Fed’s Williams (voter) says the US economy is solid, while the underlying labour market is doing well

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Fed’s Williams (voter) says the US economy is solid, while the underlying labour market is doing well

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Goldman Sachs' (GS) COO Waldron says inflation is likely the single largest risk element

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  • Middle East conflict is lifting inflation, though the surge in energy prices is likely short-lived.
  • US is currently less sensitive to oil shocks than historically.
  • Monetary policy needs to be data-dependent.
  • Near-term inflation is around 4%, while core inflation is around 3%.
  • Anchoring inflation expectations is critical.
  • Sees elevated near term inflation expectations but long term is stable.
  • Supply chain disruptions are a concern, which has occurred due to the Iran war.
  • Fed must be clear that it is getting inflation to 2%.
  • Path for monetary policy depends on data, outlook and risks.
  • Monetary policy is well positioned, where the Fed wants it to be.
  • Persistently high inflation would call for higher rates but that is not where we are today. 
  • Better Fed communications improves policy effectiveness. 

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