Fed Governor Miran (Dove) confirms he is the most dovish dot plot, sees 150bps of cuts this year; reiterates excess inflation above target is due to statistical quirks
Importance
Level 1
- When you strip out the noise, inflation is operating at about 2.3%.
- Marked down growth forecasts in future as he thinks policy has been too tight for the last year.
- Reiterates his view that goods inflation is not being driven by tariffs.
- Unemployment is somewhat above he views natural rate.
- If unemployment drops (was asked about to 4.5% or 4.4%) he would adjust his rate forecast.
- It is difficult to argue that policy is not restrictive at the moment.
- Materially above neutral in his view.
- Reiterates he does not know what his future is at the Fed.
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