EUROPEAN OPEN: GLEN LN profits slide amid declining coal earnings; BA/ LN sees record order intake; VOW3 GY receives initial bids for Everllence unit; HEI GY in talks for Akcansa Cimento; Lone Pine takes stake in ASML NA

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities have opened higher. Overnight, APAC stocks traded higher for the first time in four sessions, in thin holiday conditions, with several regional markets closed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed back above 57,000, supported by stronger than expected January trade data, which showed exports rising at their fastest pace in over three years. The RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25%, signalling that policy will remain accommodative as the economy regains momentum; Governor Breman’s debut decision was viewed as dovish, prompting traders to scale back tightening bets and pushing the NZD lower in wake of the announcement. Oil steadied after falling on Tuesday amid positive US-Iran nuclear talks; Brent held above USD 67/bbl, and WTI was near USD 62/bbl; Tehran cited a “general agreement” on potential deal terms, while US officials said Iran would return to Geneva with a revised proposal within two weeks. Gold climbed back above USD 4,900/oz as dip-buyers stepped in after a two-day slide, driven by a stronger USD. In data, UK CPI eased to 3.0% Y/Y in January (exp. 3.0%, prev. 3.4%), while monthly prices fell -0.5% M/M (exp. -0.5%, prev. +0.4%). Core inflation slipped to 3.1% Y/Y (exp. 3.1%, prev. 3.2%). Analysts said the data strengthens expectations that the BoE could opt to cut rates as soon as March, particularly as wage growth has also moderated, reinforcing a disinflation trend. Traders will eye minutes from the Fed’s January meeting for clues on the future rate path. Additionally, US-Ukraine-Russia talks are set to continue in Geneva.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, Lone Pine added ASML Holding (ASML NA) in Q4, purchasing 605k shares for a total value of USD 647.28mln. Ericsson (ERICB SS) and Mastercard (MA) announced they are to collaborate on enhancing global digital money movement and accelerate digital financial inclusion. In consumer sectors, Carrefour (CA FP) reported 2025 operating profit of EUR 2.158bln (exp. 2.051bln), down 5.4% amid integration costs; noted it enters 2026 with confidence. In autos, Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) has received initial bids from Blackstone (BX), EQT and CVC Capital Partners for its Everllence division, according to the FT; the unit is valued at between EUR 5-6bln, and VW plans to sell a majority stake while retaining a significant minority holding as part of its portfolio reshaping. In materials, Glencore (GLEN LN) FY core earnings USD 13.5bln (-6% Y/Y), as record copper prices were offset by weaker profits from its coal operations. Despite the decline, it said it will return USD 2bln to shareholders, including an additional USD 800mln top-up distribution. It said it expects to be producing over 1mln tonnes annualised by the end of 2028, and targets around 1.6mln tonnes of copper production by 2035. Heidelberg Materials (HEI GY) is in talks to buy a nearly 40% stake in Akcansa Cimento from Haci Omer Sabanci Holding, seeking majority control of the cement joint venture, BBG reports; Sabanci’s 39.7% holding was recently valued at about USD 1.1bln after it disclosed a third-party bid; Heidelberg is exploring a competing offer to secure the stake. In industrials, BAE Systems (BA/ LN) reported FY25 sales of GBP 30.7bln (exp. 30.7bln), with underlying EBIT rising +12% to GBP 3.32bln (exp. 3.27bln), while EPS rose 12% to GBP 0.752/shr; Order intake hit a record GBP 36.8bln, lifting its backlog to GBP 83.6bln. It raised its total dividend +10% to GBP 0.363 (exp. 0.355). Of note for UK defence stocks, Chancellor Reeves is reportedly resisting pressure to spend more on defence, according to The Telegraph. In financials, of note for Lloyds (LLOY LN) and Close Brothers (CBG LN), the UK’s FCA plans to reduce compensation in its GBP 11bln motor finance mis-selling scheme by up to GBP 1bln, potentially exempting carmakers’ in-house lenders from some payouts linked to undisclosed tied finance deals, FT reports. In healthcare, Novartis (NOVN SW) announced positive topline results from its pivotal Phase III RemIND trial of oral remibrutinib in chronic inducible urticaria. In notable broker updates, Unilever (ULVR LN) was downgraded at Berenberg; Demant (DEMANT DC) was upgraded at Nordea.