EUROPEAN OPEN: NOVN SW to buy Excellergy for up to USD 2bln; RI FP confirms BF.B merger talks; MC FP & Sephora face Italy marketing probe; FDA approves NOVOB DC’s Awiqli; SAN SM reaffirms targets, raises 2025 cash dividend

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened flat/slightly higher after US President Trump extended the deadline for Iran to make a deal until 6th April; on the week futures for both the narrow Euro Stoxx 50 and broader Stoxx 600 remain on course for gains, but have not reversed last week’s losses. Overnight, APAC stocks were cautious but off worst levels, pressured by the US tech and communications-led sell-off on Wall Street, while investors also digested Trump’s 10-day extension to the Strait of Hormuz deadline. On the geopolitical front, Trump said talks with Tehran were going very well and delayed possible strikes on Iran’s energy plants, although Iranian officials described the US proposals as unfair. The WSJ added that Iran had not requested the 10-day pause on strikes, according to mediators, and had yet to provide a ‘final response’ to the 15-point plan to end the war, despite Trump suggesting the extension came at Iran’s request. Elsewhere, the Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to provide Trump with more military options, while Axios cited a senior US defence official who expects a decision on the deployment to come next week. Crude initially fell after Trump paused attacks on Iran’s energy sector and signalled ongoing talks, but prices later turned higher, with Brent around USD 103/bbl and WTI near USD 95/bbl as we start the European day; analysts at Macquarie have warned that oil prices could hit a record USD 200/bbl if the war lasts until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Gold rose after Trump extended the Iran deadline, with bullion rebounding to around USD 4,450/oz after Thursday’s near 3% decline. Copper is on track for its first weekly gain this month, supported by hopes that US efforts to end the Middle East war may avert a broader hit to global growth, though uncertainty over negotiations and potential troop deployments remains. On the data front, France’s 2025 budget deficit narrowed to 5.1% of GDP (from 5.8% in 2024), beating the government’s 5.4% target, and giving Paris greater room to respond as the Iran war complicates efforts to repair public finances. In the UK, retail sales fell -0.4% M/M in February (exp. -0.8%), while the annual rate slowed to 2.5% Y/Y from 4.5%; ex-fuel sales also fell 0.4% M/M (exp. -0.8%), with the ex-fuel annual rate at 3.4% Y/Y (exp. 2.9%); analysts noted the monthly reading remained negative and did not yet fully capture the Middle East impact. Elsewhere, GfK said Britons are saving more and cutting back on major purchases amid the economic fallout from the Iran conflict, with the major purchase gauge falling to -18 in March (from -14), the lowest since April 2025, while headline consumer confidence eased to -21 (from -19; exp. -24). Spain's prelim inflation data for March showed a rise of +1.0% M/M (exp. 1.2%), with the annual rate climbing to 3.3% Y/Y (exp. 2.4%, prev. 2.3%), though the annual core rate was unchanged at 2.7% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.7%).
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In consumer sectors, Pernod Ricard (RI FP) confirmed discussions on a potential business combination with Brown-Forman (BF.B) that would resemble a merger of equals, but said there is no assurance an agreement will be reached. Italy’s antitrust authority launched an investigation into LVMH (MC FP) and Sephora over whether cosmetics were covertly marketed through young micro-influencers and not clearly identified as unsuitable for children and adolescents. The UK regulator CMA said five firms are under investigation in its work on fake reviews: Autotrader (AUTO LN), Feefo, Dignity, Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY NA) and Pasta Evangelists. Of note for automakers, Chinese automakers including BYD (BYDDY) and Zhejiang Leapmotor regained momentum in Europe in February, with hybrid registration share rising to 16% (from 15%) and fully electric share to 14% (from 12%), according to Dataforce. In healthcare, Novartis (NOVN SW) agreed to acquire Excellergy for up to USD 2bln in upfront and milestone payments, expanding its allergy business with next-generation anti-IgE innovation; closing is expected in H2 2026. The FDA approved Novo Nordisk’s (NOVOB DC) Awiqli 700 units/mL for adults with type 2 diabetes as the first once-weekly long-acting basal insulin, based on the ONWARDS phase 3a programme in about 2,680 adults. In financials, Santander (SAN SM) said it made a strong start to 2026, reaffirmed all targets, expects profit to rise Y/Y, while raising its 2025 total cash dividend +14% to EUR 0.24/shr. In industrials, Senior (SNR LN) announced an extension to the PUSU deadline related to Advent’s 272p/shr bid. In tech, Reuters reported that two senior Trump administration officials said SMIC (SMICY) has supplied chipmaking tools to Iran’s military for about a year and likely provided technical training, with no sign shipments had stopped. Elsewhere, Chinese researchers said a silicon quantum chip completed a full set of error-detecting logical operations for the first time and was used to calculate the lowest-energy state of a water molecule. In notable broker updates, BPER Banca (BPE IM) was initiated with a Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Monte dei Paschi (BMPS IM) was initiated with Buy at Goldman Sachs; Electrolux (ELUXB SS) was initiated with Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Genmab (GMAB DC) was initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; Beiersdorf (BEI GY) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs; Banco BPM (BAMI IM) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs; Beiersdorf (BEI GY) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs; Barry Callebaut (BARN SW) was downgraded at Barclays; Givaudan (GIVN SW) was downgraded at Barclays; Elisa (ELISA FH) was downgraded at JPMorgan; Intesa (ISP IM) was upgraded at Goldman Sachs; DNB (DNB NO) was upgraded at Danske Bank.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: Secretary of State Rubio is meeting G7 counterparts in France amid allied scepticism over the Iran war and after President Trump again criticised NATO countries for not assisting. Rubio said countries should be grateful the US is confronting the threat and called for support on Strait of Hormuz security; France and other allies have voiced concern over the conflict and Washington’s approach. Today’s economic data releases includes: ECB consumer inflation expectations for February; US wholesale inventories for February; University of Michigan’s final sentiment indices for March (prelim data showed sentiment easing to 55.5 from 56.6 in February; conditions at 57.8 from 56.6; expectations at 54.1 from 56.6; 1yr inflation expectations unchanged at 3.4%; 5yr inflation expectations at 3.2% from 3.3%). In energy, Baker Hughes will publish its weekly rig count data. On today’s speakers’ slate, Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter, neutral; text and Q&A expected) will speak on the economic outlook; Fed’s Paulson (voter, dove; text and Q&A expected) will speak on the economic outlook; Daly (2027 voter, dove) will speak on the economic outlook; ECB’s Schnabel (hawk) give a lecture in Switzerland. On the supply docket, Italy will sell EUR 6.5-8.5bln of 2031, 2036 and 2035 debt. Notable corporates due to report today include: Carnival (CCL). Today’s afterhours CRA slate includes potential reviews by Fitch on Switzerland (AAA); Moody’s on Italy (Baa2) and Spain (A3); Scope on the EU (AAA).