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Fed Governor Miran (Dove) confirms he is the most dovish dot plot, sees 150bps of cuts this year; reiterates excess inflation above target is due to statistical quirks

Fed Governor Miran's remarks underscore a significant dovish stance, indicating he supports substantial rate cuts of 150 basis points this year.

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Fed Governor Miran (Dove) confirms he is the most dovish dot plot, sees 150bps of cuts this year; reiterates excess inflation above target is due to statistical quirks

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  • When you strip out the noise, inflation is operating at about 2.3%.
  • Marked down growth forecasts in future as he thinks policy has been too tight for the last year.
  • Reiterates his view that goods inflation is not being driven by tariffs.
  • Unemployment is somewhat above he views natural rate.
  • If unemployment drops (was asked about to 4.5% or 4.4%) he would adjust his rate forecast.
  • It is difficult to argue that policy is not restrictive at the moment.
  • Materially above neutral in his view.
  • Reiterates he does not know what his future is at the Fed.
Context

His insistence that current inflation figures are skewed and that the labor market remains tighter than needed suggests a reassessment of monetary policy may be imminent if his views gain traction within the Fed. This dovish outlook potentially weakens the USD and may lead to broader risk-on sentiment across markets as investors recalibrate expectations around future rate paths.

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