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Fed's Musalem (2028 voter, hawk) says inflation is almost a full percentage point above target and the labour market cooling in an orderly way

Musalem's comments underscore a hawkish stance, indicating that inflation remains significantly above target while the labor market displays signs of cooling.

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Fed's Musalem (2028 voter, hawk) says inflation is almost a full percentage point above target and the labour market cooling in an orderly way

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  • Base case outlook is economy grows at or above 2%.
  • Financial conditions are accommodative, there is deregulation, and fiscal tailwinds
  • Half of the excess inflation is from tariffs, which will fade as the year progresses.
  • Job market is vulnerable to an increase in layoffs, not his base case but it could happen
  • Inflation could stay higher for longer, this is not his baseline.
  • Policy is neutral now in real terms.
  • Policy is balancing appropriately
  • Government shutdown may have biased CPI downward, and could stay that way through April; PCE inflation is a better gauge
  • Bringing inflation down to target will help with consumption and growth, and could lower 10-year rate.
  • Looking forward to learning what Warsh's priorities might be.
  • Expects the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate to continue under a new chair
Context

His emphasis on growth projections above 2% alongside accommodative financial conditions suggests that the Fed is in a delicate balancing act, which could impact future rate decisions, particularly if inflation persists beyond expectations.

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