EUROPEAN OPEN: US to begin Hormuz blockade; GSK LN reports BEHOLD-1 results, plans five late-stage trials; RIO LN draws interest for USD 2bln rare earth assets; BAMI IM eyes Banca del Mezzogiorno; Ahead, earnings season begins

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities started the week on the defensive after US-Iran peace talks collapsed and Washington announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective 10:00EDT/15:00BST on Monday, applying to all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports. Trump and his advisers are also weighing limited military strikes against Iran, though a full bombing campaign is considered less likely. Iran’s military adviser said Tehran “will not allow” the embargo. Brent surged and enters the European day around USD 102/bbl, with some analysts forecasting prices could rise to USD 150/bbl if the blockade proceeds along the waterway, which carried around one-fifth of global oil and LNG before the conflict. Dutch TTF natgas futures jumped above EUR 51.30/MWH before paring gains, with Bloomberg noting the contract’s trading day was extended to 21 hours from 10. Copper fell and aluminium spiked, with metals broadly facing weaker demand risks as soaring energy prices weigh on the global economy. Global bonds slid as higher-for-longer rate expectations reasserted themselves, with elevated energy costs seen delaying Fed cuts. Gold fell below USD 4,650/oz before paring losses, and currently trades around USD 4,725/oz, pressured by a stronger USD and fears of central bank rate increases. EM stocks fell overnight, dragged by tech, though Singapore equities are approaching record highs, on course to become the first major Asian market to reclaim new highs since the conflict began. Chinese stocks and bonds have been moving in lockstep for the first time in two years as haven demand supports both asset classes. Most regional currencies weakened against the Buck. The Hungarian forint surged to a four-year high after Peter Magyar’s Tisza party won a landslide election victory, ending Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule; prelim results from over 98% of votes counted show Tisza on course for 138 seats versus Fidesz’s 55, exceeding the 133-seat constitutional supermajority threshold, amid a record turnout; the victory is expected to unlock billions of Euros in frozen EU funding for Hungary. In the UK, Chancellor Reeves pledged to boost business competitiveness amid rising energy bills, warning against heavy government borrowing; elsewhere, the Resolution Foundation warned the median working-age household faces a 0.6% income drop this financial year due to surging energy prices (prev. saw a rise of 0.9%), leaving a typical household nearly GBP 500 worse off. Ahead, earnings season kicks-off today amid renewed inflation fears as the Iran conflict drove oil prices higher, while consumer sentiment has weakened and concerns around private credit and AI disruption add to headwinds; notable corporates reporting today include: Goldman Sachs (GS) , LVMH (MC FP), and Fastenal (FAST).
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In healthcare, GSK (GSK LN) reported Phase I BEHOLD-1 trial results for mocertatug rezetecan, showing confirmed objective response rates of 62% in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer and 67% in recurrent or advanced endometrial cancer; the pharma is also reportedly planning five simultaneous late-stage trials of the drug. Sanofi (SAN FP) and Regeneron (REGN) said the EU approved Dupixent for moderate-to-severe CSU in children aged two to 11 years with inadequate response to H1AH and naïve to IgE therapy. Roche (ROP SW) said its Elecsys NfL test received CE mark approval for detecting neuroinflammation in patients diagnosed with RRMS. In materials, Rio Tinto (RIO LN) has reportedly drawn interest from more than a dozen potential bidders for its US critical minerals assets, which could fetch as much as USD 2bln. In consumer sectors, Imperial Brands (IMB LN) started its second share buyback tranche of up to GBP 725mln, following the previously announced total GBP 1.45bln share buyback programme. Italy’s government has exercised Golden Powers to impose restrictions on Pirelli’s (PIRC IM) governance and shareholding structure, limiting Marco Polo/CNRC to appointing up to three directors (two independent) and barring them from key executive or committee roles. Any share transfers by Marco Polo/CNRC must be disclosed to authorities and cannot involve entities linked to Sinochem’s control. Of note for companies in infant formulas, New Zealand’s A2 Milk lowered its revenue and earnings guidance after supply chain disruptions partly linked to the Iran war slowed shipments of China-label infant formula to distributors and retailers in China. In industrials, Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GY) pilot union Vereinigung Cockpit has called a two-day strike at Lufthansa on 13th April to midnight 14th April, affecting Lufthansa passenger and cargo flights as well as Eurowings departures. Poste Italiane (PST IM) filed with CONSOB its cash-and-share offer for all remaining Telecom Italia (TIT IM) ordinary shares, covering up to 17.06bln shares at EUR 0.167 plus 0.0218 new Poste shares each. In financials, Lloyds (LLOY LN) dropped plans to challenge the UK car finance compensation scheme, saying continuing with the FCA redress scheme is the right step for customers. UniCredit (UCG IM) said it has no plans to liquidate its Russian business or surrender its local banking licence, reaffirming its strategy of shrinking, not exiting at a loss. Banco BPM (BAMI IM) is interested in buying Banca del Mezzogiorno to strengthen its position in southern Italy, according to reports in Italian media. Partners Group (PGHN SW) said fundraising momentum remained positive, with USD 8.3bln of new client demand across private markets, and reaffirmed FY26 gross new client demand guidance of USD 26-32bln. Of note for Norwegian companies, the LO and Parat unions reached a wage deal with NHO covering about 250,000 private-sector workers, averting a strike after agreeing a 4.4% pay increase for 2026. In notable broker updates, Kone (KNEBV FH) was upgraded at Danske Bank; Nokia (NOKIA FH) was upgraded at Bank of America, but downgraded at Nordea; Schindler (SCHP SW) was upgraded at Goldman Sachs; Sodexo (SW FP) was upgraded at AlphaValue; Volvo (VOLVB SS) was downgraded at Pareto.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: In data releases, US existing home sales for March are expected to print 4.01mln (from 4.09mln). In energy, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report. On the speakers’ slate, Fed’s Miran (voter, dovish dissenter) will speak at the Symposium on Building the Financial System after the US close; ECB’s de Guindos (dovish) will give remarks at a symposium. Notable corporates reporting today include: Goldman Sachs (GS), LVMH (MC FP), and Fastenal (FAST).
• WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include: US PPI, Chinese GDP, Australian Jobs, UK GDP, ECB minutes. Earnings season also kicks-off this week; major corporates reporting include: TSMC (TSM), JPMorgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), ASML (ASML), Netflix (NFLX), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), PepsiCo (PEP), Citigroup (C), Abbott (ABT), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), US Bancorp (USB), Travelers (TRV), PNC (PNC), Fastenal (FAST), Truist (TFC), Infosys (INFY), Citizens (CFG), M&T (MTB), State Street (STT), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), Alcoa (AA), Snap (SNAP), Autoliv (ALV).
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