EUROPEAN OPEN: TMUS & DTE GY in merger talks; HSBA LN shortlists bidders for Singapore life unit; ASM NA beats Q1 revenue, guides above expectations; BN FP Q1 sales beat, guidance unchanged; RKT LN Q1 sales growth misses, outlook maintained

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities started the mid-week session with gains, oil prices have fallen and gold is up after US President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, while maintaining the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of planned peace talks; Trump said Pakistan had asked Washington to refrain from fresh strikes and that the ceasefire would remain in place until Iran submits a new proposal and discussions conclude. However, Axios reported Trump has given Tehran 3-5 days to unite behind a counter-offer or the extended ceasefire could be scrapped; US officials reportedly said divisions between Iran’s military and civilian negotiators have hindered progress. Overnight, APAC stocks were mixed as markets digested the latest geopolitical developments, including the failure of talks in Islamabad. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed to shipping, with Iran saying it would not reopen the waterway while the US blockade stays in force. In data releases, UK CPI rose 0.7% M/M in March (exp. 0.6%), with the annual rate rising to 3.3% Y/Y (exp. 3.3%, prev. 3.0%); the core rate rose by 0.4% M/M (exp. 0.5%), with the annual rate of core CPI easing to 3.1% Y/Y (exp. 3.2%, prev. 3.2%); the services inflation reading rose to 4.5% Y/Y (exp. 4.40%, prev. 4.30%). Pantheon Macroeconomics said the data was largely energy-driven, with Easter airfares and clothing discounting distorting the detail, so the medium-term inflation outlook is little changed; Pantheon thinks the data is not enough to trigger imminent MPC hikes, but it added that firm underlying services inflation should limit rate cuts, and could tilt policy towards hikes if oil prices remain elevated. Elsewhere in the UK, the Iran war could wipe out most of Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal buffer, with new Resolution Foundation research pointing to a GBP 16bln hit to UK public finances; the research said a severe but plausible Middle East scenario would erase almost three-quarters of the chancellor’s headroom against her key fiscal rule.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In communications, T-Mobile (TMUS) and Deutsche Telekom (DTE GY) are discussing a combination to create a more streamlined telecom company, according to sources cited by the WSJ; talks centre on a new holding company making a stock bid for both firms. Deutsche Telekom is already T-Mobile’s largest shareholder, with a stake of just over 53%, worth around USD 218.57bln. A merger could create the world’s largest wireless operator by market capitalisation. Talks are preliminary and will require political support. In financials, HSBC (HSBA LN) shortlisted Allianz (ALV GY), Daiichi Life Group (DLICY), and Sumitomo Life Insurance (SSUMY) as bidders for HSBC Life Singapore, with binding bids expected in the coming weeks; HSBC may seek a valuation of as much as USD 2bln for the business, Bloomberg reports. UK Pension firms were warned they face large costs if they attempt to offload private market assets, following a warning by the industry regulator about some schemes’ high exposure to hard-to-sell investments, FT reports. In tech, ASM International (ASM NA) Q1 revenue beat expectations at EUR 862.5mln (exp. 838mln), and it forecast Q2 revenue of about EUR 980mln (exp. 883.9mln); revenue was driven by logic and foundry, with continued leading-edge strength, a sequential rebound in mature China sales, and faster AI-led demand supported by capacity investment for long-term infrastructure expansion. In consumer sectors, Danone (BN FP) Q1 sales EUR 6.708bln (exp. 6.69bln), as formula recalls and Middle East conflict hit specialised nutrition; guidance was unchanged. Reckitt (RKT LN) reported Q1 like-for-like sales growth of 0.6%, below expectations, as weak US cold and flu demand and Middle