EUROPEAN OPEN: NFLX drops after unchanged guidance, Hastings to leave board; ERICB SS Q1 miss amid chip cost pressures; KNEBV FH in advanced talks for TK Elevator; UBER raises DHER GY stake; EN FP, ORA FP consortium enters exclusive SFR talks

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities are set to start Friday flat/lower, with early risk appetite fading after overnight support from a Lebanon ceasefire was tempered by reports that Israeli forces targeted an ambulance team in southern Lebanon. Futures for both the Stoxx 600 and Euro Stoxx 50 remain on course for a fourth straight weekly gain. A 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect at 17:00EDT/22:00BST on Thursday, though Israeli PM Netanyahu rejected Hezbollah’s demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, saying forces would remain in a security zone extending to the Syrian border. A Hezbollah source said Lebanon retains the right to resist by all means while Israeli forces remain, while Iran welcomed the ceasefire but also called for a full withdrawal. On Iran, President Trump struck an optimistic tone on prospects for a permanent US-Iran ceasefire and said Tehran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though some European and Gulf Arab leaders cautioned a deal could still take around six months; Trump nevertheless said an announcement could come soon. In crude, prices fell on hopes of reduced Middle East supply disruption, with Brent moving towards USD 98/bbl and WTI near USD 93/bbl, before recovering slightly on the Lebanon ambulance report. US Treasuries are broadly flat; SocGen said yields remain elevated, while Barclays said markets have largely unwound Iran war-related uncertainty but are now assuming oil prices and inflation stay higher for longer. The Dollar Index is little changed; Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo are among banks suggesting the Buck’s war-driven haven rally is running out of steam as the ceasefire pushes investors back towards riskier assets; State Street said global investors have raised dollar hedging ratios to a two-year high, while options positioning is the least bullish in weeks. Gold is on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up almost 1% on the week, though it is trading slightly lower beneath USD 4,800/oz heading into the European session. In the UK, PM Starmer faces calls to resign from opposition leaders after the Guardian on Thursday reported that Lord Mandelson failed security vetting for the US ambassador role, with the Foreign Office overriding the recommendation; PM Starmer’s Chief Secretary said he will not resign, and added that Starmer did not mislead Parliament.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In communications, Netflix (NFLX) shares fell 9.3% in extended trading after the company reiterated FY guidance, with investors said to be disappointed with no upgraded view, and announced that co-founder Reed Hastings said he will not stand for re-election to the board at the June annual meeting. A consortium of Bouygues Telecom (EN FP), Iliad and Orange (ORA FP) has entered exclusive talks to acquire France’s second-largest mobile carrier SFR from Patrick Drahi’s Altice France for EUR 20.35bln; the amount is up vs an initial EUR 17bln bid, which was rejected in October. In tech, Ericsson (ERICB SS) missed forecasts in Q1 amid weak telecoms equipment demand and AI-driven chip cost pressures; Networks posted 7% organic sales growth, with North American weakness offset by other regions; CFO said input cost headwinds will persist until chip supply and demand rebalances, while Middle East disruption had no material impact. Uber Technologies (UBER) is reportedly said to acquire an additional 4.5% stake in Delivery Hero (DHER GY) from Prosus (PRX NA), in a EUR 270mln deal (EUR 20/shr). In financials, OCBC has emerged as the preferred bidder for HSBC (HSBA LN) retail assets in Indonesia; the Singaporean lender is seeking a deal that could value HSBC’s consumer business in the country at around USD 350mln. Unconfirmed reports suggest that a threat actor is reportedly offering a 26K credential combo list allegedly linked to Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) accounts on a dark web forum, claimed to include over 26,000 username-password pairs, though the data remains unverified and likely aggregated rather than from a direct breach. In industrials, Kone (KNEBV FH) is in advanced talks to acquire TK Elevator from Advent and Cinven, Bloomberg reports; Kone aims to reach a deal by the end of the month, with TK Elevator’s owners seeking a valuation of up to EUR 25bln. Alstom (ALO FP) has scrapped its financial guidance for the FY through March 2027, abandoning targets for EUR 1.5bln in cumulative FCF and an adj. EBIT margin of up to 10%, with new CEO Martin Sion citing slow progress on key rolling stock projects. In materials, the US Senate narrowly voted to overturn former President Biden’s mining ban in northern Minnesota, reversing the 20-year block of mining across 255,504 minerals-rich acres and boost Antofagasta’s (ANTO LN) Twin Metals copper, cobalt and nickel projects. In notable broker updates, Aurubis (NDA GY) was downgraded at Kepler; Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) was downgraded at Danske Bank; ASML (ASML NA) was upgraded at Freedom Broker; STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP) was upgraded at Mizuho; Eni (ENI IM) was upgraded at BNP Paribas; Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GY) was upgraded at BofA; Reckitt (RKT LN) was upgraded at Kepler; Orsted (ORSTED DC) was upgraded at SEB; Skanska (SKAB SS) was initiated with Buy at Deutsche Bank; Yara (YARA NO) was downgraded at Danske Bank.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: Today’s data docket is thin. In Europe, the balance of trade is expected to print a surplus of just under EUR 12bln (vs a prior deficit of EUR 1.9bln). Canada will report housing starts figures. In energy, Baker Hughes will publish its weekly rig count statistics. On today’s CRA slate, S&P is set to review the Netherlands (AAA) and Turkey (BB-), while Morningstar DBRS is set to review the EU (AAA) and Italy (A). Today’s speakers include: BoE’s Breeden (dovish) on the financial system; BoE’s Pill (hawkish) will participate at a breakfast roundtable; Fed’s Daly (2027 voter, dove; no text expected) will speak on policy and the economy; Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter, neutral; no text expected) to speak on the economic outlook, repeating remarks he made on 27th of March; Fed’s Waller (voter, dove; text expected) will also speak on the outlook; NOTE: The Fed will enter its blackout window on 18th April ahead of its 29th April confab. Notable US corporates reporting today include: Truist Financial (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street (STT), Regions Financial (RF), Autoliv (ALV).