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: US-Ukraine-Russia talks are set to continue in Geneva. Today’s ECB economic bulletin pre-release will focus on ‘global trade redirection: tracking the contribution of trade diversion from US tariffs on China’. Stateside, the highlight is the FOMC minutes from its January meeting (see below for primer). US durable goods orders are seen slipping again in December; housing starts are expected to rise in December, while building permits are expected to ease. US industrial production is expected to rise in January. Elsewhere, weekly MBA mortgage applications data, and the December TIC flows data are due. The Atlanta Fed will update its GDP tracking estimate after today’s data releases; currently, it is tracking Q4 growth at 3.7%. Today’s speakers include: ECB’s Cipollone and Schnabel; Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove) will speak on regulation. In supply, the US will auction USD 16bln of 20yr bonds; Germany will sell EUR 5.5bln of 2036 Bunds. Notable US corporates reporting today include: Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), CRH (CRH), Carvana (CVNA), Moody’s (MCO), DoorDash (DASH). In energy, the API will publish its weekly inventory statistics after the US close.
• PRIMER - FOMC MEETING MINUTES (19:00GMT/14:00EST): The Fed left rates unchanged at 3-50-3.75%, as expected, in a 10-2 vote, with Governors Miran and Waller dissenting in favour of a 25bps reduction. Miran had previously voted for a 50bps cut in December. The January statement upgraded its economic assessment, replacing “economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace” with “expanding at a solid pace”, “job gains have slowed this year” with “job gains have remained low”, and “the unemployment rate has edged up” with it having “shown some signs of stabilisation”. It also simplified “inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated” to “inflation remains somewhat elevated”. In its risk characterisation, December’s addition that the Committee “judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months” was removed, leaving only that it is attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate. The statement’s tone was slightly more positive on the economy and labour market and broadly unchanged on inflation. Ahead of the decision, traders looked for signals on the future policy path, but the statement offered no immediate clues and Chair Powellʼs press conference provided little by way of new information. Powell noted that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by the data and balance of risks. He said policy is well positioned, reiterating it is currently within a plausible neutral range, but towards the higher end. If Fed sees goods pricing peaking over this year, that suggests the Fed can loosen policy further. Powell highlighted that data since the December meeting has improved the outlook. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. Goods and tariff-related inflation expected to peak around mid-2026, with many effects already passed through. He noted that the labour market has weakened alongside solid growth, but recent data suggests stabilisation following a period of cooling. Job gains remain subdued, and while risks to employment have diminished, they have not disappeared, making it difficult to judge whether the dual mandate is fully in balance. Since the January meeting, Governor Waller (voter) has argued policy remains too restrictive, the labour market “does not look remotely healthy”, and tariff-driven inflation should be looked through. Governor Miran (voter) has said underlying inflation is not problematic and rates should be materially lower, warning policy may be passively tightening, though he added that after this weekʼs jobs data his concerns about the labour market have eased slightly. Governor Cook (voter) stressed stalled disinflation and the need to maintain credibility. Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) described policy as well positioned, expects tariff effects to fade and inflation to ease in 2026. Logan and Hammack (both 2026 voters), characterised rates as around neutral, signalling no urgency to cut unless labour conditions deteriorate materially. Among non-voters, Musalem and Schmid cautioned against further easing with inflation near 3%, while Daly, Barkin and Bostic emphasised resilience but warned inflation remains above target. Note, the minutes are an account of the January 28th meeting, so it will not incorporate the January jobs report and CPI data.