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Fed Governor Waller said he thought he would be dissenting after the last jobs report, but Iran conflict changed things; now expects labour force growth to be close to zero, which changes the breakeven level of job growth

Governor Waller's remarks indicate a cautious stance from the Fed in light of the Iran conflict and its impact on inflation, particularly through rising oil prices.

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Fed Governor Waller said he thought he would be dissenting after the last jobs report, but Iran conflict changed things; now expects labour force growth to be close to zero, which changes the breakeven level of job growth

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  • Closure of Hormuz has suggested more inflation pressure.
  • Brain understands the jobs math, but his gut can't say if its okay.
  • If oil stays high for months, at some point it bleeds into core inflation. 
  • High and persistent oil shock would not have a transitory impact on inflation.
  • Fed cannot look through a large and persistent oil shock. At this point, caution for the Fed is warranted.
  • Wants to wait and see how this evolves before deciding on rate cuts for later this year.
  • Would advocate for cuts again late in the year if labour market is weak.
  • Fed is making progress on taming structural inflation, which may be close to 2% now but it is held higher by tariffs.
  • Does not think there is a need to consider rate hikes.
  • Markets have not shows any unanchoring of inflation expectations. Investors understand inflation will drop as tariffs roll off.
  • Wants to observe how economy changed before making decision on rate cuts later this year.
  • If tariff effects do not roll off by H2, it will be tricky.
  • A shock of the right sort could push companies to start cutting labor.
  • Consumer outlook could also be damaged with gas prices climbing.
  • No reason to make bank reserves scarce just to reduce the balance sheet.
  • Proposals to change demand for reserves, and allowing the balance sheet to shrink is a good topic for study and discussion.
  • If there are losses in private credit it is a bunch of firms and rich people.
Context

His focus on labor force growth potentially slowing to zero suggests a need for vigilant monitoring of economic conditions before considering rate cuts, especially if inflation remains pressured by persistent energy costs. This dovish tone could weigh on expectations for aggressive rate hikes in the near term, impacting market sentiment across fixed income and equities.

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