EUROPEAN OPEN: WAF GY prelim Q4 tops expectations; PUB FP profits miss, sales beat; PSM GY sales fall on weak advertising; AKZA NA warns of tough 2026; REP SM downgraded at JPMorgan, UHR SW upgraded at BofA

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities have started with gains. Overnight, APAC stocks were mostly higher with several bourses firmly recovering from the prior day’s sell-off, as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street. However, Chinese tech shares slid sharply on tax concerns, pushing the Hang Seng Tech Index to the brink of a bear market; Kuaishou, Tencent (TCEHY) and Alibaba (BABA) were among the biggest losers. Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a record high as strong earnings in technology and finance lifted sentiment and a rebound in gold prices boosted risk appetite. Demand dipped at Japan’s 10yr bond auction as investors stayed cautious ahead of a snap election; bid-to-cover fell to 3.02x, below last month and the 12-month average, while yields rose with a rebound in Japanese stocks and the JPY remained stable. South Korean stocks surged as chipmakers rebounded, driving the Kospi to a record; Samsung jumped up to 11%, its biggest gain since 2009, while SK Hynix rose more than 9%. The RBA became the first major central bank to tighten policy this year, lifting rates by 25bps to 3.85%, its first hike in two years, citing a worsening inflation outlook and stronger economic conditions. The decision was unanimous, with policymakers judging that inflation pressures are persistent enough to justify restraint. Gold rebounded after a sharp unwind of its rally, rising to test USD 4,900/oz after a two-day collapse; silver also climbed, rising above USD 85/oz. Copper rebounded as a metals selloff eased; the move followed an 11% drop from a record high last Thursday to Monday’s close, with other base metals also gaining. Bitcoin remained under pressure, stalling after a weak rebound from a 10-month low as options activity signalled continued caution; prices were below USD 78,500 overnight. after nearly falling to its lowest level in over a year. Oil fell for a third day as geopolitical tensions eased and traders awaited clarity on a US-India trade deal that could curb imports of discounted Russian crude; Brent traded near USD 66/bbl and WTI near USD 62/bbl. President Trump said the US and India reached a trade deal after a call with PM Modi, cutting US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% (from 50%); the President added that India would stop buying Russian oil. France’s parliament adopted the 2026 budget after PM Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes, ending months of political turmoil; a far-left motion won 260 votes, short of the 289 needed to oust the minority government, while a far-right motion also failed. In data, France's prelim inflation for January eased to 0.3% Y/Y (exp. 0.6%, prev. 0.8%), with the HICP gauge at 0.4% Y/Y (exp. 0.6%, prev. 0.7%). Meanwhile, the partial US government shutdown will delay the January jobs report (which was due on Friday) and other labour data (including the JOLTS report that was scheduled for release today), the BLS said; data collection and releases are suspended until funding is restored after the shutdown began on 31st January. On the shutdown front, a US House vote is expected today to end the government shutdown after a Committee advanced the Senate spending package.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, OpenAI has sought alternatives to Nvidia’s (NVDA) latest AI chips since last year, citing dissatisfaction with the speed at which Nvidia hardware delivers answers to ChatGPT users on complex problems; CNBC earlier reported that the potential deal between Nvidia and OpenAI still remains under consideration despite recent reports that Nvidia was stalling. Later, OpenAI’s chief Sam Altman said he hopes to be a huge Nvidia customer in the long-term, and that Nvidia makes the world’s best AI chips. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) shares rose 11.5% in extended trading after it reported a record quarter that beat expectations, with strong demand for its AI offerings highlighted as the key driver. