EUROPEAN OPEN: RHM GY misses estimates, guides lower; P911 GY misses expectations, and issues soft outlook; ITX SM tops Q4 EBIT expectations, will increase CapEx; BMPS IM-MB IM approve merger plan; G7 leaders call, US CPI ahead

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities are starting in the red, despite APAC stocks overnight firming, shrugging off a lacklustre lead from Wall Street, as oil prices eased on reports that the IEA proposed its largest ever crude reserve release to address surging energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Brent prices are still below sub USD 90/bbl, though saw some upticks in recent trade after the UKMTO noted reports of an incident 50nm north-west of Dubai, with a bulk carrier hit by an unknown projectile. The DXY trades around flat. Gold prices rose above USD 5,200/oz, while aluminium rose above USD 3,400/ton as traders assessed how long the Iran war could disrupt trade flows, where production in the Middle East accounts for about 9% of global output. In premarket trade, ECB speak has tilted hawkish, with ECB’s Nagel said the ECB will act decisively if an energy spike feeds into durably higher inflation, adding that the risk of higher inflation has risen, and the economic outlook has deteriorated; ECB’s Kazaks also said that the central bank could act if war raises inflation expectations, while ECB’s Kazimir said a rate hike after the Middle East events may be closer than thought, but there was no reason to act at next week’s meeting; ECB’s Villeroy also said he does not expect a rate hike at next week’s ECB meeting, adding that energy costs are a minor part of consumer spending. Meanwhile, in Australia, NAB and Westpac now expect the RBA to hike rates by 25bps next week, citing persistently strong inflation; their forecasts align with similar calls from others like UBS and Deutsche. In data, final German inflation for February was confirmed at 0.2% M/M and 1.9% Y/Y, as expected. Overnight, Japan PPI rose 2.0% Y/Y in February (exp. 2.1%, prev. 2.3%), the slowest increase since May 2024; PPI fell 0.1% M/M, the first monthly decline in six months. Today’s focus will be on a G7 leaders call at 14:00GMT/10:00EDT; a G7 statement said the group is closely monitoring the energy market and supports in principle the use of strategic oil reserves. US CPI data may be easy to look through given it is for the window before the Middle East conflicts, and energy, metals and crop prices have increased since (see primer below).
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, Oracle (ORCL) shares rose 11.6% in extended trading after it reported earnings and revenue above expectations, and raised its FY revenue guidance as cloud revenue surged. Texas Instruments (TXN) is reportedly preparing to raise prices on a range of semiconductor products from April 2026, according to Digitimes. In consumer sectors, Inditex (ITX SM) is increasing 2026 capex after revenue rose 9% in the five weeks to 8th March 8 (vs 7% growth in FY 2025); it reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 2.05bln (exp. 2.02bln), revenue of EUR 11.6bln (exp. 11.7bln); sales in the November-January quarter increased to EUR 11.69bln (vs EUR 11.2bln Y/Y); it proposed a EUR 1.75 dividend, expects stable 2026 gross margins. Henkel (HEN3 GY) expects 2026 organic sales growth of +1-3% after a +0.9% rise to EUR 20.5bln (exp. 20.6bln) in 2025; it proposed a dividend of EUR 2.07/shr (+1.5% Y/Y); it cited subdued demand and uncertainty linked to the war in Iran, and said the year is expected to start a bit slower. In autos, Porsche AG (P911 GY) reported FY 2025 revenue EUR 36.3bln (exp. 36.8bln), operating profit EUR 413mln (exp. 480mln) and deliveries 279,449 (prev. 310,718 Y/Y); it guided FY revenue between EUR 35-36bln (exp. 36.7bln) and RoS 5.5-7.5% (exp. 7.89%), and proposed a lower dividend of EUR 1.00 ordinary share after seeing EUR 3.9bln in extraordinary charges. China’s vehicle deliveries fell 15% in February to about 1.8mln units, as the phase-out of government subsidies added to the Lunar New Year slowdown, CAAM said; deliveries of electric and plug-in hybrids fell 14% to about 765,000 units. In financials, BMPS (BMPS IM) and Mediobanca (MB IM) approved a merger plan under which Mediobanca will be incorporated into BMPS. In materials, workers at Glencore’s (GLEN LN) Australian copper refinery plan to strike from Friday after failing to reach agreement in a pay dispute; the Australian Workers’ Union said it notified Glencore that employees would walk off unless the company offered higher wages, and said Glencore pays staff almost 15% less than nearby plants run by other companies. Rio Tinto (RIO LN) has secured a USD 1.175bln financing package from four international lenders to support development of the Rincon lithium project in Argentina’s Salta Province. Wacker Chemie (WCH GY) expects low single-digit revenue growth and EBITDA of EUR 550-700mln in 2026 (exp. 614mln); it said market conditions remain challenging, and is pursuing a cost-cutting programme targeting annual savings of more than EUR 300mln, including job cuts mainly in Germany. In energy, Chevron (CVX) and Shell (SHEL LN) are reportedly nearing major oil production deals in Venezuela under new oil legislation. In industrials, Rheinmetall (RHM GY) expects FY26 sales of EUR 14-14.5bln (+40-45% vs the EUR 9.9bln in 2025), with an operating margin of about 19% (vs 18.5%); it said it was fully focusing on defence, and will propose a EUR 11.50 dividend (up from EUR 8.10).

