EUROPEAN OPEN: STAN LN profit miss, announces USD 1.5bln buyback; FME GY profits surge; TEF SM core profit accelerates; SAP GY settles with TDC; NOVOB DC downgraded

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities have opened with gains. Overnight, APAC stocks traded mostly higher as participants returned in China and Japan, despite a weak lead from Wall Street driven by trade uncertainty and AI concerns, after a hypothetical report from Citrini Research warned of an AI-driven recession and stock crash, contributing to tech downside, and underscoring AI risk sensitivity. Nikkei 225 rose back above 57k but pared gains amid tech losses and after China’s MOFCOM added 20 Japanese firms to its export control list. Mainland China gained on reopening after 10 days, while the Hang Seng reversed prior gains amid tech and pharmaceutical losses. The PBoC left its 1yr and 5yr loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, marking a tenth straight month on hold, as it balances support for a slowing economy with currency stability. Japan PM Takaichi reportedly told BoJ Governor Ueda that she has reservations about further rate hikes, and was described as stricter than at a previous meeting; following the report, USD/JPY rose; markets currently price an 80% probability of a June rate hike, and have fully priced a 25bps increase by July. Gold fell as traders took profits following a four-day rally of more than 7%, driven by US trade policy uncertainty and Middle East tensions; the pullback came as Chinese traders returned after the Lunar New Year break; analysts cited by the WSJ said that gold is now seen consolidating above USD 5,000/oz, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tariff risks. Base metals rose as China’s markets reopened after the Lunar New Year break, and traders welcomed potentially lower US tariffs; copper climbed towards USD 13,200/ton in London, while aluminium also advanced. Bitcoin fell beneath USD 63k, leaving it down more than 19% in February, and on course for its worst monthly performance since June 2022, when the collapse of TerraUSD triggered failures including Three Arrows Capital and BlockFi. Oil edged higher as investors assessed prospects for an Iranian nuclear deal after President Trump said he preferred diplomacy, but warned of consequences if no agreement is reached; Brent traded below USD 72/bbl and WTI was around USD 66.50/bbl, following a slight decline on Monday. Analysts cited by the WSJ said oil prices are unlikely to break above their current range as markets remain well supplied, with recent gains driven by Middle East risk premiums rather than supply disruption. While today’s data calendar is thin, it features a heavy amount of central bank speak, and President Trump is due to deliver his SOTU address after the close, where he is expected to focus on the economy.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In financials, Standard Chartered (STAN LN) reported FY pretax profit +16% at USD 6.96bln (exp. 7.2bln); non-interest revenue +12.9% to USD 9.71bln (exp. 9.95bln). Wealth income +24%, while global banking income +15%. Announced a USD 1.5bln share buyback, and increased its FY dividend +65%. JPMorgan (JPM) said Q1 investment banking fees and trading revenue are expected to rise by a mid-teens percentage Y/Y. It now sees FY net interest income of about USD 104.5bln (prev. 103bln), and maintained its FY net interest income (ex-CIB) at around USD 95bln; elsewhere, CEO Dimon said he sees parallels to 2005-2007, when aggressive lending preceded the financial crisis, citing intense industry competition, and told investors that, while JPMorgan will not make riskier loans to boost net interest income, some rivals are “doing dumb things” to increase NII. PayPal (PYPL) is attracting takeover interest from banks and at least one large rival, with some parties considering the whole company and others specific assets, according to Raymond James; potential buyers include Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL), while private equity and bank deals appear unlikely given its USD 50bln+ size, Bloomberg reports. In communications, Telefonica (TELFY) reported Q4 adj. EBITDA of EUR 3.2bln, in line with analyst expectations, as growth in Spain and Brazil offset weakness in other European markets. In tech, Teradata (TDC) entered a settlement agreement with SAP (SAP GY) to resolve all past and pending litigation; Teradata will receive a gross USD 480mln. Keysight Technologies (KEYS) shares jumped over 15% in extended trading after reporting a Q4 beat and issued stronger