EUROPEAN OPEN: INTC surges on earnings beat and robust guidance; SAP GY rises on profit beat, EUR 10bln buyback; ENR GY raises FY26 targets; ENI IM raises buyback and FY26 cash-flow guidance

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened lower; the Stoxx 600 and Euro Stoxx 50 futures on course for weekly losses, snapping a four-week run of gains, as geopolitical risk in the Middle East weighs on sentiment. Israel was reportedly on high alert before a possible renewed war this weekend, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf resigned from the negotiating team after IRGC intervention. US President Trump said Washington would work with Lebanon to help protect it from Hezbollah and that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire would be extended by three weeks. Oil rose for a fifth day as limited US-Iran progress towards resumed de-escalation talks kept supply concerns elevated; Brent climbed above USD 106/bbl and is set for its biggest weekly gain since the war’s first week. Overnight, the USD rose towards a 10-day high as reports of intensifying Middle East hostilities dented optimism over a potential end to the conflict. Treasury yields edged slightly higher on the lack of meaningful US-Iran peace progress, though SocGen analysts said front-end sell-offs remain buying opportunities. Gold edged lower, below USD 4,970/oz, with investors weighing whether higher crude prices from the US-Iran conflict could keep inflation and interest rates elevated. Copper headed for a weekly loss, with broader base metals also under pressure, as uncertainty over the Middle East war clouded the global growth outlook; the US and Iran showed little sign of returning to talks after Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, while the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked.
• DATA: Overnight, data showed, Japan CPI rose +0.4% M/M in March (prev. -0.2%), with the annual rate climbing to 1.5% Y/Y (from 1.3%); the ex-food and energy measure eased to 2.4% Y/Y (from 2.5%), while the core rate rose to 1.8% Y/Y (exp. 1.8%, prev. 1.6%). Analysts said that CPI rose as the Middle East war lifted energy costs. The BoJ is seen keeping rates unchanged next week. UK retail sales rose 0.7% M/M in March (exp. 0.0%), and the annual rate was at 1.7% Y/Y (exp. 1.3%, prev. 2.5%); the ex-fuel measure rose +0.2% M/M (exp. 0.2%), with the annual ex-fuel rate easing to 1.7% Y/Y (exp. 2.0%, prev. 3.4%); the ONS said volumes sold online and in stores increased as motorists filled up on fuel after petrol prices surged amid conflict in the Middle East.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, SAP (SAP GY) shares rose after it reported better-than-expected operating profit and revenue, with cloud metrics also topping expectations; the company said it will buy back EUR 10bln of shares. Intel (INTC) shares surged by over 20% in extended US Trading after stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue in Q1, robust Q2 guidance, growing signs of a business revival, strong data centre and foundry growth, and optimism around rising AI-related CPU and advanced packaging demand. In consumer sectors, Mercedes (MBG GY) expects China’s market to remain tough as economic strains deter customers from buying premium vehicles; China chief said a prolonged property crisis, high youth unemployment and higher petrol prices linked to the Iran conflict were weighing on demand and spending power. In energy, Eni (ENI IM) raised its buyback to EUR 2.8bln, and lifted FY26 cash-flow guidance; Q1 adj. net profit fell to EUR 1.3bln (exp. 1.50bln), revenue EUR 20.1bln (prev. 19.2bln Y/Y), adj. EBIT EUR 3.54bln (exp. 2.77bln); production was up +9% Y/Y; FY CFFO guidance was raised to 13.8bln. In industrials, Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN SW) raised the lower end of its FY recurring EBIT guidance to CHF 1.25-1.4bln (prev. saw 1.2-1.4bln) after cost cuts boosted Q1 earnings. It said the Middle East conflict hit sea freight volumes, while air, road and contract logistics made a strong start to the year. Vinci (DG FP) reported Q1 revenue of EUR 16.3bln (prev. 16.320bln Y/Y), order intake rose 5% to EUR 17.4bln, lifting its order book to a record EUR 74.9bln; Energy Solutions revenue rose 5.4%, Concessions grew 2% and Construction declined 3.4%; FY guidance was left unchanged. Signify (LIGHT NA) Q1 sales fell 12% to EUR 1.27bln (exp. 1.32bln), as soft demand and a weaker US dollar weighed on results; net income fell to EUR 8mln (vs 67mln Y/Y) after it booked EUR 63mln in restructuring costs; it said it was not providing FY guidance given uncertainties. Siemens Energy (ENR GY) Q2 sales rose 8.9% to EUR 10.3bln (exp. 10.8bln), while profit before special items rose 28% to EUR 1.16bln; raised FY26 targets after a strong Q2, citing accelerating demand for generation and grid hardware as electricity use climbs; it now sees sales growth of 14-16% (prev. saw 11-13%), and profit margins between 10-12% (prev. saw 9-11%). In materials, Yara International (YAR NO) Q1 EBITDA ex-items rose to USD 896mln (exp. 825mln), driven by higher nitrogen margins, strong deliveries and operational improvements; expects gas costs to rise USD 150mln Y/Y in Q2, and USD 120mln Y/Y in Q3 Y/Y; targets a mid-2026 Louisiana ammonia investment decision. Mondi (MNDI LN) is raising prices after the Iran war lifted energy, raw material and shipping costs; it said it has limited direct exposure to the conflict zone but pays globally set input and freight prices; full pricing impact is expected by Q3; added that packaging demand remains soft. In financials, Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) chief Lovaglio is considering selling a EUR 7.4bln stake in Generali (G IM) to help fund an acquisition of Banco BPM (BAMI IM), FT reports. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square (PSH LN) plans to offer up to 33.12mln shares in an IPO at an expected price of USD 50/shr, WSJ reports; it has applied to list on the NYSE under the symbol PS. In notable broker updates, Capgemini (CAP FP) downgraded at UBS; Imperial Brands (IMB LN) downgraded at Morgan Stanley; British American Tobacco (BATS LN) upgraded at Morgan Stanley; Neste (NESTE FH) upgraded at UBS; Roche (ROP SW) upgraded at Morgan Stanley; Nokia (NOKIA FH) upgraded at Nordea.

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In Europe, Germany’s April Ifo  is expected to see the business climate at 85.5 (prev. 86.4), expectations at 85 (prev. 86.0), current conditions at 86.2 (prev. 86.7). In North America, US Michigan final sentiment is expected to see consumer sentiment at 47.6 (prev. 53.3, current conditions at 50.1 (prev. 55.8), expectations at 46.1 (prev. 51.7), while one-year inflation expectations are seen up to 4.8% (prev. 3.8%), and five-year expectations at 3.4% (prev. 3.2%). Canada retail sales are seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.9%).
• RATINGS: On today’s CRA docket, S&P will potentially review Germany (AAA), Scope on Italy (BBB+), Turkey (BB-) and the US (AA-).
• CENTRAL BANKS: The BoE DMP and Agents’ summary of business conditions also due. The Russian central bank is expected to cut its benchmark rate by 50bps to 14.5%, the fifth straight 50bps reduction. Today’s speaker’s slate includes SNB’s Schlegel.
• SUPPLY: Italy will sell EUR 2.25-2.5bln of 2028 BTPs.
• ENERGY: Baker Hughes will publish weekly US rig counts data (prev. 543 total, 410 oil, 133 gas).
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today include: Procter & Gamble (PG), HCA Healthcare (HCA), SLB (SLB), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Charter Communications (CHTR).