EUROPEAN OPEN: NOVOB DC deal-hunting, expects 2026 headwinds; US approves NVDA H200 sales to China; Netherlands weighs Nexperia probe; Ahead, key data, central bank speak, potential SCOTUS tariff update

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities have opened in the green. APAC equities were mostly higher, with the Nikkei 225 outperforming amid increased traction around reports that PM Takaichi is set to dissolve the Lower House and call a snap election in mid-February to capitalise on healthy poll numbers. Chinese stocks came under pressure after authorities raised the minimum margin requirement for financing share purchases to 100% from 80%. The rule, announced by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, applies to Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing markets and aims to tighten risk controls. Data showed China’s trade surplus reached a record USD 1.2tln in 2025, despite US tariffs, as exporters shifted toward Southeast Asia and Europe. Overall exports rose +6.6% Y/Y in December (exp. +3.1%), the fastest pace in three months. Oil steadied after its biggest four-day rise in over six months as US officials prepared to discuss Iran at a White House meeting; President Trump warned the US would take “very strong action” if Iran executes protesters, amid reports more than 2,400 demonstrators have been killed and over 18,434 arrested. Brent was near USD 65/bbl, while WTI was near USD 61. Oil futures edged lower in APAC hours, which some analysts attributed to a technical correction. Additionally, API weekly inventory data was bearish, reporting larger than expected builds for crude and products. Silver surged above USD 90/oz to fresh highs, while gold traded near its all-time high, supported by geopolitical tensions after President Trump told Iranian protesters that “help is on its way.” Analysts cited persistent uncertainty boosting safe-haven demand. Base metals extended their strong start to the year, with tin and copper hitting fresh record highs, while nickel, zinc and aluminium also advanced. Bitcoin climbed to a two-month high. The Day Ahead is heavy for data (US retail sales and PPI), Fedspeak, as well as a potential SCOTUS updates on tariffs (no guarantee it will be published today, however), while bank earnings continue, with BAC, WFC and C all set to report.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, the US approved Nvidia (NVDA) selling H200 AI chips to China, subject to sufficient US supply, security assurances and non-military use; it was later reported that China's authorities reportedly told customs agents this week that Nvidia's H200 chips are not allowed to enter China. A Dutch court is weighing whether to open an investigation into chipmaker Nexperia BV, potentially withholding control from Chinese owner Wingtech Technology over alleged improper technology transfers. A probe would extend trustee control, while rejecting it would restore Wingtech’s authority and end the dispute, Bloomberg reports. In healthcare, Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) is seeking new deals to strengthen its obesity portfolio after losing US biotech Metsera to Pfizer (PFE); CEO said the company is open to large or small acquisitions, provided they complement existing assets and offer clear advantages. Elsewhere, CEO expects some headwinds in international operations in 2026, adding that a loss of exclusivity in several markets this year could result in Novo having a difficult year. Orion (ORNBV FH) said annual net sales from its prostate cancer drug Nubeqa, including tablet sales to Bayer (BAYN GY) and royalties, could exceed EUR 1bln in future; for 2026, it forecast net sales of EUR 1.9–2.1bln (exp. 1.95bln) and operating profit of EUR 550–750mln, driven mainly by continued Nubeqa growth. And of note for healthcare names with US exposure, US Obamacare enrolment has fallen by about 1.4mln people from last year as a federal tax credit expired and premiums rose sharply; the decline is smaller than forecast, but experts warned further attrition is likely as average premiums more than double, according to Bloomberg. In energy, BP Plc (BP/ LN) expects USD 4–5bln of impairments in Q4, mainly linked to its energy transition businesses, and flagged weak oil trading, where Q4 upstream production is expected to be broadly flat Q/Q. In financials, several Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) India wealth management bankers have left the firm to join Lighthouse Canton, according to Bloomberg, highlighting continued competition for senior talent in India’s private wealth sector. Prudential (PRU LN) appointed former HSBC (HSBA LN) chairman Douglas Flint as its next chairman, replacing Shriti Vadera; Flint will join the board in March. In notable broker updates, Barclays downgraded Air France (AF FP) and Lufthansa (LHA GY); Goldman Sachs downgraded Maersk (MAERSKB DC) and DHL (DHL GY); Reckitt (RKT LN) was downgraded at RBC; EssilorLuxottica (EL FP) was upgraded at HSBC.

TODAY'S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: In Europe, the ECB will continue to release parts of its economic bulletin, with today's updates focussed on housing , and also the EU's single market. The NBH's meeting minutes from its December confab are due, and the NBP is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.0%. Traders will be looking to potential SCOTUS opinions (10am Eastern/3pm GMT) for any updates on rulings around Trump tariffs; there is no guarantee that it will give an update today, however. The US Day features November retail sales data (seen rising +0.5% M/M), and US PPI (headline seen rising +0.2% M/M, and the core rate by +0.2% M/M). Elsewhere, existing home sales data for December and October's business inventories are set for release. After the release of today's US data, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPnow model, which is currently tracking US growth of +5.1% in Q4. Today's speakers' slate is busy, and includes: Fed's Miran (voter, super dove), Fed's Williams (voter, neutral), Fed's Paulson (voter, neutral), Fed's Kashkari (voter, neutral), Fed's Bostic (2027 voter, hawk); BoE's Taylor (dove) and Ramsden (neutral); ECB's Vice President de Guindos (dovish). In energy, weekly API energy inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a larger than expected build of +5.3mln bbls (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing building by +0.95mln, distillate by +4.3mln bbls (exp. +0.1mln), Gasoline by +8.2mln bbls (exp. +0.2mln); the more widely followed DoE inventory data will be published later today. NOTE: WTI Feb 2026 options are due to expire today. In supply, the UK will sell GBP 4.50bln of 2035 debt, and Germany will sell EUR 1bln of 2052, EUR 1bln of 2056, and EUR 1bln of 2041 debt. US corporate earnings will remain in focus, with BAC, WFC, C set to report metrics in the premarket.
• US RETAIL SALES (13:30GMT/08:30EST) - US retail sales are seen rising +0.5% M/M in November (prev. 0.0%), with core rate seen rising to 0.4% M/M (prev. 0.4%), and the control group is also seen rising by +0.4% M/M (prev. 0.8%). Bank of Americaʼs monthly consumer checkpoint data showed seasonally adjusted spending growth per household was flat M/M, while the annual rate of total credit and debit card spending per household slowed to 1.3% Y/Y, which the bank said points to solid growth but at a less robust pace than in October. Holiday item spending was strong in October and November but slowed around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, according to the data, suggesting some consumers shopped earlier for deals. The bank said consumer finances appear healthy, with little reliance on credit or buy now, pay later, although card data showed a small but rising BNPL share. It added that large gaps persist between higher- and lower-income households in spending and wage growth, with higher-income households lifting spending by 2.6% Y/Y, while lower-income groups lagged with a gain of just 0.6% Y/Y. After-tax wage growth edged up to 4% Y/Y for higher-income households and to 1.4% Y/Y for lower-income households.