Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says current monetary policy is well positioned to deal with what likely lies ahead, Future Fed moves will be driven by data and views on outlook
Newsquawk Staff ·
Policy
- Fed's stance allows 'leeway' for the supply side of the economy to develop.
- Policy is roughly in a neutral stance.
Economic Outlook
- Is cautiously optimistic about economic outlook.
- Expects the economy to grow by 2.2% in 2026.
Jobs
- Job market stabilizing, inflation should moderate.
- The job market is likely in balance with a low-hire, low-fire environment.
- Job market softer on reduced demand, immigration issues.
Inflation
- Strong commitment to price stability reduces inflation risks.
- Tariffs likely represent a one-time shift in price level.
- Possible that stronger productivity could temper inflation pressures.
- Tariffs were a key driver of inflation in 2025, price pressures should ease in 2026.
- PCE price index likely rose 2.9% in December Y/Y.
- While upside risks remain, he expects inflation pressures to ease.
What it means
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's comments suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook, indicating that current monetary policy is effectively supporting economic stability while remaining data-dependent for future moves. His emphasis on a neutral stance and potential for inflation pressures to ease points to a sustained commitment to price stability, which may influence market sentiment towards risk assets and the USD. Overall, this signals that the Fed is gauging economic developments closely before adjusting its policy stance.
Sources
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 3.3% (prev. 3.4%)
- US EQUITY OPEN: Indices rangebound ahead of FOMC and major earnings
- UK DMO says gross gilt issuance planned for 2026/27 is GBP 250.6bln (exp. 249.6bln, prev. 246.2bln in April remit)
- Ukrainian President Zelensky says negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the US could take place as early as November 10th
- US Midterms (6 days out): Florida flips to a Republican early-vote lead and Kansas narrows further; Crystal Ball shifts House and Senate races towards Democrats
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