Fed's Kashkari (2026 Voter) says the economy is confusing and job market is showing signs of weakness; inflation is still too high but moving in the right way

• Overall, the economy seems quite resilient.
• Economy has not slowed as much as expected, describes it as K-shaped.
• Wonders how tight monetary policy actually is.
• Has seen less tariff pass through than expected.
• Tariffs haven't been gut punch many feared, but long term story still playing out.
• 2% inflation remains target, remains committed to getting that level.
• Does not expect inflation to surge again.
• Current Fed balance sheet expansion is not QE.
• Sees pretty good growth, does not see need for Fed QE.
• Biggest barrier to housing market is supply.
• Declines to comment on Trump administration buying mortgage bonds.
• Job and inflation goals are in tension.
• Welcomes recent decline in unemployment rate.
• Is not sure what the current breakeven rate is for the job market.
• Will take a few more months for government data to recover from the shutdown impact.
• Feels pretty confident job market is moving sideways and inflation is easing.
• Households have pretty good balance sheets.
• Inflation has been the main driver thus far of financial distress.
• Hasn't seen anything very alarming in consumer borrowing yet.

Kashkari's remarks highlight a nuanced view of the economy, suggesting resilience despite underlying job market weaknesses and persistent inflation concerns. His acknowledgment of a K-shaped recovery and the tension between job and inflation goals indicates potential challenges ahead for monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates and growth expectations. This could imply a more cautious Fed approach, as markets may reassess rate path probabilities in light of his insights.