EUROPEAN OPEN: NOVN SW profit & sales fall on generic competition, may upgrade outlook ahead; BARC LN profits flat as provision offsets growth; BP/ LN profit jumps as oil trading beats expectations; WPP LN Q1 sales beats, affirms outlook amid uncertainty

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened flat/lower as traders weighed limited progress in the latest US-Iran engagements, and persistent disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran offered to halt attacks on shipping in the Strait in exchange for a full end to the war, including the US lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports and delaying nuclear talks. US officials said President Trump and his national security team remain sceptical, with multiple outlets reporting the White House is unlikely to accept any Hormuz proposal that does not address nuclear issues. Sources said Washington will keep negotiating and respond with counterproposals. Secretary of State Rubio said the US cannot accept Iran retaining control of the Strait, deciding which vessels can pass, or imposing Iranian tolls. Brent edged higher, trading near USD 104/bbl, as traders balanced possible peace talks against the Strait remaining almost impassable and Trump maintaining his “red lines” on any deal. Gold traded lower, near USD 4,630/oz. In FX, the USD rose after a US official said Trump was sceptical of Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait and end the conflict. The JPY strengthened against the USD after the BoJ kept rates unchanged, with three of nine policymakers calling for a 25bps hike, signalling a higher probability of a June rate rise. Policymakers also lifted inflation forecasts and cut growth projections. In data, the BRC said UK shop price inflation slowed to 1% Y/Y in April (vs 1.2% in March), as retailers offered heavier discounts amid weakening consumer confidence; food prices rose 3.1% (vs 3.4% in March), while non-food prices fell 0.1% (vs +0.1% in the year to March). BRC also warned that Middle East conflict costs may soon feed into consumer prices.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In healthcare, Novartis (NOVN SW) Q1 core operating profit -12% Y/Y to USD 4.9bln (exp. 5.2bln); Entresto sales dropped 42% after US patents expired and generics launched; the company expects USD 4bln of sales decline this year from generic competition. It confirmed FY core operating income guidance, and CEO said it remains on track to deliver that guidance, adding that we should look forward to multiple readouts in the H2 that could raise its mid- to long-term growth outlook. SCOTUS appeared divided over whether Bayer (BAYN GY) can be sued for allegedly failing to warn that its Roundup weedkiller may cause cancer; the case could determine the fate of thousands of lawsuits and billions in liability. Of note for weight-loss drugs, Boehringer Ingelheim said late-stage trial data for its obesity drug Survodutide showed potential to predominantly target visceral fat rather than muscle; CEO said the results were promising as the company seeks a place in the weight-loss treatment market. In financials, Barclays (BARC LN) Q1 profit before tax of GBP 2.8bln (exp. 2.8bln); a GBP 200mln provision for a single company exposure offset robust trading, while investment bank income rose 4% to GBP 4bln (exp. 3.97bln). Barclays also announced a GBP 500mln buyback. CEO said it remains confident in delivering all financial targets. Deutsche Borse (DB1 GY) Q1 net profit +11% to EUR 585mln (vs from 525mln Y/Y), in line with expectations, and confirmed its 2026 guidance. In energy, BP (BP/ LN) reported Q1 EPS of USD 0.21 (exp. 0.17), revenue of USD 52.25bln (exp. 57.6bln), adj. net income USD 3.20bln (exp. 2.64bln), citing “exceptional” oil trading and stronger midstream performance. Upstream plant reliability improved to 95.7%, while production was broadly flat. Sees Q2 reported upstream production FY26 reported upstream production both declining; it confirmed FY26 capex guidance of USD 13.0-13.5bln, and expects divestment and other proceeds of USD 9-10bln this year. Eni (ENI IM) and Repsol (REP SM) are seeking to raise