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Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) says current range of interest rate is likely appropriate for some time; oil shock likely feeding core inflation and expects it will be near 3% through year-end

Musalem's comments suggest a dovish stance, indicating the Fed may maintain the current interest rate range for an extended period despite rising core inflation pressures, likely linked to oil shocks.

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Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) says current range of interest rate is likely appropriate for some time; oil shock likely feeding core inflation and expects it will be near 3% through year-end

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  • Supply shocks put Fed's inflation and employment goals at risk. 
  • Has lowered his GDP estimates for the year to between 1.5-2% (prev. 2.0-2.5% pre-war). 
  • Easing tariff impact will help lower inflation, housing inflation also moving in right direction. 
  • Does not see clear impacts yet from war on consumption. 
  • Unemployment rate could rise a couple of tenths of a percentage point as economic growth slows. 
Context

His lowered GDP forecasts signal potential economic weakness, which could influence monetary policy, while the easing of tariffs may provide some relief to inflation. Traders should monitor these dynamics closely, as they could impact the USD, fixed income, and broader market sentiment.

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