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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Brent hovers around USD 100/bbl and metals dragged by a firmer USD

Brent crude prices have crossed the significant USD 100/bbl threshold, primarily influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions associated with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Brent hovers around USD 100/bbl and metals dragged by a firmer USD

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  • WTI and Brent futures are off their best and worst levels at the time of writing, with traders gearing up for another week of geopolitical risks as the war shows no signs of abating. Yesterday, Brent settled above USD 100/bbl for the first time since August 2022 - prices have remained elevated after Iran’s new leader said the country would keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, while an IRGC official warned that if Iran’s energy infrastructure is attacked, it will burn the region’s oil and gas infrastructure. Meanwhile, the US issued a second short-term waiver allowing buyers to receive Russian oil already at sea, expanding a previous India-only authorisation without materially benefiting the Russian government. Modest downticks were seen in the complex following an Axios report that US President Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting Wednesday that Iran is "about to surrender," according to three officials from G7 countries briefed on the contents of the call, although the report caveats that 24 hours later after that call, Iran's new supreme leader issued his first public statement vowing to keep fighting. WTI resides in a USD 94.52-98.09/bbl range and Brent in a 99.51-102.75/bbl range. Nat Gas prices are flat at the time of writing, but remain above EUR 50/MWh amid the ongoing energy woes emerging from the Iranian crisis.
  • Spot gold rose above USD 5,100/oz overnight and hovers on either side of the figure in recent trade, but still remains on track for a second weekly decline, as the Middle East conflict keeps oil near USD 100/bbl and in turn pushes up the USD (DXY north of 100) amid inflationary woes. Spot gold resides in a USD 5,061.32-5,128.47/oz. Spot silver resides closer to weekly lows after finding resistance at USD 90/oz on Tuesday.
  • In terms of base metals, 3M LME copper is on a softer footing amid the firmer USD and with sentiment also dampened as the US opened a Section 301 probe into forced-labour practices across 60 economies, including the EU, China, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, India, Taiwan and the UK. Iron is set for its biggest weekly gain in more than a year after China state-backed buyers expanded restrictions on BHP Group (BHP AT) products, and as Chinese mills moved BHP ore from port stockpiles to plants ahead of possible curbs. Aluminium fell from its highest level since 2022, with other metals also declining, as concern over the economic impact of a prolonged Middle East war weighed; despite supply disruption-driven gains for the week, traders are also assessing the risk to metals demand if higher energy costs weaken global growth. Elsewhere, the US, Japan and the EU plan a critical minerals trade agreement including a price floor and tariffs to counter Chinese market distortions; the announcement could reportedly be made in the coming weeks.
Context

While energy prices remain elevated, a firmer USD is placing downward pressure on metals, indicating a potential shift in demand dynamics that could impact future growth prospects globally. This situation is complicated by rising inflationary pressures, which could further influence market behavior in commodities and broader asset classes.

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