all of the Duval family’s 37% stake in Eramet (ERA FP).
ENERGY: Shell (SHEL LN) and Venezuela signed five agreements covering Loran, Monagas North procurement and oilfield expansion, while Loran and Dragon are expected to enable the first offshore gas exports. Siemens Energy (ENR GY) CEO said European offshore capacity may be downsized later in the decade if expansion targets are missed, while reaffirming its commitment to its 2026 breakeven strategy.
TECH: Nvidia (NVDA) announced that it will hold its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders online on 24th June at 12:00EDT/17:00BST. Elsewhere, Nvidia has reportedly informed Chinese clients that its “Vera” central processing unit for AI data centres could be available as early as August, with orders now being accepted.
Adobe (ADBE) shares fell 5.7% in extended US trading after it said its CFO is leaving (he is moving to Marvell Technology (MRVL)), reinforcing software-sector AI disruption concerns, and overshadowing record results, AI-driven demand and a raised outlook. Nasdaq announced its June 2026 quarterly rebalance of the Nasdaq 100 Index, effective before market open on 22nd June: Astera Labs (ALAB), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Teradyne (TER) will be added; Charter (CHTR), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), Insmed (INSM), Verisk (VRSK) and Zscaler (ZS) will be removed. Infineon (IFX GY) will open a EUR 5bln Dresden power-chip fab on 2nd July, backed by EUR 1bln in EU subsidies. Adyen (ADYEN NA) acquired Orb for USD 335mln, and reiterated guidance.
CONSUMER: Of note for automakers, Renault (RNO FP), Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) and Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) called for ‘Made in EU’ targets to retain production and engineering in the bloc. Flutter Entertainment (FLUT LN) said it will delist from the LSE on August 3rd.
FINANCIALS: Barclays (BARC LN) agreed to buy GoHenry from Acorns Grow Incorporated, with completion expected in Q4; terms were not disclosed. Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) appoints Robert Huray as head of investment banking and capital markets for Southeast Asia. Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY LN) sold JPY 75bln of yen-denominated Samurai bonds, its first such offering in two years; the issuance comes as Samurai sales have risen to JPY 503bln this fiscal year, the highest since 2015.
HEALTHCARE: Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) reported a security incident where certain information was copied externally without authorisation; it said that external cybersecurity experts are assisting its investigation. A GSK (GSK LN) meningitis injection will be used in an NHS two-dose vaccination programme for around 1mln young people at highest risk of meningococcal B disease. Elsewhere, GSK’s momelotinib received Orphan Drug Designation from the US FDA and EMA for treating VEXAS syndrome. Bloomberg notes that Bayer (BAYN) faces two pivotal Roundup catalysts in coming weeks — a SCOTUS ruling (expected by early July) on whether federal law bars cancer-warning suits, and a 9th July fairness hearing on a USD 7.25bln class-action settlement; Bayer has already paid USD 11bln+ across settlements, and still faces 65k+ outstanding cases; Jefferies sees share upside to EUR 50 in a positive scenario, and a fall to EUR 30 in an adverse scenario from the rulings.
NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Rolls Royce (RR/ LN) upgraded at Berenberg. Signify (LIGHT NA) downgraded at Goldman Sachs.

DAY AHEAD:

EVENTS: SpaceX (SPCX) will begin trading today following its IPO. Apple WWDC concludes (8-12 June).
DATA: In North America, US Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary for June is expected at 46.2 (prev. 44.8), with current conditions at 45.9 (prev. 45.8), and consumer expectations at 44.3 (prev. 44.1); the 1-year inflation expectations are seen unchanged at 4.8% (prev. 4.8%), and 5-year is seen paring to 3.8% (prev. 3.9%). Canada April wholesale sales final expected at 0.1% M/M (prev. 1.9%) and final manufacturing sales are also due (prev. 3.0% M/M).
ENERGY: Baker Hughes weekly rig counts due (prev. oil 431, total 563).
CRA: Fitch to review Norway (AAA).