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Fed SLOOS January: Regarding loans to businesses, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes

The latest Fed survey indicates tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans across all firm sizes, which could signal increased caution among banks amid economic uncertainty.

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Fed SLOOS January: Regarding loans to businesses, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes

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  • Meanwhile, banks reported stronger demand for C&I loans to large and middle-market firms and basically unchanged demand for C&I loans to small firms on net.
  • Banks reported generally unchanged standards and stronger demand for commercial real estate (CRE) loans.
  • Banks reported expecting loan quality to remain around current levels for C&I loans to large and middle-market firms but to deteriorate for C&I loans to small firms; to improve for CRE loans; and to deteriorate for RRE and most consumer loan categories.
  • Banks reported, on net, being more likely to approve loans to firms benefiting from high AI exposure and less likely to approve loans to firms adversely affected by high AI exposure.
  • The likelihood of C&I loan approval to firms with little AI exposure was reportedly unchanged.
  • Regarding the impact of AI on different sectors, banks reported that AI had a beneficial effect for all queried sectors, on balance, with some variation in how widely such benefits were reported.
Context

Despite this, demand remains robust for large and middle-market firms, suggesting a bifurcated credit environment where larger entities have better access to financing. This trend may influence the Fed's policy stance as it assesses credit conditions and economic growth prospects.

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