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Fed's Miran (voter) now sees a less accommodative rate path, according to an interview in The Peg; he would reverse his Dec. shift toward easier policy if he is still at the Fed by the March meeting, citing firmer labour data and renewed goods inflation

Miran's shift in outlook indicates a more hawkish stance than previously expected, directly suggesting that the Fed may not ease policy as aggressively as earlier thought.

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[MARKET UPDATE] Stocks see downside and Dollar gains as Miran now sees a less accommodative rate path, and "only" 100bps of cuts now this year vs 150bps in his December SEP; in summary, more hawkish remarks from the ultra dove Miran

CRUDE WRAP: WTI (J6) SETTLES USD 1.24 HIGHER AT USD 66.43/BBL; BRENT (J6) SETTLES USD 1.31 AT USD 71.66/BBL

Fed's Miran (voter) now sees a less accommodative rate path, according to an interview in The Peg; he would reverse his Dec. shift toward easier policy if he is still at the Fed by the March meeting, citing firmer labour data and renewed goods inflation

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  • Suggests that if he had to submit a rate projection for 2026 on current data, he would pencil in 100bps in cuts this year, instead of the 150 bps he submitted at the December forecast round.
Context

This perception could tighten market expectations for rate cuts and lead to a stronger USD as traders recalibrate their positions ahead of the March meeting, particularly given the firming labor data and rising goods inflation. The anticipated shift in policy will likely influence fixed income and forex markets significantly.

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