Goldman Sachs, on the SCOTUS ruling, write that the implication is "... mildly supportive for equities and mildly negative for bonds… but largely priced for both."

Goldman Sachs indicates that the recent SCOTUS ruling is likely to bring about slightly fewer tariffs but increase trade uncertainty, which they view as mildly supportive for equities while being mildly negative for bonds.

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Goldman Sachs, on the SCOTUS ruling, write that the implication is "... mildly supportive for equities and mildly negative for bonds… but largely priced for both."

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Remarks:

  • "This won’t be the end of tariffs… the administration will almost certainly roll out alternative legal frameworks. Net result is probably slightly fewer tariffs, materially more trade uncertainty, and some incremental deficit concerns. Net-net, that’s mildly supportive for equities and mildly negative for bonds… but largely priced for both."
  • "Using Sec. 122 to quickly replace the 10-15% tariff most countries face while Sec. 301 investigations are under way would allow the administration to replicate most of the IEEPA tariffs using more legally solid authority. However, Sec. 301 investigations are time-consuming and it is unclear whether the administration would pursue these for smaller trading partners."
Context

However, they believe this outlook is largely priced in already. Traders should consider how this may affect the broader risk sentiment in the markets, especially in terms of asset allocation between equities and fixed income.

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