Fed's Logan (2026 voter, Hawk) says uncertainty in the economy continues, one of the biggest uncertainties is from the tech sector

Fed's Logan is highlighting persistent uncertainties in the U.S.

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Fed's Logan (2026 voter, Hawk) says uncertainty in the economy continues, one of the biggest uncertainties is from the tech sector

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Economy/Policy

  • Supported January decision to hold amid a stabilising job market.
  • Is not fully convinced they are on a path to 2% inflation.
  • SCOTUS decision has led to more uncertainty.
  • Upside inflation risks remain.
  • Policy is well positioned to deal with risks to the mandate.
  • Is worried about economic demand outstripping supply.
  • Around 30k per month is the job market breakeven rate, at this point.
  • Does not want to speculate about future policy decisions. 
  • Thinks policy is well positioned.
  • It is important to look at the issue of interest rate Fed targets for policy. 

Liquidity/Reserves

  • Important for banks to make sure they're ready to access liquidity.
  • Would like a central clearing for Fed Repo operations.
  • It is challenging to define what ample reserves means.
  • Demand for reserves will change over time.
  • Very possible system could change to lower demand for reserves
  • Payment tech innovations, regulations could change demand for liquidity.
  • Does not have strong views about direction of liquidity regulations.
  • Should look at regulations to see if liquidity is too tied down.
  • Dollar swap lines have been very powerful in times of stress.
Context

economy, particularly from the tech sector, which could impact inflation and monetary policy. His cautious stance suggests that while the Fed is currently positioned well, he remains concerned about potential upside risks to inflation and economic demand exceeding supply, indicating that the rate path might be influenced by evolving economic conditions.

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