JP Morgan forecasts 1.9 MMT primary aluminium deficit in 2026, driven by a 2.4 MMT hit to Middle Eastern supply
Newsquawk Staff ·
- Holds a baseline view that spot aluminium prices have an upside potential to reach USD 4k/MT and above, in the coming months.
- Forecasts Q2'26 average of USD 3.8/MT for aluminium as the scale of the supply disruption becomes increasingly evident in physical market.
What it means
JP Morgan's forecast of a 1.9 MMT primary aluminium deficit in 2026, driven by significant Middle Eastern supply disruptions, suggests tightening conditions in the aluminium market. This is likely to elevate spot prices, with expectations of reaching USD 4k/MT, indicating potential inflationary pressures and opportunities for commodities-focused portfolios.
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