EUROPEAN OPEN: IFX GY sees higher sales, lifts investment to meet AI demand; UBS SW net profit surges; GSK LN topped profit expectations in Q4; NOVN SW sees low operating profit decline in 2026; NOVOB DC warns sales & profit growth will decline in 2026

• STOCK SPECIFICS: In financials, Zurich Insurance (ZURN SW) agreed key takeover terms for Beazley (BEZ LN) after raising its offer to GBP 13.10/shr from GBP 12.80/shr; Beazley said its board would recommend a deal if a firm offer is made. UBS (UBSG SW) Q4 net profit was up +56% to USD 1.2bln, helped by client activity and cost savings from its Credit Suisse takeover; FY profit rose +53% to USD 7.8bln, with USD 13.5bln of targeted synergies, and USD 3bln of buybacks completed. Credit Agricole (ACA FP) missed Q4 profit estimates as costs rose to revamp its Italian unit and provisions increased; operating expenses rose +4.7% to EUR 4.1bln (exp. 3.9bln), and provisions totalled EUR 629mln, including legal risks from UK car loans and support for Banca Progetto. CIB revenue was EUR 2.15bln (exp. 2.14bln). Santander (SAN SM) announced a EUR 5bln share buyback after agreeing to buy Webster Financial (WBS) for USD 12bln; Spain’s largest lender reported Q4 net income of EUR 3.76bln (exp. 3.48bln), and EPS of 0.24 (exp. 0.22). In tech, Infineon (IFX GY) reported Q1 revenue of EUR 3.66bln (exp. 3.62bln), and EPS of 0.19 (exp. 0.23); will invest an extra EUR 500mln in manufacturing this year, lifting its 2026 investment plan to EUR 2.7bln to meet data centre demand; expects AI revenue of EUR 1.5bln this year and EUR 2.5bln next. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares fell 7.4% in extended trading, as investors focused on Q1 guidance that, while above consensus, did not meet some analysts’ lofty expectations for a stronger outlook amid accelerating AI-related spending. Nvidia’s (NVDA) planned sales of H200 AI chips to China remain stalled pending a US national security review, despite December approval from President Trump, FT reports. Chinese customers have paused orders amid uncertainty. Separately, Bloomberg reports that Nvidia is nearing a deal to invest USD 20bln in OpenAI as part of the ChatGPT developer’s latest funding round; the investment would be Nvidia’s largest to date, though the deal is not final and terms may change. Texas Instruments (TXN) is in advanced talks to buy Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) for about USD 7bln, valuing it above its USD 4.4bn market cap, FT reports; it would mark the chipmaker’s biggest deal since its USD 6.5bn National Semiconductor takeover in 2011. Super Micro Computer’s (SMCI) shares rose +7.7% in extended trading after it raised annual revenue guidance, citing continued strong demand for its AI-optimised servers from data centre and enterprise customers. In communications, Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) shares rose over 5% in extended trading after it reported a beat on quarterly bookings expectations, and issued stronger than expected guidance. Electronic Arts (EA) beat Q3 bookings estimates, driven by strong sales of Battlefield 6. Q3 EPS 0.35 (may not compare vs an exp. 4.72; vs 1.11 Y/Y), Q3 revenue USD 1.9bln (exp. 2.92bln); Q3 net bookings USD 3.046bln (exp. 2.92bln). In consumer sectors, Carlsberg (CARLB DC) reported premium beer growth rose +5% Y/Y, and widened its FY operating profit guidance, reflecting caution over drinks demand; the brewer expects organic growth of +2-6% in 2026 (vs a range of +3-5% the previous year), amid ongoing uncertainty. Mondelez (MDLZ) shares fell 3.5% in extended trading, amid cautious FY guidance and ongoing cocoa cost headwinds. Watches of Switzerland (WOSG LN) raised its annual sales forecast, citing robust demand for key luxury brands in the US and UK; now expects sales growth of +9-11% for the FY (prev. saw +6-10%), reflecting stronger market conditions. In energy, Equinor (EQNR NO) reported lower Q4 profit as oil and gas prices fell, but results beat expectations. Q4 adj. operating income was USD 6.2bln (exp. 5.95bln), adj. EPS 0.81 (prev. 0.63 Y/Y); production rose to a record 2.14mln BOEPD in 2025, with buybacks cut to USD 1.5bln in 2026. Expects 2026 production growth of around +3%. In healthcare, Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) warned sales and profit growth will decline in 2026 due to US pricing pressure and loss of exclusivity in China, Brazil and Canada; It sees sales and operating profit falling by 5-13%; its US-listed shares saw downside as much as 14% on Tuesday. GSK (GSK LN) topped profit expectations in Q4, driven by strong sales of its HIV and asthma medicines, providing an early boost for the new CEO. Novartis (NOVN SW) core EPS topped expectations in Q4, while revenue missed, and it forecast a low single-digit percentage decline in 2026 operating profit, citing competition from cheaper copies including Entresto. In notable broker updates, Rotork (ROR LN) was upgraded at BNP Paribas; Berkeley Group Holding (BKG LN) was upgraded at JPMorgan; Alfa Laval (ALFA SS) was upgraded at Nordea; Outokumpu (OUT1V FH) was upgraded at SEB; Publicis (PUB FP) was downgraded at Barclays.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: Eurozone flash inflation data is expected to show the headline inflation rate cooling to 1.7% Y/Y from 1.9%, while the core measure is seen unchanged at 2.3%. Final services and composite PMI data for January are due. Stateside, the monthly ADP national employment data will be released, where analysts expect 48k from the prior 41k. The ISM services PMI headline is expected to ease to 53.5 from 54.4, where employment is seen nudging up a little, but prices and new orders are seen easing a touch. The US Treasury’s QRA is due today too. On the speakers’ slate, Fed’s Cook (voter, neutral) will speak afterhours on monetary policy and the economic outlook. In supply, Germany will sell EUR 4.0bln of 2032 debt. Notable corporate earnings reports due today include: Alphabet (GOOGL), Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), Uber (UBER), Qualcomm (QCOM), Boston Scientific (BSX), Arm (ARM), CME (CME), McKesson (MCK). In energy, weekly API data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a chunky surprise draw of -11.1mln bbls (exp. +0.5mln), Cushing drew down by -1.4mln bbls; distillates drew down more than expected at -4.8mln bbls (exp. -2.3mln), while gasoline stocks saw a larger than expected build of +4.7mln bbls (exp. +1.4mln). The more widely followed DoE data is due later today.