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: G7 leaders will hold an online call on Wednesday (at 14:00GMT/10:00EDT, according to AFP) to discuss the Iran crisis, risks to the global economy, and oil supply; on Tuesday, Japan said the IEA proposed releasing oil reserves, with subsequent reports stating it could be its largest ever release, while France said updated stockpile data will help countries decide how much oil could be released. In energy, OPEC is set to release its monthly oil market report today; on Tuesday, the EIA raised its 2027 US oil production forecast after prices jumped on Middle East supply disruptions, and US crude output is now expected to increase by +220k BPD in 2027 to 13.83mln. API data released afterhours on Tuesday reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise draw of -1.7mln bbls (exp. +1.4mln), Cushing -0.4mln bbls, distillate posted a larger than expected draw of -2.3mln bbls (exp. -0.9mln), while gasoline stocks saw a smaller than expected draw of -1.8mln bbls (exp. -4.5mln); the more widely followed DoE weekly inventory data will be published later today. In data, US CPI data for February is due, but may lack any signalling capacity into the future course of monetary policy, given it reflects prices prior to the Middle East conflicts (See below for primer). In central banks, the NBH will release meeting minutes. The Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove) is due to speak on supervision and regulation, but given the Fed is in blackout, will not comment on monpol; ECB VP de Guindos (dovish) and Schnabel (hawk) are due to speak today; BoE’s Breeden (neutral) will speak on stablecoins. The Treasury Committee will question the Chancellor Reeves on the Spring Statement. In supply, Germany will sell EUR 5bln of Bunds; the UST will sell USD 39bln of 10yr notes.
• PRIMER - US CPI (12:30GMT/08:30EDT) - Analysts have said that the February CPI data may not inform the course for US monetary policy, since it is largely a reflection of prices before the Middle East conflict, which has pushed up energy, metals and crop prices. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.2% M/M in February (prev. 0.2%), with the annual rate seen unchanged at 2.4% Y/Y; core CPI is also seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and the annual rate is seen unchanged at 2.5% Y/Y. Before the conflict, officials were already warning that prices remained above the central bank’s target and, barring any sharp downside in the labour market, policy was generally in a good place to tackle inflation. However, the conflict has since made officials more cautious about endorsing further policy loosening. While policymakers have previously suggested they can look through one-off price jumps, the situation remains fluid and there is little clarity over the duration of the conflict and, by extension, its medium-term impact on energy prices and supply chains. Fed’s Williams (voter, neutral) said the conflict could hit both sides of the Fed’s mandate in opposite directions, but stressed it was too early to know the size or persistence of the shock; he said oil moves of the size seen so far do not usually “fundamentally shift” the US economy, though the Fed must watch asset prices, trade spillovers and uncertainty. Fed’s Kashkari (voter, neutral) has said the war has obscured the monetary policy outlook, and the key question is how long it lasts and how bad it gets. He warned that if headline inflation stays elevated for an extended period, after several years of high inflation, that is a scenario the Fed must watch closely because of the risk to inflation expectations. Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter, neutral) said still-high inflation and firmer recent jobs data may be shifting the Fed’s risk balance back towards inflation, just as the conflict with Iran threatens to push consumer prices higher. He said the expected PCE data “puts pause” on any view that the Fed is done fighting inflation, while acknowledging that nobody yet knows whether the oil move is short-lived or lasting. Accordingly, traders may look through the policy implications of the February CPI report as they seek further clarity. However, analysts expect the events, with inflation already above target, could make it difficult for the Fed to sound dovish at its 18 March confab.