Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) says the drop in the unemployment rate is welcome
Importance
Level 1
- Hard to find firms outside of Healthcare or Ai who are hiring.
- Job growth is modest, very much in line with low-hiring and low-firing continuing
- Narrowness of hiring is "uncomfortable"
- Does not hear cost of interest being cited as a major problem for businesses.
- In theory, lower labour supply and lower job growth is a reasonable balance.
- It is not clear whether the job market will break towards more hiring or more firing.
- Believes there is actual change in productivity
- Demand growth still seems quite healthy.
- Coming data will be important, it is still not trivial that the Fed is still trying to catch up with gaps from the shutdown.
- Real solution to housing is supply, more homes need to be built.
- Jobs data can now be taken at face value.
- On inflation, it will take more time to make up for missing reports from last fall.
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