EUROPEAN OPEN: MSFT, QCOM, GOOG, AMZN higher after earnings, META lower; BAS GY beats in Q1, backs FY26 targets; ULVR sales rise, supported by EMs; STLAM IM tops expectations, VOW3 GY profit misses; ACA FP fixed income misses, GLE FP trading sales slide

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• TECH: Microsoft (MSFT) shares ultimately slipped by 1.8% in choppy extended trading, after stronger-than-expected Azure growth guidance and confidence in demand were offset by concerns over record AI-driven capital spending, only modest cloud growth in the quarter, and rising competitive pressures. Qualcomm (QCOM) shares rallied over 10% in extended trading, following an initial sell-off on weaker guidance, but reversed after an earnings beat, news that shipments to a large hyperscaler data centre customer will start earlier than previously indicated, expectations that the Chinese smartphone market will bottom in the Q3 and return to sequential growth, and record automotive revenue. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) shares rose overnight after it reported record-beating profit and revenue driven by AI-linked memory demand, chip shortages and higher memory prices, with continued strength in server memory and high-bandwidth memory supporting sentiment.
• COMMUNICATIONS: Meta Platforms (META) shares fell by 7.3% in extended trading after on concerns over higher AI infrastructure spending, mounting legal and regulatory scrutiny around youth social media harms, a decline in daily active people, and results that, while ahead on revenue, failed to impress against stronger big-tech peers. Alphabet (GOOG) shares rose 6.5% in extended trading after strong Q1 revenue and profit growth, with booming cloud demand and management saying AI is driving growth across the business.
• MATERIALS: BASF (BAS GY) Q1 EPS 1.06 (prev. 0.91), Q1 revenue EUR 16.0bln (exp. 16.0bln), Q1 adj. EBITDA -5.6% Y/Y at EUR 2.36bln (exp. 2.19bln); sales declined slightly as strong adverse FX effects and slightly lower prices offset performance elsewhere; reaffirmed FY26 adj. EBITDA guidance of EUR 6.2-7.0bln, while warning that the Middle East conflict and oil-price swings could affect its outlook. Glencore (GLEN LN) said Q1 trading performance puts FY core earnings from its trading unit on course to “comfortably” exceed the USD 3.5bln top end of long-term guidance; the unit made USD 2.9bln last year, while oil and gas trading profits benefited as the Iran war disrupted energy markets. ArcelorMittal (MT NA) Q1 net profit fell to USD 575mln (exp. 498mln; vs 805mln Y/Y), EBITDA rose to USD 1.68bln (from 1.58bln); said higher EU steel import tariffs, due from 1st July, could boost production and earnings.
• INDUSTRIALS: DHL (DHL GY) Q1 EBIT EUR 1.48bln (exp. 1.38bln), operating margin rose to 7.3% (from 6.6% Y/Y); CEO said it kept cargo moving despite blocked sea routes and closed airspace, and was on track to achieve FY targets. Air France-KLM (AF FP) expects its 2026 fuel bill to rise by USD 2.4bln due to the Middle East conflict, reaching USD 9.3bln; it said USD 1.1bln will be booked in the current quarter, based on current hedges and forward fuel-price projections, and trimmed its FY capacity outlook.
• ENERGY: Repsol (REP SM) Q1 adj. net income rose to EUR 873mln (exp. 897mln), adj. EBITDA rose to EUR 2.61bln, while its Spanish refining margin more than doubled to USD 10.90/bbl; plans to raise kerosene production by 15-20% amid Iran-war-related jet fuel supply disruption.
• CONSUMER: Amazon (AMZN) shares rose 2% in extended trading on better-than-expected earnings and revenue, stronger-than-expected AWS and advertising growth, accelerating cloud momentum, and upbeat second-quarter sales guidance. Unilever (ULVR LN) reported Q1 underlying sales growth of 3.8% (exp. 3.6%), driven by home care and beauty brands; underlying volume growth 2.9% (exp. 1.8%); maintained its FY26 sales and profit margin forecasts. Puma (PUM GY) reported Q1 EBIT of EUR 51.9mln (exp. 43mln), supported by inventory clearance and lower operating expenses. Estee Lauder (EL) said to consider a Puig (PUIG SM) bid between EUR 18-19/shr; EL said to have offered Marc Puig co-presidency of the group alongside William Lauder. Delivery Hero (DHER GY) Q1 GMV rose 8.8% to EUR 12.5bln (exp. 12.26bln); FY guidance confirmed. Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) reported 0.2% organic annual sales growth, its first positive annual sales since 2023, but slightly below analyst expectations; Q4 cognac sales +15.5%, supported by China and a favourable comparison base, while Americas sales recorded a slight decline; CEO will detail its turnaround strategy in June.
