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Fed Governor Waller says there are reasons including AI to think the hiring may remain weak, it is difficult to interpret recent jobless claims data

Fed Governor Waller's comments underscore a bleak outlook for the labor market, with weak hiring expected to persist due to over-hiring and the impact of AI on job cuts.

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Fed Governor Waller says there are reasons including AI to think the hiring may remain weak, it is difficult to interpret recent jobless claims data

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Fed Governor Waller says he would support a 25-basis-point reduction in March if January labour strength is revised away or evaporates but may be appropriate to hold if downside labour market risks have diminished

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  • Firms are starting to shed labour after over-hiring.
  • CEOs says significant job cuts are coming from AI.
  • Weak labour market is likely to continue going forward. 
  • Productivity growth in the last year or so is not from AI.
  • Watching the vacancy rate, if that continues to fall it would be unusual if the unemployment rate did not climb.
  • It would be inefficient to move to a scarce reserves regime today.
  • If productivity is rising, the neutral rate is likely rising as well.
  • Data suggests labour demand is falling more than labour supply.
  • Bottleneck of AI is energy, it is an emerging issue in many parts of the country.
  • Zero job growth does not seem like a stable employment environment. 
Context

This perception of a weakening labor market may reinforce dovish sentiment for future monetary policy, as the Fed might need to adjust its rate path to support growth amid declining labor demand.

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