[MARKET ANALYSIS] Choppy crude trade as geopolitics dictate the tape; precious metals recover

WTI and Brent front-month futures are off their best levels after opening higher overnight in reaction to the military escalation, before waning in early European hours on continued efforts for diplomacy. To recap, the US and Iran ramped up their exchange of strikes following the death of a couple of US service members due to Iran attacking Jordan on Friday, while CENTCOM announced the 9th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, and Iran continued to retaliate against US interests and allies. Thereafter, initial weakness this morning emanated from reports that Pakistan's Interior Ministry says the Iranian Interior Minister arrives in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, today. The downside was further exacerbated by commentary from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei, who said negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests; Intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days. Further, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said it will not abandon talks with the US, but Iran's sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable.
Price action this morning has largely followed headlines. Brent Sep’26 hit an overnight peak of USD 91.42/bbl before moving back to lows of USD 87.94/bbl. Similarly, WTI Sep’26 notched a current high at 84.60/bbl before falling to a USD 81.31/bbl trough at the time of writing. Ahead, there could be some risk around 13:00BST as the Yemeni Armed Forces said “an announcement of an important position” will be made at that time. The announcement comes amid reports that Iran has urged Houthi forces to stand ready to close the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait oil route if the US-led military campaign further intensifies. Elsewhere, Dutch TTF prices have followed similar price action to crude oil counterparts, but remain slightly more lifted intraday, with analysts at ING highlighting that the gas market is more vulnerable to these supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Precious metals remain in a narrow range but have lifted off worst levels in tandem with the Dollar easing in lockstep with oil. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,982-USD 4,030/oz range. Spot silver has picked up momentum in recent trade, back on a USD 57/oz handle vs lows of USD 55.50/oz. Base metals are mixed and continue with similar price action seen during APAC hours. Copper futures eke out mild gains alongside the outperformance in red metal's largest buyer overnight.