FOMC Statement: Rates held between 3.50-3.75% in 11-1 vote (Miran dissents)

The FOMC's decision to hold rates steady at 3.50-3.75% reflects a cautious stance amidst a divided committee, with one member advocating for a rate cut.

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FOMC Statement: Rates held between 3.50-3.75% in 11-1 vote (Miran dissents)

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RATE DECISION

  • Fed maintains target range for federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%

VOTE SPLIT

  • Eleven voted for unchanged; one voted for a 25bps rate cut (Miran)
  • Miran preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps at this meeting

FORWARD GUIDANCE

  • Committee will continue to monitor implications of incoming information for the economic outlook
  • Committee would adjust the stance of policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede its goals
  • Assessments will take into account labour market conditions, inflation pressures, inflation expectations, and financial and international developments

OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATES

  • In considering additional rate adjustments, Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks
  • Committee says it is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to 2%

LABOUR MARKET

  • Job gains have remained low
  • Unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months

INFLATION

  • Inflation remains somewhat elevated

GDP GROWTH

  • Available indicators suggest economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace

BALANCE OF RISKS

  • Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated
  • Implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain
  • Committee is attentive to risks to both sides of its dual mandate
Context

This decision signals that while the Fed remains committed to addressing inflation and supporting employment, there is notable uncertainty regarding economic conditions, particularly with external risks like developments in the Middle East. Traders should watch for future guidance on rate adjustments as incoming economic data shape the Fed's policy outlook.

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