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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Antipodeans gain following recent losses; DXY edges lower after Wednesday's advances

The DXY's recent decline suggests a shift in market sentiment, influenced by geopolitical tensions and upcoming U.S.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 4 more headlines followed before this page went public
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US President Trump and his advisors have reportedly indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, NY Times reports. Instead, the US could have bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico.

France sells EUR 13.497bln vs exp. EUR 11.5-13.5bln 2.40% 2029, 2.70% 2031, and 2.00% 2032 OAT

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Antipodeans gain following recent losses; DXY edges lower after Wednesday's advances

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Bonds hold a bearish bias, continuing the pressure seen in the prior session

[MARKET ANALYSIS] European equities broadly lower as Airbus misses on 2026 aircraft deliveries; US equity futures modestly paring back Wednesday's gains

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  • DXY has waned from overnight highs after advancing yesterday and overnight amid better-than-expected data and as oil prices surged after sources noted the Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise. Focus was also on the FOMC Minutes, which largely encapsulated the statement in the January meeting and was largely a non-event for the Buck, but rather interesting for USD/JPY (see below for details). On the US docket ahead, weekly initial jobless claims (which coincide with the traditional survey window for the BLS' February jobs data) are expected little changed at 225k (prev. 227k), while continuing claims (this week does not coincide with the BLS window) are seen unchanged at 1.87mln. December's advanced goods trade balance and the Philly Fed manufacturing data for February will also be released. The Atlanta Fed will update its GDPnow tracking estimate after today's data; yesterday, the gauge was revised down to 3.6% in Q4 (from 3.7%). DXY resides in a current 97.572-97.777 range at the time of writing.
  • JPY is narrowly softer but off worst levels, with USD/JPY hovering around its 100 DMA (154.744), with some fleeting strength seen yesterday in wake of the FOMC minutes in which the Fed confirmed it did a USD/JPY rate check on behalf of the US Treasury in January. Analysts at ING highlight that "Something like this is extremely rare in foreign exchange markets and is a sign of a more activist White House when it comes to FX. The move was clearly designed to deliver maximum impact and reflects the shared desire from both Washington and Tokyo that USD/JPY does not sustain a move through 160". The desk adds that they think "there will now be good interest to sell USD/JPY in the 156/158 area from the asset management community." USD/JPY resides towards the bottom end of a 154.62-155.34 range.
  • EUR trims some of yesterday's losses after briefly slipping beneath the 1.1800 level (to a 1.1782 low on Wednesday) as the buck strengthened, and with the single currency not helped by conflicting reports about ECB President Lagarde's future. Recent reports suggested ECB President Lagarde reportedly tells colleagues that she would tell them first if she were to step down, according to sources; colleagues reportedly interpreted this to mean her departure is not immediate, but the door is not closed. EUR/USD resides towards the top end of a 1.1781-1.1808 range vs yesterday's 1.1782-1.1858 band. GBP/USD meanwhile is flat on either side of the 1.3500 mark in a 1.3480-1.3517 range intraday.
  • Antipodeans outperform amid recent underperformance and following positive risk appetite in APAC (before waning in European hours), with AUD/USD supported following the mixed jobs data, which showed headline employment change slightly missed expectations, although the unemployment rate printed lower than expected, and the increase in jobs was solely fuelled by full-time work.
Context

economic releases. The Antipodean currencies are gaining traction after recent losses, buoyed by mixed jobs data from Australia which, while showing a slight miss on employment change, indicated a lower unemployment rate. This dynamic highlights a positive risk appetite for AUD, positioned against expectations for U.S. economic data and broader central bank actions.

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