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Fed's Miran (dove, dissenter) hesitant to read too much into one months job report and policy is pretty miscalibrated from here, via CNBC interview

Miran's comments highlight a dovish stance that could signal the Fed may be leaning toward cuts in the near future, particularly with his call for a reduction to a neutral rate of 2.5-2.75%.

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Fed's Miran (dove, dissenter) hesitant to read too much into one months job report and policy is pretty miscalibrated from here, via CNBC interview

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  • MonPol is too tight.
  • Fed typically does not respond to oil prices.
  • If anything it biases him towards even more dovish policy.
  • Oil shock can weigh on core inflation by hurting demand.
  • No inflation pressure in rents.
  • Neutral is like 2.5-2.75%.
  • Hopes Fed votes to cut next FOMC meeting, and will be a dissenter if not.
  • Fed should cut rates to neutral, then re-estimate.
  • Planning is tough for him now, will continue to holdover until someone is confirmed in his seat.
Context

His hesitance to overreact to a single jobs report underscores the Fed's cautious approach amidst uncertainty, which could influence market expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting. This dovish tilt might further weaken the USD as it suggests a shift in monetary policy that prioritizes boosting growth over combating inflation.

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