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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Bearish start for fixed into data and speakers

The fixed income market is starting off on a bearish note, with USTs and Bunds facing pressure despite light news flow.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 2 more headlines followed before this page went public
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Weaker sentiment across most indices; Basic Resources the biggest underperformer due to lower metal prices

Russia's President Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are on a phone call together, according to Tass

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Bearish start for fixed into data and speakers

China's smartphone makers reportedly slash full year orders, Jiemian News reports; Xiaomi (1810 HK) and Oppo cut by 20% and Viva roughly 15%

Italian Inflation Rate MoM Final (Dec) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)

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  • A contained start for fixed income benchmarks, though the bias is increasingly bearish.
  • Newsflow has been light. USTs in a very thin sub-five tick range just above the 112-00 mark into an afternoon once again dictated by, on paper at least, data and Fed speak.
  • Bunds under increasing pressure into the morning, pressure that has emerged without a clear or overt fundamental driver. Down to a 128.26 base with downside of 17 ticks at most. No reaction to unrevised inflation from Germany and Italy, while the European docket ahead is light today before picking up next week with several key ECB speakers at the Davos WEF, including President Lagarde.
  • OATs lag in Europe, down by 20 ticks at worst to a 121.01 base. Action that has lifted the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread above 68bps, though the above Bund pressure is stemming the downside. OATs hit by fresh fiscal and, by extension, political uncertainty, see the 08:25GMT analysis for details.
  • Gilts opened on the backfoot, with losses of six ticks and have since extended to a 92.27 low, -21 ticks at most. Pressure that is a function of catch-up to the bearish action that was seen in the latter part of Thursday's US session, the morning's bearish bias, and reports that the ONS might be delaying the new labour data by six months.
Context

The lack of clear fundamental drivers, along with upcoming Fed and ECB commentary, suggests that any market movements may hinge on sentiment rather than hard data. This bearish bias could reflect growing concerns about inflation and the impact of upcoming economic indicators on central bank policy.

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