EUROPEAN OPEN: NVDA gains on FY28 growth outlook; CRM surges on earnings, AI growth, Anthropic stake; DHER GY raises revenue and GMV view; RI FP posts third annual sales decline; PRU LN expands buyback, raises dividend

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities opened mixed on Thursday; tech leads after Nvidia earnings, while autos lag. Overnight, US equity futures rose as Nvidia’s strong sales outlook supported AI optimism (see below for Nvidia recap). APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with most indices in the green, after the flat performance stateside, where markets digested the firmer-than-expected headline PCE data and Nvidia earnings.
• Treasuries are around unchanged, though rate hike expectations have ticked up slightly; the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike is currently around 36% (vs 31% last week) following PCE data out on Wednesday, where the headline rate topped expectations, and ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which gets underway today (Chair Warsh is due to speak on Friday). However, gold has rebounded above USD 4,600/oz, with bullion having already gained around 15% this month.
• Crude futures are lower for a fourth straight day, as traders weighed Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz flows against escalating Russia-Ukraine supply risks; Brent trades near USD 86/bbl, while WTI was near USD 81.50/bbl.
• In data, China industrial profits rose 11.2% Y/Y in July, slowing from 15.1% in June, while January-July growth eased to 17.6% (from 18.7% in H1); electronics manufacturing profits jumped 110%, while fibre optics and optical cable manufacturing surged 468.4%, contrasting with continued weakness in consumer-facing and property-related sectors.
• German GfK consumer confidence rose to -26.6 in September (exp. -29.6, prev. -29.4); income expectations improved to 1.7 (from -14.5), and economic expectations to -3.9 (from -6.3), while willingness to buy remained subdued at -9.8.
• In central banks, the BoK raised its benchmark rate by 25bps to 3.00%, the second consecutive hike, with six of seven monetary policy committee members voting in favour; raised 2026 GDP growth view to 3.3% (from 2.6%), raised core inflation view, seen at 2.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
• BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said the central bank will debate the pace and timing of rate hikes at each meeting to stabilise underlying inflation around 2%. Himino added that weak GDP data was somewhat worrying but likely reflected technical factors, and said the BoJ could accelerate hikes if financial conditions remain too loose.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• NVIDIA (NVDA) RECAP - Nvidia shares initially slipped as much as 3% on its earnings release, after the company noted that its commitments have more than doubled due to memory procurement costs, and it saw Q3 margins falling below Q2 levels; however, shares ultimately finished extended US trading with gains of over 5%, after execs forecast stronger-than-expected revenue growth in FY28, supported by broadening AI demand, accelerating adoption of its next-generation processors and expanded cloud partnerships, despite the ongoing supply constraints. The Information citing sources also reported that Nvidia has agreed to acquire the open-source AI models and datasets platform Hugging Face for USD 12.9bln. It reported Q2 adj. EPS of 2.22 (exp. 2.09), Q2 revenue USD 96.2bln (exp. 92.3bln). Data centre revenue USD 89.0bln (exp. 85.86bln), hyperscale revenue USD 48.71bln (exp. 43.55bln), compute and networking revenue USD 88.30bln (exp. 84.69bln), edge computing revenue USD 7.20bln (exp. 6.61bln). Its commitments rose to USD 279bln in Q2 (from USD 119bln), primarily due to memory procurement. Nvidia sold a small number of H200 AI chips to Chinese customers in the quarter, representing less than 1% of data centre revenue; sales remained below the amount permitted under a US licence because of objections from Beijing, while Nvidia recorded a USD 400mln charge for excess H200 inventory. CEO Huang said AI has reached an inflection point, demand is accelerating and Vera Rubin is now in full production. Nvidia returned approximately USD 26.0bln to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, and had approximately USD 99.0bln remaining under its repurchase authorisation. Sees Q3 revenue between USD 105.84-110.16bln (exp. 104.9bln), sees Q3 adj. gross margin between 73.5-74.5% (vs 75% in Q2), Q3 adj. operating expenses about USD 9.0bln (exp. 8.97bln), with no China data centre compute revenue assumed in the outlook. Nvidia also expects FY28 revenue growth of about 70%; it noted that memory shortages remain a constraint on growth.
