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Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) says the drop in the unemployment rate is welcome

Barkin's comments reveal a cautious optimism regarding the recent drop in the unemployment rate.

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Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) says the drop in the unemployment rate is welcome

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  • Hard to find firms outside of Healthcare or Ai who are hiring.
  • Job growth is modest, very much in line with low-hiring and low-firing continuing
  • Narrowness of hiring is "uncomfortable"
  • Does not hear cost of interest being cited as a major problem for businesses.
  • In theory, lower labour supply and lower job growth is a reasonable balance.
  • It is not clear whether the job market will break towards more hiring or more firing.
  • Believes there is actual change in productivity
  • Demand growth still seems quite healthy.
  • Coming data will be important, it is still not trivial that the Fed is still trying to catch up with gaps from the shutdown.
  • Real solution to housing is supply, more homes need to be built.
  • Jobs data can now be taken at face value.
  • On inflation, it will take more time to make up for missing reports from last fall.
Context

However, he notes the narrow hiring landscape, primarily among healthcare and AI sectors, which could signal underlying issues in job growth and economic stability. His mention of upcoming data being crucial suggests market participants should closely monitor further employment reports to gauge the Fed's response and potential policy shifts.

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