JP Morgan forecasts 1.9 MMT primary aluminium deficit in 2026, driven by a 2.4 MMT hit to Middle Eastern supply

JP Morgan's forecast of a 1.9 MMT primary aluminium deficit in 2026, driven by significant Middle Eastern supply disruptions, suggests tightening conditions in the aluminium market.

Newsquawk StaffPublished 13 Apr 2026, 10:38 UTCOn the live feed at 10:18 UTC — 5 more headlines followed before this page went public

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10:22

German spokesperson says Germany is assuming a US blockade of Iranian ports, not of the Strait of Hormuz

10:21

UBS raises its Brent forecast to USD 100/bbl to end-June, USD 95/bbl by end-September and USD 90/bbl end-December

10:18

JP Morgan forecasts 1.9 MMT primary aluminium deficit in 2026, driven by a 2.4 MMT hit to Middle Eastern supply

10:17

ECB's Vujcic says energy prices are still very close to the ECB's baseline scenario

10:17

France to sell EUR-denominated Jun 2037 Green Oat via Syndicate, according to the French Debt Agency

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Holds a baseline view that spot aluminium prices have an upside potential to reach USD 4k/MT and above, in the coming months.
Forecasts Q2'26 average of USD 3.8/MT for aluminium as the scale of the supply disruption becomes increasingly evident in physical market.

Context

This is likely to elevate spot prices, with expectations of reaching USD 4k/MT, indicating potential inflationary pressures and opportunities for commodities-focused portfolios.

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