production at Venezuela’s Cardon IV gas field to 645mln cubic feet per day (from about 580mln). In materials, Nucor (NUE) reported topped Q1 sales and profit expectations, helped by particularly strong results in its steel mills business; CEO noted strong start to 2026, driven by strong demand across key end markets, growing contributions from recent capital investments and federal trade policies that continue to reduce unfairly traded imports into the US. Anglo American (AAL LN) reported mixed Q1 production figures, but kept its FY26 output and cost guidance unchanged; copper output +1% to 170,400 tonnes, premium iron ore -2% to 15.2mln tonnes, De Beers diamond production +17% to 7.1mln carats; it said that the diamond markets remain weak. Air Liquide (AI FP) Q1 revenue +1.9% Y/Y (exp. 2.3%) on a comparable basis to EUR 6.79bln (exp. 6.92bln); growth was boosted by gas and services business performance; it backed its FY outlook. Boliden (BOL SS) Q1 adj. operating profit of SEK 4.4bln (exp. 4.06bln), as it benefited from record-high gold prices, boosting precious-metals by-product revenue; it reiterated its FY26 investment plans. In industrials, Nexans (NEX FP) Q1 standard sales +1.3% Y/Y at EUR 1.5bln, organic growth was 0.1%; its electrification businesses grew 4.9% organically; it confirmed FY26 guidance. It also announced the acquisition of Republic Wire for EUR 680mln; deal expected to close in Q3. PostNL (PNL NA) Q1 revenue of EUR 781mln (vs 782mln Y/Y), E-commerce revenue fell to EUR 451mln (from EUR 473mln), platforms revenue rose to EUR 185mln (from EUR 181mln); confirmed its FY26 outlook. Rolls-Royce (RR/ LN) is strengthening its China presence through Beijing Aero Engine Services, an engine maintenance JV with Air China that became operational in December, SCMP reports. In communications, WPP (WPP LN) reported Q1 revenue less pass-through costs of GBP 2.26bln (exp. 2.23bln), down 6.7% LFL; it said Middle East events were causing near-term uncertainty, but affirmed its outlook.

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In Europe, the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey and Euro Area Bank Lending Survey are due. In North America, US Conference Board consumer confidence (exp. 91, prev. 91.8), weekly ADP employment figures (prev. 54.75K average per week), S&P/Case-Shiller home prices (exp. 1.1% Y/Y, prev. 1.2%) and FHFA house price index (prev. 1.6% Y/Y), Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed gauges. Brazil mid-month CPI data for April is seen at 4.48% Y/Y (from 3.9%).
• EVENTS: UK PM Starmer faces a Commons vote on whether the Privileges Committee should investigate claims he misled MPs over Lord Mandelson’s vetting as UK ambassador to the US.
• CENTRAL BANKS: ECB President Lagarde is due to speak, but is not expected to comment on policy given the central bank is in a blackout ahead of Thursday’s confab. Hungary’s central bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.25%, with policymakers awaiting government plans on tackling a bloated budget and gaining access to frozen EU funds after a post-election market rally.
• SUPPLY: The US sells USD 44bln of 7yr notes, and USD 30bln of 2yr FRNs; the Netherlands sells EUR 1.0-1.5bln of 2042 debt; UK tenders GBP 1bln of 2028 gilts, and GBP 1.25bln of 2032 gilts.
• ENERGY: After hours, API publishes its gauge of weekly energy inventories.
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting results today includes: Visa (V), Coca-Cola (KO), T-Mobile (TMUS), Corning (GLW), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Welltower (WELL), S&P Global (SPGI), Seagate Technology (STX), Starbucks (SBUX), Spotify (SPOT), Waste Management (WM), UPS (UPS), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), American Tower (AMT), Robinhood (HOOD), Hilton (HLT), Ecolab (ECL), Mondelez (MDLZ), General Motors (GM), PACCAR (PCAR), Bloom Energy (BE), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), ONEOK (OKE), Sysco (SYY), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Edison (EIX), PPG (PPG), Fair Isaac (FICO), Omnicom (OMC), Incyte (INCY), Centene (CNC), CoStar (CSGP), Pentair (PNR).