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Fitch affirms Japan at A, outlook Stable

Fitch's affirmation of Japan's rating reflects a strong fiscal performance but acknowledges rising yields amid monetary tightening and uncertain fiscal policies.

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Fitch affirms Japan at A, outlook Stable

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  • "Bond yields continue to rise amid monetary tightening and we forecast fiscal deficits to rise steadily, but now-entrenched inflation and a strong fiscal performance in recent years should keep debt on a slightly downward trend and mitigate fiscal risks from a ratings perspective." and "Persistent current account surpluses, a large external asset position and the yen's reserve currency status also support the rating."
  • "The fiscal outlook is uncertain and risks remain that fiscal policy could be more expansionary than we project"
  • "We project yields to rise a bit further, but remain below nominal GDP growth."
  • "...expect inflation to remain entrenched, though we forecast a slight easing in headline inflation to 2.3% by end-2026 from around 3% currently"
  • BoJ: "...expect the policy rate to reach 1.5% by end-2026, from 0.75% following the BOJ's latest 25bp hike in December 2025. We anticipate the BOJ will also continue to taper its purchases of JGBs at its planned pace, despite pressures on longer-end yields over the past year."
Context

The forecasted interest rate increase by the BoJ indicates a cautious yet ongoing normalization, while persistent inflation will shape market expectations. Overall, this outlook suggests potential support for the yen but highlights the delicate balance the BoJ faces in managing economic stability.

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