East supply disruption weighed; brands including Strepsils and Dettol rose 1.3%; maintained FY 2026 LFL net revenue outlook for its core business of between +4-5%. Evolution (EVO SS) Q1 revenue EUR 513mln (exp. 516.2mln), EBITDA 335.3mln (vs prev. 342mln Y/Y), EPS 1.26 (vs prev. 1.24 Y/Y); Asia and LatAm improved, but Europe declined. Moncler (MONC IM) Moncler reported Q1 revenue growth of 6% to EUR 881mln (exp. 841mln), driven by Asia, while Europe and the Middle East were weaker; EMEA underperformed mainly due to subdued ongoing tourism flows into the region. In industrials, Bureau Veritas (BVI FP) Q1 revenue of EUR 1.547bln (prev. 1.55bln Y/Y), it kept 2026 margin and cash flow guidance unchanged, but lowered its organic revenue view  to mid-single-digits (prev. guided mid-to-high single-digits) amid geopolitics, macro uncertainty and Middle East disruption; also announced a EUR 200mln share buyback. ABB (ABBN SW) raised its annual revenue outlook after Q1 orders jumped, driven by data centre demand for its power-grid products. The company now expects high single-digit to low double-digit comparable revenue growth (prev. saw 6-9%). In materials, AkzoNobel (AKZA NA) reported Q1 adj. EBITDA of EUR 345mln (exp. 325.2mln), aided by price hikes and cost savings, while maintaining 2026 guidance despite Middle East costs. It announced an agreement to sell AkzoNobel Pakistan to Packages Group, with the deal expected to close in H2. BHP Group (BHP AT) beat Q3 iron ore output estimates, with WAIO production of 69.8mln tons (exp. 68.9mln), while copper output fell 7% to 476.8K tons (exp. 479.2K); the miner said FY26 copper output should be in the upper half of its 1.9-2mln ton range, and added that talks with China Mineral Resources Group had concluded. In healthcare, Roche (ROP SW) reported positive Phase III FENhance 1 and 2 fenebrutinib results in multiple sclerosis; Bloomberg said that questions remain over how much it slows long-term disability, and safety concerns, including deaths seen in the trials, have not been fully resolved. In notable broker updates, SAP (SAP GY) upgraded at HSBC; Holcim (HOLN SW) upgraded at AlphaValue; Genmab (GMAB DC) upgraded at Goldman Sachs; Autotrader (AUTO1 LN) downgraded at Barclays; Royal Unibrew (RBREW DC) downgraded at Goldman Sachs.

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In Europe, flash Eurozone consumer confidence is due (exp. -17.9, prev. -16.3). The CBRT policy announcement carries risks of a rate hike (exp. 40%, prev. 37%). In North America, weekly MBA mortgage applications are due.
• SPEAKERS: ECB chief economist Lane (dovish; text expected), President Lagarde (neutral; no text expected), Elderson (neutral; no text expected), Cipollone (no text expected). Riksbank’s Thedeen will speak on war-related supply shocks, and Bunge will speak at a conference. BoE’s Breeden (dovish) will speak on private credit and systemic stability.
• SUPPLY: The US sells USD 13bln of 20yr bonds; Germany sells EUR 2bln of 2041 and 2047 debt.
• ENERGY: EIA publishes weekly energy inventories; afterhours on Tuesday, the API weekly inventory data was said to show headline Crude stocks drawing down by more than expected at -4.5mln bbls (exp -1.8mln), Cushing stocks posted a build of +0.7mln bbls, distillate stocks drew down by a larger than expected -4.6mln bbls (exp. -2.5mln), while gasoline also saw a larger than expected draw of -5.2mln bbls (exp. -1.3mln).
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting results today includes: Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), GE Vernova (GEV), Philip Morris (PM), IBM (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Vertiv (VRT), ServiceNow (NOW), CME (CME), Boston Scientific (BSX), Moody’s (MCO), CSX (CSX), TE Connectivity (TEL), Elevance Health (ELV), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Rentals (URI), Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Crown Castle (CCI), Otis (OTIS), Raymond James (RJF), Rollins (ROL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Packaging of America (PKG), Masco (MAS), Globe Life (GL).