Fed Governor Waller says there are reasons including AI to think the hiring may remain weak, it is difficult to interpret recent jobless claims data
Importance
Level 1
- Firms are starting to shed labour after over-hiring.
- CEOs says significant job cuts are coming from AI.
- Weak labour market is likely to continue going forward.
- Productivity growth in the last year or so is not from AI.
- Watching the vacancy rate, if that continues to fall it would be unusual if the unemployment rate did not climb.
- It would be inefficient to move to a scarce reserves regime today.
- If productivity is rising, the neutral rate is likely rising as well.
- Data suggests labour demand is falling more than labour supply.
- Bottleneck of AI is energy, it is an emerging issue in many parts of the country.
- Zero job growth does not seem like a stable employment environment.
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