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) shares fell 6.1% in extended trading after reporting a in line revenues, and slower-than-expected automotive growth, which outweighed the modest earnings beat. STMicroelectronics (STM FP) completed the acquisition of NXP Semiconductors’ MEMS sensors business, announced in July 2025; the deal expands sensors capabilities and is expected to contribute about USD 45-49mln to revenues in Q1. Siltronic (WAF GY) preliminary Q4 results topped expectations, helped by order push-backs and pull-ins; the wafer maker said demand linked to AI provided support, but warned 2026 will remain challenging, and said it was too early to give guidance. In communications, ProSiebenSat.1 (PSM GY) 2025 revenue fell to about EUR 3.68bln (from EUR 3.92bln), on weak TV advertising in Germany; revenue was within its guidance range. It expects adj. EBITDA below the lower end of its latest target, and will publish full results on 26th March. Publicis (PUB FP) said account wins and AI demand lifted Q4 performance, with organic net revenue up +5.9%, Y/Y, beating expectations. EPS missed at 6.50 (exp. 6.57), but revenue rose 8.5% to EUR 17.4bln (exp. 14.5bln). Sees 2026 organic net revenue growth of 4-5%. In financials, Europe’s largest asset manager Amundi (AMUN FP) reported Q4 pretax profit above expectations, and the company said it is benefiting from investors diversifying away from USD assets. AUM rose +6% Y/Y at EUR 2.38tln (+6% Y/Y). It also announced a EUR 500mln share buyback. Amundi said outflows from UniCredit (UCG IM) networks totalled EUR 16bln last year, including EUR 4bln in Q4, raising concerns the Italian bank may wind down its sales partnership with the French asset manager. In materials, Akzo Nobel (AKZA NA) warned of a tough 2026, citing sluggish customer demand and persistent economic uncertainty limiting spending. The paint maker reported Q4 sales of EUR 2.37bln (prev. 2.62bln Y/Y), adj. EBITDA EUR 309mln (prev. 321mln Y/Y). It forecast adj. EBITDA of at least EUR 1.47bln in 2026 (vs EUR 1.44bln Y/Y), and below analyst expectations. Boliden (BOL SS) reported Q4 short of analyst expectations, despite revenue rising Y/Y; operating profit excluding inventory revaluation increased, supported by stronger precious metal prices, record mine profit and record copper cathode production at Harjavalta. In industrials, BayWa (BYW6 GY) is holding precautionary talks with financing partners and major shareholders about possible adjustments to its restructuring process; the German ags and energy group said the talks do not affect liquidity, but could delay publication of its 2025 financial statements. In utilities, a federal judge blocked the Interior Department’s order halting Orsted’s (ORSTED DC) Sunrise Wind off New York, allowing construction to resume. Judge said the national security justification was insufficient. Orsted said the pause cost USD 2.5mln per day, with about USD 7bln already spent or committed. In healthcare, Sanofi (SAN FP) plans a share buyback of EUR 1bln in 2026. In notable broker updates, Antofagasta (ANTO LN) was downgraded at Morgan Stanley; Morgan Stanley downgrades Renault (RNO FP) and Stellantis (STLAM IM); Repsol (REP SM) was downgraded at JPMorgan; Swatch (UHR SW) was upgraded at BofA; Galp (GALP PL) was upgraded at JPMorgan.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: A partial US government shutdown will delay the January jobs report (which was due Friday) and other labour data (including the JOLTS report that was scheduled for release today), the BLS said; data collection and releases are suspended until funding is restored after the shutdown began on 31st January. The US Day sees the release of RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for February, which is expected to rise slightly to 47.9 from 47.2. After the close, the API will release its gauge of weekly energy inventories. Speakers today include: Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter, neutral; text and Q&A expected), Fed’s Bowman (voter, dovish; text and Q&A expected); ECB President Lagarde will speak at an informal dinner with EU Commissioner Sefcovic, but is not expected to comment on monpol ahead of the central bank’s policy announcement on Thursday. Today’s supply slate includes a UK sale of GBP 4.25bln in 2035 Gilts; Germany will sell EUR 1.5bln of 2035 Green Bunds. Notable US corporates reporting today includes: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Merck (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), Eaton (ETN), and Chubb (CB).