than expected guidance for Q2. Of note for stocks with COBOL exposure (a programming language designed for business data processing) including Capgemini (CAP FP) and Atos (ATO FP), Anthropic said its Claude code can automate COBOL modernisation efforts. Of note for automakers, European new-vehicle registrations fell 3.5% Y/Y to 961,382 in January, ending a six-month growth streak; declines in France and Germany outweighed increases in the UK and Italy, with weaker consumer demand offsetting continued strength in EV models. In industrials, Panama annulled port concessions held by CK Hutchison’s (CKHUY) subsidiary Panama Port Company for the Balboa and Cristobal terminals following a Supreme Court ruling, and assumed control of the facilities. Interim operations were transferred to Maersk’s (MAERSKB DC) APM Terminals and MSC’s Terminal Investment; CK Hutchison has called the decree unlawful, and is consulting legal advisers. Air France-KLM (AF FP) and Accor (AC FP) will pay financial penalties to bondholders after missing greenhouse gas targets tied to their sustainability-linked bonds; the companies will incur higher coupons and redemption prices as a result of failing to meet the specified climate objectives. In healthcare, Fresenius Medical Care (FME GY) sees broadly stable 2026 earnings, with operating income ranging from a slight decline to mid-single-digit growth, and revenue broadly flat. In 2025, adj. operating income rose +27% to EUR 2.21bln (upper end of guidance), while the adj. operating margin increased to 11.3% (vs 9.3% Y/Y). Hims & Hers (HIMS) shares fell over 8% in extended US trading after it forecast Q1 revenue below expectations, citing a headwind from changes to personalised weight-loss product shipping and ongoing regulatory pressures on its weight-loss business. Pfizer (PFE) acquired exclusive rights in China to commercialise ecnoglutide, an obesity therapy developed by Hangzhou Sciwind Bioscience, in a USD 495mln deal; the drug has been approved in China for diabetes and is under regulatory review for obesity. In notable broker updates, Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) was downgraded at Nordea and at Kepler Cheuvreux; Johnson Matthey (JMAT LN) was downgraded at JPMorgan; Legrand (LR FP) was downgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux; Nokia (NOKIA FH) was downgraded at Danske Bank; Rio Tinto (RIO LN) was downgraded at Barclays; Ashmore (ASHM LN) was upgraded at Jefferies.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: The European data calendar is thin; UK CBI distributive trades data for February; Hungary’s central bank is expected to lower rates by 25bps to 6.25%. Stateside, events are busier: ADP’s weekly employment gauge is due (previously, the weekly average was running at 10.25k over the four-week period); Case-Shiller and the FHFA housing market metrics for December; the Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence is expected to see the headline rise to 87.3 from 84.5. Richmond and Dallas Fed business surveys are out, and the Atlanta Fed will update its GDP now tracking estimate for Q1 (currently modelling 3.1% growth). Fed’s Waller (voter, dove), Fed’s Cook (voter, neutral), Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter, neutral), Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 Voter, Dovish), Fed’s Bostic (retiring, hawk), Fed’s Collins (2028 voter, neutral); the BoE’s Treasury Select Committee hearing will feature Governor Bailey (neutral), BoE’s Greene (hawkish), BoE’s Taylor (dove), BoE Chief Economist Pill (hawkish), and BoE’s Lombardelli (hawkish) is also due to speak elsewhere; Riksbank’s Jansson to speak on the economic situation; ECB President Lagarde will participate in a panel discussion. On the supply front, UK will sell GBP 3bln of 2033 debt, Italy will sell EUR 2-2.5bln of 2028 and between EUR 1.5-2bln of 2031, 2036 BTPeis; the US Treasury will auction USD 69bln of 2yr notes. Notable US companies reporting today include: MercadoLibre (MELI), Home Depot (HD), American Tower (AMT), EOG Resources (EOG), Realty Income (O), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), NRG Energy (NRG), Workday (WDAY), Axon Enterprise (AXON), First Solar (FSLR), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), CoStar Group (CSGP), HP Inc. (HPQ), GoDaddy (GDDY), Henry Schein (HSIC), Mosaic Company (MOS). On the energy front, the API will release its weekly gauge of energy inventories after the close. Afterhours, President Trump will deliver his State of the Union address; the WSJ reports that it will have a focus on the economy.