• TECH: Of note for sector peer SAP (SAP GY), Salesforce (CRM) shares rose by over 14% in extended US trading after quarterly earnings beat expectations, guidance was stronger than forecast, and AI-related growth accelerated, helped by a large gain on its Anthropic investments. CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) shares rose by almost 10% in afterhours trading, following a quarterly beat, while FY guidance was raised, and recurring revenue growth remained strong, supported by rising demand for AI-related cybersecurity. HP Inc. (HPQ) shares fell almost 9% in extended US trading after declining PC shipments and weaker margins from rising memory and commodity costs overshadowed strong revenue growth and a higher profit outlook.
• HEALTHCARE: AstraZeneca (AZN LN) and Amgen (AMGN) said Tezspire demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements across co-primary and key secondary endpoints at week 24 in the Phase 3 CROSSING trial for patients with eosinophilic oesophagitis. Roche (ROP SW) received FDA approval for companion diagnostic tests to identify patients with HER2-positive metastatic gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma who are eligible for ZIIHERA.
• CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Delivery Hero (DHER GY) Q2 revenue EUR 4.02bln (exp. 3.84bln), Q2 GMV EUR 13.21bln (exp. 12.77bln; prev. 12.24bln); raised FY26 guidance, now sees LFL revenue growth of 17-19% (prev. saw 14-16%), and GMV growth of 9-11% (prev. saw 8-10%). Stellantis (STLAM IM) CEO said the company saw improvements across all key metrics in H1, and remains on a track for a gradual and progressive recovery.
• CONSUMER STAPLES: Pernod Ricard (RI FP) FY26 revenue EUR 9.40bln (exp. 9.44bln), organic sales -3.9% (exp. -3.7%), marking a third consecutive annual decline, amid weakness in the US and China; recurring operating profits -5.2% (exp. -5.9%), net profit EUR 1.24bln (prev. 1.67bln); expects 2027-2029 organic sales growth near the bottom of its 3-6% guidance range due to persistent US weakness.
• FINANCIALS: HSBC (HSBA LN) is considering combining its Singapore wholesale, retail and private banking operations under one entity to simplify its structure, as the bank continues a broader restructuring drive to reduce costs. Prudential (PRU LN) H1 2026 adj. net profit USD 1.52bln (from USD 1.37bln), operating profit USD 1.81bln (from USD 1.64bln), new business profit USD 1.38bln (from USD 1.26bln); announced an additional USD 300mln share buyback, and raised its interim dividend +15% Y/Y to USD 0.0888/shr.
• INDUSTRIALS: Eiffage (FGR FP) H1 revenue EUR 12.2bln (exp. 12.11bln), adj. operating income EUR 1.02bln (exp. 1.04bln); order book stood at EUR 31.5bln (prev. 2.5bln Y/Y); confirmed its FY26 outlook. Of note for Kuehne+Nagel (KNIN SW), US authorities are investigating Singapore-based Apex Logistics over suspected shipments of Nvidia (NVDA)-powered Super Micro (SMCI) systems to China in breach of export controls; Apex and parent Kuehne+Nagel (KNIN SW) said the company is cooperating.
• MATERIALS: Boliden (BOL SS) agreed to acquire Votorantim’s 64.68% stake in Nexa Resources for implied consideration of USD 1.31bln; Votorantim will receive newly issued Boliden shares representing about 7% of the company; deal expected to close in Q1 2027, and be immediately accretive to EPS.
• EX-DIVS: Going ex-dividend today: Glencore (GLEN LN), Autotrader (AUTO LN), Games Workshop (GAW LN), Croda (CRDA LN), Allianz Witan (ALW LN), LondonMetric (LMP LN).
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) downgraded at Deutsche Bank; Deutsche Telekom (DTE GY) downgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux; Givaudan (GIVN SW) downgraded at Morgan Stanley; Amundi (AMUN FP) downgraded at ESN; Admiral Group (ADM LN) downgraded at Berenberg; FLSmidth (FLS DC) downgraded at Danske Bank. Vestas (VWS DC) upgraded at Berenberg; Bilfinger (GBF GY) upgraded at UBS; Computacenter (CCC LN) upgraded at Peel Hunt. Sandvik (SAND SS) initiated with a Hold rating at Berenberg; Convatec (CTEC LN) initiated with a Buy rating at Kepler Cheuvreux; Epiroc (EPIA SS) initiated with Hold rating at Berenberg.

DAY AHEAD:

• CENTRAL BANKS: The Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium opens (27-29th August). ECB publishes July meeting minutes.
• DATA: In Europe, Eurozone money supply (prev. 3.3% Y/Y), loans to companies (prev. 4.0% Y/Y) and households (prev. 3.0% Y/Y). In North America, US advance goods trade balance (prev. USD -101.4bln); weekly initial jobless claims (exp. 210K, prev. 206K) and continuing claims (exp. 1,790K, prev. 1,799K); wholesale inventories advance (prev. 0.2% M/M); Kansas City Fed manufacturing (prev. 17) and composite (prev. 9). In Canada, Q2 current account (prev. CAD -7.2bln).
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today include Marvell Technology (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Dollar General (DG), Affirm (AFRM), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Best Buy (BBY), Hormel Foods (HRL), Gap (GAP).
• SUPPLY: US sells USD 44bln of 7-year notes.
• ENERGY: EIA reports weekly natural gas stocks change, with the street looking for a build of 19BCF (prev. 16BCF).