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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Brent buoyed amid US-Iran threat exchange; metals slump amid continued hawkish repricing

The recent escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions is underpinning crude oil prices, particularly Brent, as fears of supply disruptions loom large.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Brent buoyed amid US-Iran threat exchange; metals slump amid continued hawkish repricing

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  • Firmer price action across crude after US President Trump at the weekend threatened attacks on power plants around the Strait of Hormuz if Iran does not open the Strait by Monday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if US President Trump executes threats to target Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not reopen until damaged plants are rebuilt. Furthermore, Iranian Parliamentary speaker suggested if “power plants and infrastructure in our country are targeted, the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed in an irreversible manner, and the price of oil will remain high for a long time”. This morning, Iran's Defense Council threatened to deploy naval mines across the 'entire Persian Gulf' if a land invasion happens, AP reported.
  • Prior to the 48-hour deadline, US President Trump posted “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran.” Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump suggested the waterway “will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”
  • Crude prices rose overnight as investors assessed Trump’s ultimatum; Brent climbed toward USD 114.43/bbl (vs low 110.22/bbl) and WTI rise to a USD 101.67/bbl peak before waning to sub-USD 100/bbl and then a bit more, with the US largely cushioned from the Middle Eastern supply woes given domestic production capabilities.
  • Spot gold has now erased its 2026 gains, falling again as the Middle East war, now in its fourth week, increased inflation risks and expectations that central banks will struggle to lower rates. The bullion has fallen from a USD 4,536/oz peak down to USD 4,099.02/oz in just today’s session thus far, and found support just above its 200 DMA (USD 4,090.97/oz) before rebounding to ~USD 4,250/oz.
  • In terms of base metals, copper fell to its lowest in more than three months amid the reduced risk appetite, inflation and growth concerns. 3M LME copper resides sub-USD 12k/t in a current USD 11,707.00- 11,911.00/t range. Elsewhere, Mysteel Global suggested Chinese copper inventories had their biggest weekly drop this year, as the rapid slump in prices of the metal amid the Iran war kept demand afloat.
Context

Meanwhile, the perceived impact on inflation and central bank policies is driving a downturn in the metals market, with gold and copper experiencing significant price declines amid heightened risk aversion. Traders should remain vigilant of these geopolitical developments, as they could shift market dynamics across energy and metals sectors.

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