Goldman Sachs expects the BoE to hike rates by 25bp in November 2026 (vs previous forecast for rates to remain unchanged)

Bank forecast revisions of this kind are common in the run-up to meetings where the inflation data have been running against a central bank's stated tolerance, and a house moving from on-hold to a hike is the more consequential flavour of revision since it signals the seller's economists now see the committee's reaction function as live rather than dormant. A single bank's call, however prominent, tends to move front-end pricing only modestly on its own; what has historically shifted SONIA curves is clustering, when several houses converge on the same direction within days and the market reads it as a consensus read on the data rather than an outlier view. The relevant channel is the short end, with a hawkish revision steepening the gap between market pricing and the bank's implied path, and sterling typically taking its cue from the rate differential rather than the headline itself. The distinction worth drawing is whether this reflects a change in the data outlook or a change in the perceived reaction function; the former is fragile to the next CPI and labour prints, the latter more durable. Follow-ons are whether peer houses echo the call, how MPC commentary around the interim period frames the persistence of inflation, and the scheduling of the relevant releases ahead of the meeting in question. As a forecast change rather than a decision, the information content is directional.