EUROPEAN OPEN: PUB FP to buy RAMP in USD 2.2bln deal; AAL LN to sell its steelmaking coal business for up to USD 3.88bln; RYA ID confirms guidance; Elliott builds large stake in SRT GY; Tata Electronics & ASML NA sign MoU

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities have opened lower as inflation concerns continued to weigh on sentiment, with higher energy prices and limited US-Iran progress driving a broader selloff in global bonds.
• US Treasuries started the week under pressure, with 30yr yields rising to the highest since October 2023. Japan’s 5yr bond auction saw weaker demand, while JGBs also sold off, sending yields to record highs, as higher oil prices added to inflation concerns, possible tighter policy expectations and worries over Japan’s fiscal position. PM Takaichi asked the MoF to consider funding options, including a supplementary budget, to respond to rising commodity prices from the Middle East conflict, reversing her earlier stance that extra spending was unnecessary.
• China’s April activity data pointed to a slowdown, with YTD fixed-asset investment down 1.6% Y/Y, retail sales up 0.2% and industrial production growth slowing to 4.1%, amid trade-in policy headwinds, weaker gold sales, soft domestic demand, geopolitical uncertainty and property weakness. New-home price declines eased, with 70-city prices down 0.2% M/M.
• Oil rose for a third day as President Trump renewed pressure on Iran to agree a deal ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz; Brent is around USD 111/bbl after rising roughly 8% last week, with analysts noting the US and Iran still remain far apart.
• Gold fell over 1% overnight before recovering to around USD 4,535/oz, as higher oil prices lifted rate-hike expectations, while copper extended losses as inflation concerns and softer China data weighed on industrial commodities.
• Bitcoin fell to its lowest since early May as US-Iran war risks prompted position cuts, with around USD 550mln in bullish Bitcoin positions unwound overnight.
• In trade, the White House highlighted deals made with China during President Trump’s trip last week, confirming a US-China board for trade and investment, rare-earth commitments, 200 Boeing aircraft purchases and at least USD 17bln/year of US agricultural purchases in 2026-2028. Elsewhere, the UK and GCC states are close to finalising a free trade agreement covering Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.
• Domestically, Chancellor Reeves will reportedly scrap a planned fuel duty hike this week, according to The Sun. In data, Rightmove said UK house prices rose 1.2% M/M in May, paring the annual decline to -0.3% Y/Y. Elsewhere, Bloomberg notes that hedge funds and asset managers increased bearish sterling option bets after Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham secured a potential path to challenge for UK prime minister.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• TECH: TrendForce said MLCC prices are poised to rebound as AI-chip demand tightens high-end supply and squeezes consumer-grade availability. Tata Electronics and ASML (ASML NA) signed an MoU to advance India’s semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem; ASML will support the establishment and ramp-up of Tata’s planned 300mm semiconductor fab in Gujarat.
• COMMUNICATIONS: Publicis (PUB FP) agreed to buy LiveRamp (RAMP) in an all-cash USD 2.2bln deal; the USD 38.50/shr offer is almost 30% above LiveRamp’s Friday close. Publicis said the acquisition will deepen its AI marketing push and raised headline EPS growth guidance for 2027 and 2028. Elsewhere, Publicis affirmed 2026 guidance, and lifted its 2027 and 2028 growth views.
• INDUSTRIALS: Ryanair (RYA ID) FY25/26 net income EUR 2.26bln (exp. 2.17bln), revenue EUR 15.5bln (exp. 15.5bln); customers rose to 208.4mln (from 200.2mln), and it sees FY27 customers at 216mln; the airline said summer fuel supply should not be an issue, though July-September pricing is now broadly flat.
• MATERIALS: Anglo American (AAL LN) agreed to sell its steelmaking coal business for up to USD 3.88bln in cash, and will use proceeds to reduce net debt; separately, Anglo said it does not currently expect any immediate production impact from the Collahuasi environmental permit issue in Chile.
• ENERGY: BP (BP/ LN) reportedly plans to dismantle its pipeline gas trading team and focus on expanding LNG trading; about 20 pipeline gas staff will be laid off, with remaining employees moved into BP’s LNG book; follows Europe’s move away from Russian pipeline gas towards LNG since 2022. France has not ruled out an exceptional tax on TotalEnergies (TTE FP); Budget Minister said there was “no taboo” over redistributing excess profits from higher oil prices, though the government currently prefers a fuel-price cap; no final decision had been made yet. Santos (SSLZY) announced first oil from Pikka phase 1 on Alaska’s North Slope; production has started during commissioning and is expected to ramp to 20K bbl/day over coming weeks, then remain near that level until water injection begins. Santos operates the project with a 51% stake, while Repsol (REP SM) holds 49%.
• CONSUMER: Mercedes-Benz (MBG GY) CEO Kallenius said the company would be willing to enter defence production if it made “business sense”, WSJ reports. France wants Stellantis (STLAM IM) and Renault (RNO FP) to favour local parts suppliers to protect jobs and retain regional know-how as Europe’s automakers deepen ties with Chinese manufacturers. Swatch (UHR SW) closed UK stores after hundreds queued to buy its Royal Pop pocket watch collaboration with Audemars Piguet; The GBP 335 watches have already appeared online for resale at up to GBP 16K.
• FINANCIALS: Prudential (PRU LN) agreed to buy a 75% stake in Bharti Life Insurance for INR 35bln, giving it access to India’s uninsured middle class. Standard Chartered (STAN LN) appointed Manus Costello as CFO, and Tanuj Kapilashrami is promoted to COO.
• HEALTHCARE: Of note for AstraZeneca (AZN LN), Enhertu received FDA approval for two new HER2-positive early breast cancer indications. Novartis (NOVN SW) announced PSMAddition data showing Pluvicto plus standard of care improved PSA responses vs standard of care alone in PSMA-positive mHSPC. Roche’s (ROP SW) Genentech has received US FDA approval for Tecentriq and Tecentriq Hybreza Elliott has built a sizeable stake in Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) and a large stake in Sartorius (SRT GY), the German lab-equipment supplier in which Bio-Rad has a strategic investment.
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Burberry (BRBY LN) upgraded at Morgan Stanley; Shell (SHEL LN) upgraded at HSBC; Repsol (REP SM) upgraded at HSBC; Tate & Lyle (TATE LN) downgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux; Commerzbank (CBK GY) downgraded at Keefe Bruyette.

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: Canadian markets closed for Victoria Day.
• DATA: US NAHB Housing Market Index (prev. 34), and net long-term TIC flows (prev. USD 58.6bln) are due.
• CENTRAL BANKS: BoE’s Greene (hawkish) and Mann (hawk) both appear on panels. Norges Bank’s Bech-Moan speaks at the Housing Conference. Riksbank’s Bunge speaks on AI and monetary policy.
• SUPPLY: EU to sell EUR 7bln across 2029, 2037 and 2051; UK BoE conducts a GBP 825mln short-maturity gilt sale.
• WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include NVDA earnings, FOMC Minutes, UK, Canadian, Japanese and NZ inflation. Other notable earnings this week include: Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Analog Devices (ADI), TJX (TJX), Deere (DE), Intuit (INTU), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), Ross Stores (ROST), Vertiv (VRT), Workday (WDAY), Ralph Lauren (RL), Copart (CPRT), Keysight (KEYS), NIO (NIO), Zoom (ZM), Toll Brothers (TOL), Hasbro (HAS), Deckers (DECK), Nordson (NDSN), Take-Two (TTWO), VF Corp. (VFC), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Booz Allen (BAH).
• Click here for Newsquawk's week ahead briefing.
• Click here for weekly US earnings estimates.