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French S&P Composite PMI Flash (Mar) 48.3 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 49.9, Low. 48.9, High. 49.8)

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French S&P Composite PMI Flash (Mar) 48.3 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 49.9, Low. 48.9, High. 49.8)

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S&P writes

  • "Soaring oil and oil-product prices, rising fuel costs and disrupted maritime supply chains have led to the worst delivery delays from vendors in over three years and pushed up input prices for French companies to an extent not witnessed since late-2023."
  • "We saw a very limited pass-through to selling prices, however, likely because prevailing demand conditions prior to the war in the Middle East were subdued. This dynamic could play a crucial role in determining how much of this supply shock filters through to the wider economy."
  • "March was further complicated by local elections, with firms reporting that clients held back on spending as a consequence. For that reason, April may give us a better indication of the true state of the economy, but for now, France's burgeoning recovery looks to be on ice."
  • "A sharp reduction in business confidence backs this assessment, with the threat of higher inflation, prolonged supply-side disruption and heightened near-term uncertainty prompting a re-evaluation of the outlook."

Context

The French S&P Composite PMI flash for March came in below expectations, pointing to potential economic stagnation as businesses face soaring input costs and significant delivery delays. This underperformance likely reflects waning demand and rising inflation concerns, suggesting the recovery may be stalling. Traders should watch for implications on European growth forecasts and potential shifts in monetary policy as we assess the broader economic landscape in coming months.

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