• AUTOS: Porsche AG (P911 GY) reported Q1 operating profit of EUR 595mln and a 7.1% return, near the top of its annual forecast range; profit fell Y/Y due to US tariffs and lower deliveries, including a 21% slump in China. Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) reported Q1 operating profit -14% Y/Y  to EUR 2.5bln, missing expectations for a broadly flat result; revenue fell 2.5% to EUR 75.7bln (exp. 77.6bln); CFO said planned cost cuts were insufficient; kept FY guidance, excluding any Middle East conflict escalation. Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) reported Q1 net profit of EUR 377mln (vs loss of EUR 387mln Y/Y), Revenue 38.1bln (prev. 35.8bln Y/Y), adj. operating income and net sales also rose, supported by rising North American demand for refreshed Jeep and Ram models; 2026 guidance was confirmed. Michelin (ML FP) Q1 sales fell 5.4% to EUR 6.17bln (exp. 6.11bln), due to negative currency effects; Passenger Car & Light Truck tyre volumes rose 1%, Transportation revenue fell; confirmed FY26 guidance, despite Middle East-related supply and cost risks.
• FINANCIALS: Credit Agricole (ACA FP) reported Q1 fixed income revenue -9%, and financing revenue -6%, amid market volatility driving cautious client behaviour; corporate and investment banking revenue -4% Y/Y, despite a 27% gain in structured equity, M&A and equity capital markets, while a key capital-strength metric declined. BNP Paribas (BNP FP) Q1 net income +9% Y/Y to EUR 3.22bln (exp. 2.93bln), revenue increased 8.5% to EUR 14.1bln (exp. 13.95bln); trading revenue rose 2.5%, while investment banking revenue -0.8%; credit loss provisions rose to EUR 922mln (from EUR 766mln). Societe Generale (GLE FP) Q1 net income EUR 1.70bln (exp. 1.55bln), Q1 revenue EUR 7.11bln (exp. 7.18bln); operating profit rose to EUR 4.33bln (from EUR 2.03bln Y/Y), equities trading income +5.5%, rebounding from the prior quarter’s decline, and income in the division which holds its French retail bank rose 8.9%, helped by lower rates for regulated savings accounts, offsetting an 18% fall in fixed-income trading revenue. BBVA (BBVA SM) Q1 net profit +10.8% Y/Y to EUR 2.99bln (exp. 2.79bln), supported by Mexico, Spain and higher lending income; NII +17.8% to EUR 7.54bln (exp. 7.23bln); will launch the final tranche of its up to EUR 1.46bln buyback next week. ING Group (INGA NA) launched a EUR 1bln share buyback after Q1 profit reached EUR 1.56bln (exp. 1.43bln); total income +3%, net interest income +7% to EUR 4.06bln, fee income +13%; confirmed 2026 and 2027 guidance.
• HEALTHCARE: Zealand Pharma (ZEAL DC) and Roche (ROP SW) will advance amylin analogue petrelintide to Phase 3 trials for chronic weight management, with initiation planned for H2 2026; Zealand said petrelintide demonstrated double-digit weight loss with placebo-like tolerability in the ZUPREME-1 Phase 2 trial. Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) said NEJM published 26-week Phase 3 FRONTIER2 results showing once-monthly and once-weekly denecimig sharply reduced treated bleeds in haemophilia A.

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In Europe, Eurozone flash CPI (exp. 2.9% Y/Y, prev. 2.6%; core exp. 2.3% Y/Y, prev. 2.3%) and GDP (exp. 0.0% Q/Q, vs prev. 0.2%, and exp. 0.8% Y/Y, vs prev. 1.2%), German GDP (exp. 0.2% Q/Q, prev. 0.3%; exp. 0.3% Y/Y, prev. 0.4%), unemployment (exp. 6.3%, prev. 6.3%). In North America, US advance GDP (headline seen at 1.5%), weekly jobless claims are seen at 219K (from 214K), PCE for March (exp. 3.5% Y/Y from 2.8%; core seen at 3.2% from 3.0%), Chicago PMI (prev. 52.8), Atlanta Fed GDPNow update, Canada GDP (exp. 0.2% M/M).
• CENTRAL BANKS: The BoE is expected to keep its Bank Rate AT 3.75%; BoE Governor Bailey (neutral) will give post meeting remarks. The ECB is expected to keep its three main rates unchanged; ECB President Lagarde will give remarks after the policy announcement. See below for previews.
