EUROPEAN OPEN: NWG LN profit beats, aims for buyback in H1; OR FP tops sales estimates, in line profits; EL FP to buyback 5mln shares; NESN SW increases infant formula production; US CPI ahead

• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, Applied Materials (AMAT) shares jumped 12.4% in extended trading after it reported better-than-expected quarterly results and issued guidance well above market forecasts, supported by accelerating AI-driven investment and record segment revenues. OpenAI told US lawmakers that Chinese startup DeepSeek is attempting to replicate its models through distillation, Reuters reports citing a memo; OpenAI alleged DeepSeek employees bypassed access restrictions and used third-party routers to obtain model outputs programmatically. Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to lease a 200-megawatt data centre and substation in Nevada, funded partly by a USD 3.8bln junk-bond sale. On HBM4 Memory, TrendForce said Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (HXSCL) and Micron (MU) are in final validation stages for HBM4, with completion expected by Q2, positioning them to supply Nvidia’s (NVDA) Rubin platform; Samsung is projected to secure certification first. Apple (AAPL) was cleared by a jury in Texas of infringing five 4G/LTE patents in a 2019 lawsuit brought by Optis Wireless, Electrek reports; a separate Optis case against Apple remains ongoing in the UK. Capgemini (CAP FP) reported FY25 revenue of EUR 22.47bln (exp. 22.3bln), rising 3.4% (vs guidance for +2-2.5%), with Q4 sales rising 10.6% following the consolidation of WNS and Clou4C; AI-related bookings exceeded 10% of total. Sees 2026 revenue growth of 6.5-8.5%. In communications, Ubisoft (UBI FP) Q3 net bookings +12% Y/Y, driven by overperformance of the Assassin’s Creed franchise; the results follow the company’s restructuring announced in January. Eutelsat (ETL FP) H1 revenue was above analyst estimates, and it reduced operating losses by 85%, as net debt was cut by more than half following a EUR 1.5bln state-led rescue. In industrials, Safran (SAF FP) raised its 2028 outlook citing strong civil engines aftermarket activity and growing defence demand; 2025 adj. recurring operating income +26% Y/Y on 15% higher adjusted revenue; will propose a 16% increase in its dividend to EUR 3.35/shr. BAE Systems (BA/ LN) was awarded a USD 145mln ceiling, and a USD 66.67mln delivery order, from the US Air Force for Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems weapon systems. In financials, NatWest (NWG LN) FY25 pretax operating profit of GBP 7.7bln (exp. 7.5bln), and revenue of GBP 4.3bln (vs 3.8bln Y/Y); NII was GBP 3.4bln (exp. 3.3bln); it now targets return on tangible equity of more than 18% in 2028 (prev. saw over 15% in 2027), and intends to start a GBP 750mln share buyback programme in H1 of 2026. In consumer sectors, L'Oreal (OR FP) is confident of further revenue and earnings gains as it seeks to strengthen its global position; it reported Q4 sales of EUR 11.25bln (exp. 11.1bln) last year, and operating profit of EUR 8.9bln (exp. 8.9bln); CEO said the group is optimistic about the market outlook, and confident it will continue to outperform. Nestle (NESN SW) is increasing infant formula production after a contamination crisis prompted it, Danone (BN FP) and Groupe Lactalis to recall hundreds of batches; five Nestle factories in France, Spain, Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands are operating 24 hours a day. DraftKings (DKNG) shares fell over 15% in US afterhours trading following a 2026 revenue and profit forecast that came in below estimates, as it plans heavy investment to expand into prediction markets. Rivian (RIVN) shares surged 15% in extended trading after it beat Q4 expectations and guided to a significant increase in vehicle deliveries this year, driven by the upcoming launch of its R2 model despite ongoing losses. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) board appointed John Chidsey as president and CEO, succeeding Harry Sommer, effective immediately; reaffirmed its outlooks for FY adj. EPS, and adj. EBITDA. In materials, Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) reported quarterly core profit above market expectations, supported by strong primary aluminium earnings and higher metal prices, which offset weaker downstream markets. In healthcare, Essilor Luxottica (EL FP) announced the launch of a share buyback programme of up to 5mln shares; it said the programme reflects confidence in its value creation and long-term prospects. In notable broker updates, Dassault Systemes (DSY FP) was downgraded at Alpha Value; Volvo (VOLVB SS) downgraded at RBC.

TODAY'S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: In Europe, a second look at Q4 GDP is due, with the street expecting an unrevised 0.3% Q/Q, though the annual measure is expected to be revised down to 1.3% Y/Y from 1.4%. Eurozone prelim employment change is expected at 0.6% Y/Y (unch) and 0.1% W/W (prev. 0.2%). The highlight of the US day is CPI data for January, where the headline is expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and core rising at a rate of 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%) (see below for preview). In energy, Baker Hughes will release weekly rig count data in the afternoon. Today's speakers' slate includes ECB VP de Guindos, and BoE chief economist Pill. Notable US corporate earnings due today include Moderna (MRNA) and Wendy's (WEN).
• PREVIEW - US CPI (13:30GMT/08:30EST) - Note: the January consumer price report, originally scheduled for 11th February, was pushed back to 13th February at 08:30EST/13:30GMT because of the partial US government shutdown. The headline is expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and core rising at a rate of 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%). While the Fedʼs January statement upgraded its economic assessment by replacing “economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace” with “expanding at a solid pace”, “job gains have slowed this year” with “job gains have remained low”, and “the unemployment rate has edged up” with it having “shown some signs of stabilisation”, it said “inflation remains somewhat elevated”, relatively unchanged from its prior view that “inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated”. At his post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell said inflation had made limited net progress over the past year, with core PCE showing little improvement. He said most of the overshoot stemmed from goods prices, largely driven by tariffs, which he characterised as a one-off rather than demand-led effect. Powell noted that many tariff effects had already passed through the economy and expects goods and tariff-related inflation to peak around mid-year. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, but recent outcomes have been broadly in line with expectations. He added that short-term market-based inflation expectations have fully retraced, while longer-term measures signal confidence in a return to the Fedʼs 2% target. Powell said incoming data point to clearer improvement in the outlook, adding that confirmation that tariff effects are fading would support policy loosening. Some analysts have recently highlighted Truflationʼs inflation measure, which suggests price pressures are easing. Pantheon Macroeconomics, however, argues that the sharp fall in Truflationʼs daily measure overstates disinflation, noting that it is driven largely by new rents and mortgage interest costs that respond quickly to market shifts, while official CPI uses broader, lagged shelter measures, implying a much more gradual decline. Pantheon sees Truflation as useful for niche components, but not a reliable guide to headline inflation. UBS said easing inflation should keep the Fed on track for rate cuts despite strong jobs data, forecasting two 25bps reductions in June and September, while FOMC projections indicate one additional cut this year. Following the labour report, markets reduced expected easing to about 50bps from 60bps, and now price the first cut in July rather than June. JPMorgan’s US Market Intelligence desk said weaker retail sales and high-frequency indicators have increased the importance of the CPI release, adding that a hawkish CPI print is more likely than a dovish outcome, but does not expect a strong market reaction to a stagflationary reading.