• EVENTS: President Trump is due to receive a CENTCOM briefing on new Iran military options on Thursday; options include a short wave of strikes, reopening part of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, and possibly securing Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee takes place.
• ENERGY: EIA natural gas storage is due. Brent Jun 2026 futures expire.
• EARNINGS: Notable companies reporting today include: Apple (AAPL), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Caterpillar (CAT), Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), ConocoPhillips (COP), Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Stryker (SYK), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Altria (MO), Trane Technologies (TT), Southern Company (SO), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), Cigna (CI), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Valero (VLO), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), L3Harris (LHX), Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), Cardinal Health (CAH), Roblox (RBLX), AIG (AIG), Hershey (HSY), Reddit (RDDT), DTE Energy (DTE), Willis Towers Watson (WTW), DexCom (DXCM), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Smurfit Westrock (SW), Rivian (RIVN), First Solar (FSLR), Fortive (FTV), International Paper (IP), Roku (ROKU), CNH Industrial (CNH), GoDaddy (GDDY), Clorox (CLX), Baxter (BAX), Molson Coors (TAP).
• PREVIEW – BOE POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (12:00BST/07:00EDT): Expected to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75% in what will likely be a 9-0 vote, though dissent on both the dovish and hawkish side of the MPC cannot be ruled out. The decision to hold rates is likely due to the lack of clarity on the duration and size of the shock, with particular respect to second round pricing effects. Additionally, the MPC has to weigh up the price pressures with the economic hit from the shock, to a UK economy that was subject to relatively weak domestic activity pre-conflict. Aprilʼs meeting includes an MPR, where the forecasts are likely to be stagflationary in nature; however, the BoE may elect to caveat and downplay the pertinence of the baseline and any alternate forecasts, given the elevated levels of uncertainty. Thereafter, we look to the accompanying statements and press conference from Governor Bailey at 12:30BST for any insight into the timing of the next move, i.e. whether the June meeting is live, or if the MPC is biased to waiting until the July MPR. However, neither the statement nor Bailey will likely be that explicit at this stage. Instead, we look for any endorsement of market pricing, to whatever degree, something that would be of particular note given Bailey has pushed back on it on several occasions. Click here for Newsquawk’s full preview.
• PREVIEW – ECB POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (13:15BST/08:15EDT): The relatively limited amount of data, no overt signs of second round effects and uncertainty on the duration of the shock and degree of pass through mean the ECB is likely to maintain its interest rates and hold the Deposit Rate at 2.00%. Accompanying guidance will likely see a continuation of the wait and see approach, with the statement and/or President Lagarde to potentially point to the June MPR as a period where sufficient information may be available to make a policy decision. Lagarde speaks from 13:45BST onwards. Click here for Newsquawk’s full preview.
• PREVIEW – US PCE (13:30BST/08:30EDT): PCE prices are seen rising by 0.6% M/M in March (prev. 0.4%), with the annual rate at 3.5% Y/Y (prev. 2.8%); the core measure is seen at 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.4%), while the annual core rate is seen rising to 3.2% Y/Y (prev. 3.0%). At his post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell said that he sees PCE at 3.5% Y/Y in March, and sees core PCE at 3.2% Y/Y, backing the consensus view. The recent CPI data, with headline inflation at 3.3% Y/Y and core at 2.6% Y/Y in March, alongside PPI, where headline inflation was 4.0% Y/Y and core was 3.8%, showed that energy was the main driver of the headline CPI jump. Core CPI offered some relief, but PPI components that feed into PCE, including airfares, healthcare and portfolio management, suggest services inflation remains sticky. Citiʼs analysts said core PCE inflation has been stuck around 3.0% Y/Y, while core CPI has eased a little more, to around 2.5-2.6% Y/Y. “Headline inflation will likely continue to be strong in the near term as energy prices have remained elevated,” the bank wrote, adding that it does “not expect much passthrough of higher energy prices to core inflation, but with upside risks to our forecasts for components like goods prices.” In terms of policy implications, analysts say a firmer core print would strengthen the higher-for-longer rates narrative and reduce conviction in near-term cuts. A softer core reading would help revive the disinflation story, but probably only at the margin, given the recent signs of persistent price pressure and the Fedʼs cautious, data-dependent stance. Citi also noted that “the Fed and markets remain focused on medium- and longer-term inflation expectations that have stayed anchored,” and said it expects more benign monthly core inflation readings in the summer and Autumn.